Australia
23:45 - South-eastern Queensland state: Expect residual disruption over coming hours following adverse weather
Expect residual disruption in south-eastern Queensland over the coming hours following heavy rainfall and flooding on 22 October. North of Brisbane, particularly in the Burpengary, Caboolture and Morayfield areas (all Queensland state), flooding has caused hazardous driving conditions and prompted road closures. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has lifted all severe thunderstorm warnings for affected areas, though further moderate to heavy rainfall remains possible over the coming days. Additional road closures, transport delays and localised infrastructure disruption are likely if heavy rainfall persists.
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Mexico
22:25 - Veracruz state: Exercise caution, expect disruption over coming days due to severe weather
Exercise caution and expect disruption in parts of Veracruz state over the coming days due to severe weather. Recent heavy rainfall has triggered landslides, evacuations and flooding along several rivers, including the Agua Dulcita and Coatzacoalcos. At least 11 people have died in weather-related incidents statewide. The most severe damage has been reported in southern areas, including Coatzacoalcos, Nanchital and the Los Tuxtlas region. As of 22 October, conditions are gradually improving and river levels are receding, though further heavy rainfall remains possible, particularly in mountainous areas. Recovery and relief operations are underway.
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Europe & CIS
21:21 - Exercise caution, expect disruption until 25 October amid passage of storm systems
Exercise caution and expect disruption in France, Ireland and the UK until 25 October amid the passage of Storm Austen and Storm Boelo. Red wind warnings (highest on a three-tier scale) have been issued for the northern coast of France, along with orange warnings (middle) for inland areas, including the capital Paris. The warnings are valid until at least 23.00 (local time) on 23 October. In the UK, amber wind warnings (middle on a three-tier scale) are in place for south-western England from 01.00 until at least 10.00 on 23 October. Orange rain warnings (middle on a three-tier scale) are also in effect for Ireland’s south-western counties until at least 05.00 on 23 October. Further warnings are likely as the storm systems move northward on 24-25 October.
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Paraguay
19:58 - Asuncion: Expect heightened security, abide by official directives following recent threats against universities
Expect heightened security and abide by official directives over the coming days following several recent threats made against universities in the capital Asuncion. According to local media, the Universidad Americana main campus was evacuated on 21 October after hand-written notes threatening a shooting attack were found on the premises. The university has suspended all in-person classes and activities until 23 October. This comes after theUniversidad Nacional de Asuncion was similarly evacuated on 16 October after receiving threats of a bombing attack by email. Both incidents prompted security operations, and the authorities are reportedly investigating whether they are connected. Further threats are possible at other universities in the capital.
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Chile
19:50 - Central regions: Exercise caution, expect weather-related disruption over coming days
Exercise caution and expect weather-related disruption over the coming days in central regions, including the capital Santiago. The Chilean Meteorological Directorate (DMC) has issued an orange alert (middle on a three-tier scale) for moderate-to-heavy rainfall in parts of Maule and Nuble regions through 22 October. Additionally, the National Service for Disaster Prevention and Response (SENAPRED) has warned of convective weather and tornado risks in Biobio, Los Lagos, Los Rios, Maule and Nuble regions until late 22 October. A tornado reportedly touched down near Retiro (Maule) on 21 October, damaging three homes.
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Guadeloupe (France)
19:49 - Expect disruption over coming days amid protests, associated roadblocks
Expect disruption over the coming days amid protests and associated roadblocks. The Nou Las Pale collective has organised recent demonstrations over cost-of-living issues and intermittently blocked major roadways, including the N1 highway. Representatives from the government and the collective have so far failed to reach an agreement to resolve the dispute. Several shops were reportedly looted, and three police officers were injured after protests in Pointe-a-Pitre turned unruly on 17 and 18 October. The police are liable to forcibly disperse any further unruly gatherings, posing incidental risks to bystanders. Reconfirm the status of routes before setting out and plan journeys accordingly.
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Mid East & N Africa
19:48 - Abide by official directives, ensure contingency plans are up to date amid heightened regional tensions
Abide by official directives and ensure contingency plans are up to date in Israel and the Palestinian Territories due to heightened regional tensions. We assess that hostilities between US/Israeli forces and Iran are likely to resume over the coming two to three weeks, which would likely prompt Iranian aerial attacks against Israel. Meanwhile, tensions also persist over continued Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, as well as settler violence in the West Bank (both Palestinian Territories). Continue to defer all non-essential travel to Israel and the West Bank amid the increased likelihood of resumed conflict with Iran.
