Global issues | Worldwide travel | Update

Level: Advisory
Location: Bahrain; Cyprus; Egypt; Iran; Iraq; Israel; Jordan; Kuwait; Lebanon; Oman; Palestinian Territories; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; Syria; Türkiye; United Arab Emirates (UAE); Yemen
Category: Conflict

Regional tensions persist despite a reduction in hostilities. US-Iran tensions remain elevated, with no tangible progress toward bringing the two parties back to the negotiating table. On 19 August, Iran reiterated its warning to Gulf states against supporting or facilitating US military operations targeting Iran. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman continue discussions on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. On 17 August, Iran reported that both sides had agreed on a map of transit routes through the strait and were working to finalise a formal agreement. Despite the broader de-escalation in hostilities, sporadic security incidents continue to be reported across the region.

Advice

• Continue to closely monitor regional developments as situation remains fluid and the risk of further exchanges of hostilities, associated airspace and flight disruption persists. Maintain flexible itineraries and be ready to postpone travel at short notice.
• Exercise caution and be ready to shelter in place in the event of an aerial attack. Follow all directives issued by the authorities where applicable.

Inbound travel

• Normal travel to and transit through Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) can proceed. Where possible, avoid areas at heightened risk of aerial attacks, particularly military installations hosting US personnel in these countries.
• Essential travel to Iraq and parts of Syria, including the capital Damascus, can proceed but requires a comprehensive, profile-specific pre-trip risk assessment and professional security, logistical and medical support.
• Defer all non-essential travel to Israel and the West Bank (Palestinian Territories) amid heightened regional tensions. Defer all travel to the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories). People intending to travel to Gaza should contact us for itinerary- and profile-specific security advice.
• Defer all inbound travel to Iran until further notice. Foreign nationals and foreign business travellers currently in Iran should depart via commercially available options.
• Defer all travel to Lebanon until further notice amid continuous violations of the ceasefire by Israel and Hizbullah. This is due to the possibility of the resumption of a full-scale Israeli air campaign in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, an Israeli air campaign in the eastern and southern areas of Lebanon, separate ground operations in southern Lebanon and broader regional instability. People in Lebanon should evacuate using commercial options while they are available.
• This advice is not exhaustive. Refer to our website or reach out to the nearest Assistance Centre for more detailed advice.

More detail

Impact

On 18 August, the UAE’s defence ministry reported that two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran, targeting its maritime navigation. Both missiles were successfully intercepted, while Iranian authorities denied responsibility for the attack. Following the incident, UAE authorities announced an indefinite trade embargo on Iran.

Separately, on 18 August, the Yemen-based Houthi rebel group claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia's Jazan Province. Saudi authorities have not confirmed the incident. The claim was the latest in a series of attacks attributed to the group against Saudi Arabia (see related alert).

Maritime tensions

Meanwhile, maritime security incidents continue to be reported in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. On 18 August, a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by a projectile, resulting in one fatality and causing material damage. Such sporadic attacks on commercial shipping continue despite reported progress in Iran-Oman talks, underscoring persistent underlying regional tensions.

Similarly, on 17 August, the Houthis claimed responsibility for missile attacks targeting a Saudi military vessel and four escort ships in the Red Sea. This comes amid its maritime blockade campaign against the kingdom.

Outlook

Reported progress in Iran-Oman negotiations regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz represents a positive development. Should an agreement be reached, it is likely to contribute to greater regional stability and reduce the risk of maritime disruptions.

However, any progress achieved through bilateral arrangements between Iran and Oman is likely to remain vulnerable to wider geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran. The US has not been directly involved in the talks on the management of the strait and has not thus far indicate willingness to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports.

While both the US and Iran currently appear keen to avoid a return to large-scale hostilities, unresolved tensions between the two sustain the risk of further confrontations across the region.

Amid persisting tensions, countries hosting US military interests, and those perceived by Iran to support US operations against it, will remain exposed to the risk of further attacks by Iran and its allied groups. While countries across the region generally possess air defence capabilities that can mitigate the impact of such attacks, these systems are not foolproof. Even successful interceptions can result in falling debris that poses risks to civilian infrastructure and may cause material damage or casualties. These risks underscore the importance of adhering to official directives, including emergency guidance and shelter-in-place orders, in the event of an aerial attack.

Regional tensions are also likely to be accompanied by further disruption to maritime activity. Commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Saudi-linked shipping operating in the Red Sea, are likely to remain exposed to the threat of attacks, sustaining elevated risks to maritime operations and regional supply chains.