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Worldwide travel
18:35 - Regional conflict likely to resume in coming weeks; review, implement crisis preparedness measures
The likelihood of the resumption of the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US has increased in recent days. The hostilities are likely to resume within the next two to three weeks. Israel is more likely to defer military action until after both the Israeli elections on 27 October and the US midterm elections on 3 November. However, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may persuade the US to restart operations against Iran ahead of elections if polling remains unfavourable. Iran increased attacks against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz throughout October. That can serve as basis for the US to restart its campaign. This, however, will be more likely after the US elections.
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Ethiopia
17:24 - Afar, Amhara, Tigray states: Defer all travel following as fighting persists
Defer all travel to Afar, Amhara and Tigray states following the resumption of hostilities in northern Ethiopia between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) have taken control of main urban centres in Tigray, including the regional capital Mekelle. The TPLF has retreated to rural areas, from which it regularly launches offensive into ENDF-held territory. Meanwhile, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea remain heightened, with troop build-up reported on the shared border. This follows accusations by Ethiopia that Eritrea was supporting the TPLF. Earlier, the TPLF and six regional armed groups announced an alliance against the federal government.
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China
17:14 - SPECIAL ADVISORY: Tibet autonomous region: Continue to exercise caution following magnitude 7.0 earthquake east-north-east of Nagqu (Revised)
Continue to exercise caution and follow official directives in the coming hours after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck at 22.33 (local time) on 22 October. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the temblor originated approximately 114 miles (183km) east-north-east of Nagqu (Tibet autonomous region), at a depth of around six miles (10km). At least two aftershocks have been recorded since the initial earthquake, with the strongest measuring at magnitude 5.2. Local media reports indicate that at least 18 people have been killed and 32 others injured. The authorities have activated Level 4 (lowest on a four-tier scale) and Level 2 (second-highest) emergency responses in Baqen county (Nagqu). Rescue and damage-assessment teams have been dispatched to the affected areas.
TSPECIAL ADVISORY
South Africa
17:06 - George, Pinetown: Expect disruption on 25 October during planned power outages
Expect disruption on 25 October in George (Western Cape province) and Pinetown (KwaZulu-Natal province) during power outages scheduled to facilitate maintenance and repair work. Outages will affect parts of George between 08.00 and 16.00 (local time), and parts of Pinetown between 07.00 and 19.00. Expect short-term disruption to travel and essential services in these locations.
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Argentina
16:48 - Exercise caution, expect weather-related disruption over coming hours
Exercise caution and expect weather-related disruption over the coming hours across several provinces. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has issued orange alerts (middle of a three-tier scale, meaning ‘be prepared’) for thunderstorms in parts of Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Corrientes, Entre Rios, La Pampa, Neuquen, San Luis, Santa Fe and Rio Negro provinces. These alerts will remain in effect through 22 October. Affected areas could receive up to two inches (5cm) of rainfall. Adverse weather conditions are liable to cause short-notice disruption to travel and essential services.
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United States
United States
15:23 - Navajo county (Arizona): Expect residual disruption near Heber-Overgaard following tornado touchdown (Revised)
Expect residual disruption and exercise caution in Navajo county (Arizona state) over the coming hours following a probable tornado touchdown on 21 October. Although an official confirmation is pending, the suspected tornado is reportedly believed to have touched down near Heber-Overgaard (Navajo county) around 20.00 (local time). Local media reported widespread power outages and significant damage to residences and other structures in the area. According to the authorities, at least one person was injured. Expect a heightened emergency services presence in the affected area and follow all official directives.
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Réunion (France)
14:50 - Expect heightened security, disruption over coming days due to possible protests
Expect heightened security and disruption over the coming days due to possible protests. The authorities have announced the deployment of an additional 68 security personnel following unrest on 17-18 October. Hundreds of demonstrators, including Yellow Vests supporters, gathered across the island over several grievances. At least 18 people were detained, and 11 French police officers and gendarmes were injured. Further related gatherings and protests are possible in the coming days. Demonstrators are likely to erect roadblocks, set objects alight and throw projectiles. The police are liable to forcibly disperse unruly gatherings, posing incidental risks to bystanders.
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France
13:23 - Urban centres: Avoid rallies in coming days due to risk of unrest; follow official directives
Avoid student-led rallies in urban centres over the coming days due to a heightened risk of unrest. Although initially organised as peaceful protests calling for a substantial increase in government spending on education, related gatherings since 17 October have been marked by recurrent looting, vandalism, barricades, firework attacks and clashes with the police. Temporary curfews and protest bans are in place across the country. The situation will likely remain tense in the coming days, carrying an ongoing risk of opportunistic crime and public disorder. The police will continue to respond to unrest forcibly using tear gas and water cannon, posing incidental risks to bystanders. They may impose further restrictions on gatherings over the coming hours.
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Georgia
12:47 - Tbilisi: Plan journeys on 25 October bypassing opposition-led demonstration at Tbilisi State University
Plan journeys on 25 October in the capital Tbilisi bypassing a scheduled opposition-led demonstration. Participants will gather from 19.00 (local time) at Tbilisi State University. The event has been organised to denounce ongoing legal proceedings reportedly seeking to ban several opposition parties. Heightened security and associated traffic disruption are likely in the area. The police are liable to use forcible measures to disperse the rally if it turns unruly. Any associated disturbances would pose incidental risks to bystanders.
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South Africa
12:09 - Expect, avoid further anti-immigration demonstrations over coming days
Expect further anti-immigration rallies in urban centres over the coming days and avoid them. On 22 October, a group of anti-immigration protesters allegedly killed a foreign national during a demonstration on Dr Pixley kaSeme Street in central Durban (KwaZulu-Natal province). Recently, movements such as March and March and Operation Dudula have organised countrywide demonstrations against illegal immigration. Intimidation, harassment and clashes between protesters and foreign nationals have been reported during demonstrations. The police are likely to use baton charges and tear gas to control crowds, posing incidental risks to bystanders.
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Philippines
11:45 - Expect heightened security, travel disruption during religious holiday period from 24 October-3 November
Expect significant disruption ahead of the All Saints’ and All Souls’ days (locally known as Undas) holidays on 1 and 2 November, respectively. Around 2,400 security force personnel will be deployed in Metro Manila to control traffic and provide assistance from 24 October to 3 November. Nationwide, security force personnel will be deployed at cemeteries, memorial parks and columbaria, as well as on major roads. The government has declared public holidays on 1 and 2 November, which will result in a reduction of government and commercial business hours. Pre-book transport and accommodation well in advance and plan journeys accounting for travel delays.
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Chile
11:40 - Santiago: Plan journeys on 24 October accounting for disruption during religious demonstration
Plan journeys on 24 October accounting for disruption in the capital Santiago during a religious demonstration dubbed ‘March for Jesus’. Participants will gather from 16.30 (local time) in front of Estacion Mapocho Cultural Center, Universidad Catolica metro station, Union Lationamericana metro station and at the intersection of Calle San Diego and Avenida Santa Isabel. They will then march to Bandejon de la Plaza de La Ciudadania. While we expect the gathering to pass off peacefully, it is liable to disrupt traffic along its route and be accompanied by a heightened security presence.
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Saudi Arabia
10:06 - Defer non-essential travel until at least 30 October amid heightened risk of aerial attacks
Defer non-essential travel to Saudi Arabia until at least 30 October amid a heightened risk of aerial attacks. The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) reported an attack on King Fahd International Airport (DMM) on 21 October in Dammam (Eastern province). Earlier in the day, drone and missile interceptions were reported, with debris causing damage at the Shaybah oil facility (Eastern). The incidents killed four people and injured ten others. Saudi Arabia’s support for military operations against the Yemen-based Houthi group will sustain the heightened risk of cross-border aerial attacks in the coming days.
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India
08:58 - Tamil Nadu state: Plan travel accounting for heavy rainfall until 26 October due to low-pressure area
Plan travel accounting for heavy rainfall until at least 26 October in parts of Tamil Nadu state due to a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. The regional meteorological centre has issued orange alerts (second-highest on a four-tier scale) for rainfall in western and southern districts, including Coimbatore, Kanniyakumari and Madurai. Moderate rainfall forecast in the state capital Chennai during this period will likely trigger localised waterlogging. Disruption to travel, including air travel, is possible. Forecasts indicate that another low pressure area is expected to form on 23 October in Bay of Bengal, prompting further rainfall in the coming days.