Escalatory triggers

• US military operations against Iran resume (not met)
• Israel joins US operations against Iran (not met)
• A spike in frequency of Iranian attacks across the region (not met)
• Iranian attacks result in casualties among US personnel in the region (not met)
• Iranian military activity inflicts a high number of civilian casualties and significant damage to civilian infrastructure (not met)
• Iran expands the scope of its operations beyond US military targets to other critical and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, ports, airports and infrastructure involved in the provision of essential services, such as water and electricity (not met)

De-escalatory triggers

• Iran and Oman reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz (not met)
• US lifts blockade on Iranian ports (not met)
• US-Iran negotiations gain momentum (not met)
• Iran and the US reach a new ceasefire/peace agreement (not met)
• Houthis lift maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (not met)

Level: Advisory
Location: Angola; Benin; Botswana; Burkina Faso; Burundi; Cameroon; Cape Verde; Central African Republic; Chad; Comoros; Congo; Congo (DRC); Côte d'Ivoire; Djibouti; Equatorial Guinea; Eritrea; Eswatini; Ethiopia; Gabon; Gambia; Ghana; Guinea; Guinea-Bissau; Kenya; Lesotho; Liberia; Madagascar; Malawi; Mali; Mauritius; Mayotte (France); Mozambique; Namibia; Niger; Nigeria; Réunion (France); Rwanda; Uganda; São Tomé and Príncipe; Senegal; Seychelles; Sierra Leone; Somalia; South Africa; South Sudan; Sudan; Tanzania; Togo; Zambia; Zimbabwe
Category: Infrastructure outage, Transport disruption, Protest/Rally, Strike

Monitor developments related to fuel supplies over the coming weeks in sub-Saharan Africa due to the impact of Middle East conflict (see related alerts). Although widespread fuel restrictions have not been imposed, sustained disruption could prompt such measures in the short-to-medium term. Rising fuel costs may exacerbate socio-economic pressures, increasing the likelihood of protests, industrial action and transport disruption. Although our travel advice for sub-Saharan Africa remains unchanged, persisting military activity in the Middle East is likely to have knock-on regional effects, highlighting the need to stay abreast of associated developments.

Advice

• Our inbound and in-country travel advice for sub-Saharan Africa remains unchanged in relation to the Middle East conflict. Consult our Travel security guides for country-specific information and advice.
• Keep abreast of developments linked to fuel supplies and energy-conservation measures. Monitor official government channels or reach out to your nearest International SOS Assistance Centre for verified updates. Do not act on unverified information. Abide by official directives.
• Check fuel availability and prices with local contacts. Expect queues at fuel stations and refill your vehicle’s tank when possible. Ensure you have adequate fuel supply for planned journeys, especially intercity travel.
• Maintain access to reliable means of communication and ensure that critical electronic devices, such as mobile phones and laptops, are always fully charged.
• Protests are liable to erupt at short notice. Liaise with local contacts for information on related developments and protests in your vicinity. Avoid all such gatherings as a precaution and leave an area at the first sign of unrest.
• In case of transport union strikes, pre-book private vehicles and reconfirm travel arrangements.
• Monitor our alerts for updates.

More detail

Impact

Central African Republic

Local media has reported long queues and overcrowding at petrol stations and overcrowding at petrol stations across the capital Bangui and its environs. This follows the seizure by the authorities of a fuel shipment to Bangui on 6 July, amid claims that it had been illegally smuggled.

Comoros

Transport unions and other labour groups observed nationwide strikes between 11-17 May following a fuel price hike on 10 May. Protests and related blockades were reported on all three islands, including in the capital Moroni. At least two people were killed and several others injured during clashes between the security forces and protesters in Paje (Anjouan Island). Late on 16 May, the authorities reversed the price increase.

Ethiopia

The government has announced a policy to redirect fuel and diesel supplies to key sectors aimed at ensuring the delivery of essential services. Fuel shortages have been reported nationwide, including in the capital Addis Ababa. Non-essential government employees in the country have also been mandated to go on annual leave as part of energy-conservation measures. Local media has reported large delays at petrol stations as well as a sharp rise in food prices due to higher transport costs.

Kenya

Since late March, shortages and long queues have been reported at petrol stations across the country, including in the capital Nairobi. Protesters have denounced fuel price hikes. At least four people were killed, 30 injured and 348 arrested during protests amid a nationwide matatu (shared minibus taxi) strike on 18-19 May. Although matatu operators suspended the strike on 21 May after negotiations with the authorities, further related demonstrations were reported on 25 May. The government agreed to reduce diesel prices as part of the agreement with transport union officials.