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Jamaica
05:48 - Kingston: Exercise caution, follow official directives over coming days amid curfew extension
Exercise caution and follow official directives in the capital Kingston over the coming days amid a curfew extension. Imposed on 21 October, the curfew will be in effect until at least 18.00 (local time) on 23 October, with further, short-notice extensions possible. Affected areas include communities in Kingston parish between the Happy Grove community, Chisholm Avenue, the Duhaney river, Kingston Harbour and the coastline near East Avenue. The authorities have not provided a reason for the curfew, though it follows similar, prior curfews implemented during ongoing security operations. Expect a heightened security presence in the affected areas.
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United States
03:57 - Toledo (Ohio state): Continue to avoid area near 1266 Progress Avenue following chemical leak
Continue to avoid the area around 1266 Progress Avenue in Toledo (Ohio state) over the coming hours following a chemical leak late on 20 October. Although the initial shelter-in-place order has been lifted and evacuation zone reduced, the authorities continue to investigate the cause of the incident. Several people reportedly experienced potentially related symptoms and were taken to hospital. One emergency responder was also reportedly injured while responding to the incident. Several streets remain blocked off, and reduced visibility has been reported due to the chemical plume. Follow all official directives.
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Ukraine
03:02 - SPECIAL ADVISORY: Kyiv: Continue to abide by official directives following Russian aerial attack (Revised)
Continue to abide by official directives in the capital Kyiv over the coming hours following Russian aerial attacks earlier on 22 October. According to local sources, a medical facility in the Pecherskyi district has been damaged and a fire broke out at a restaurant in the Sviatoshynskyi district. The authorities have restricted traffic along the Pivdennyi Bridge following the attack. There are no reports of injuries thus far. Emergency services remain in the affected areas co-ordinating response efforts. Air-raid sirens can be activated at short notice during further aerial attacks.
TSPECIAL ADVISORY
Venezuela
00:12 - Urban centres: Plan journeys bypassing opposition-led demonstrations on 22 October
Plan journeys bypassing opposition-led demonstrations in urban centres on 22 October. The Comando con Venezuela organisation, led by Maria Corina Machado, has called for nationwide demonstrations to demand the National Electoral Council publish a definitive timetable for the presidential election. Exact locations and timings of the protests are yet to be announced. The security forces are liable to forcibly disperse protesters, posing incidental risks to bystanders.
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Mid East & N Africa
00:09 - Expect heightened security, avoid associated protests linked to 27 October legislative election
On 27 October, Israelis will elect representatives to the 120-seat Israeli parliament (Knesset). The election will be closely contested as it comes amid heightened tensions with Iran and military operations in the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories) and southern Lebanon (see separate alerts). Enhanced security measures will reportedly be deployed to more than 20,000 polling stations nationwide. Anti-government demonstrations remain the primary security concern, with protests liable to occur before and after polling day. Travellers should continue to defer all non-essential travel to Israel due to regional tensions.
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French Polynesia (France)
00:09 - Reconfirm flights with regional carrier from 22 October if indefinite strike proceeds
Reconfirm flights with regional carrier Air Tahiti from 22 October ahead of a possible indefinite strike. Unionised ground and flight crew have called the industrial action over several perceived grievances, including poor working conditions. Flight delays and cancellations are likely if the strike proceeds, while related demonstrations may take place in or around airports.
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Saudi Arabia
00:00 - SPECIAL ADVISORY: Dammam (Eastern province): Continue to abide by official directives following airstrike targeting international airport (Revised)
Continue to abide by official directives over the coming hours following an airstrike targeting King Fahd International Airport (DMM) in Dammam (Eastern province). The General Authority of Civil Aviation confirmed the attack occurred late on 21 October. At least one person was killed and eight others injured. The authorities are currently assessing the airport for material damage. It remains unclear if operations at the airport are suspended amid emergency response operations. Expect flight delays and cancellations. The attack comes amid increased airstrikes from the Yemen-based Houthi group (see related alert).
TSPECIAL ADVISORY
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