Despite the authorities issuing tax cuts and assuring people stocks are sufficient, fuel companies have been accused of stockpiling in anticipation of rising prices. Matatu operators announced a 50% fare increase in response to the recent fuel hike.

Madagascar

On 17 July, the government resinstated a nationwide state of energy emergency. The directive reportedly empowers the government to take exceptional measures to stabilise the national power sector. It was first declared on 7 April.

Malawi

Lengthy queues and shortages at fuel stations have been reported in Blantyre city, Mzuzu (both Southern region) and Zomba (Northern region). Reportedly, the capital Lilongwe has improved fuel supply. Nationwide blackouts have reportedly worsened in recent weeks as several power stations have reduced generation output.

Mauritius

The government banned decorative lighting, the use of air-conditioning in unoccupied commercial spaces and lighting of outdoor sports facilities when not in use, among other non-essential activities. Essential services and critical infrastructure are exempt. The measures will remain in effect until 1 November.

Mozambique

Long queues have been reported at petrol stations for several months, with numerous facilities running out of fuel. The authorities have acknowledged an ongoing fuel crisis but stated that the situation is under control and that they will implement related measures. On 26 May, the government announced that the fuel crisis was expected to ease, though the situation was dependent on geopolitical developments.

Nigeria

The Airline Operators of Nigeria has paused two planned shutdowns following government intervention. Financial relief measures introduced by the government include debt and tax relief arrangements. However, several operators have warned of delays to operations nationwide amid fuel supply issues.

South Africa

The local authorities in Johannesburg (Gauteng province) indefinitely suspended several metrobus routes across the city due to rising fuel costs.

South Sudan

In the capital Juba, the government has announced electricity rationing, with some residents reportedly experiencing power outages for up to 12 hours. Additionally, rising fuel costs have led to food price hikes.

Elsewhere in the region

Earlier in April, Senegal and Gambia announced a ban on all non-essential foreign travel for government officials amid oil price concerns. Several countries, including Botswana and Namibia have implemented temporary reductions in fuel taxes to ease fuel price pressures. Moreover, officials in Zambia declared the fuel supply situation an emergency, prompting measures such as zero-rating value-added tax and suspending import duties on petrol and diesel for a three-month period.

Outlook

The effects of the conflict on fuel markets are likely to be long-lasting across sub-Saharan Africa, though impacts will vary significantly between countries.

In the short term, sustained increases in global oil prices will be the most immediate impact, translating into higher domestic fuel costs. This will result in elevated prices for essential services and goods, such as food staples and transport fares. Governments may attempt to mitigate increases through subsidies or price controls. However, such measures may place additional pressure on already-constrained government finances and resources, especially in import-dependent economies, such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Uganda. Furthermore, even oil-producing countries, such as Angola and Nigeria, will face risks due to inadequate refining capacity.

In the medium term, fuel shortages across multiple countries are possible. This may trigger the implementation of fuel rationing or other energy-conservation measures. Associated impacts may include disruption to transportation networks and electricity generation, especially in countries reliant on fuel-powered generation.

Meanwhile, elevated living costs, combined with existing structural pressures, such as inflation, unemployment and currency instability, may increase the likelihood of demonstrations, strikes and civil unrest. Such risks will be most pronounced in countries that already face higher levels of socio-economic challenges and anti-government sentiment with a history of protests, such as Cameroon, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa and Uganda. Protests will carry significant potential for unrest, with the security forces liable to use heavy-handed measures to disperse crowds.

Additionally, public concern over potential shortages of fuel and food staples could lead to panic buying. Long queues at fuel stations are likely, along with a heightened risk of altercations or opportunistic violence amid localised tensions. The authorities may respond by increasing the security presence at fuel-distribution points and introducing controls to limit purchases.

Context

Although Africa produces about 8% of global crude oil, it imports much of its refined fuel due to a lack of refining capacity. This necessitates the large-scale import of refined petroleum products, such as petrol, diesel and aviation fuel. Furthermore, several countries in the region rely on fuel for electricity generation due to insufficient or unreliable grid infrastructure. This creates a direct link between fuel-supply disruption and power outages, highlighting the broader economic and social impact.

Assessment

The impact of the Middle East conflict on fuel supplies in sub-Saharan Africa will vary by country. General, regionwide indicators that suggest a deterioration of the situation include, but are not limited to:

Fuel-supply and price indicators

• Sustained increases in fuel prices at the national level
• Widespread closures and fuel shortages at petrol stations
• Significant transport disruption, including reduced travel and supply-chain networks
• Long queues and congestion at petrol stations
• Panic buying and reported incidents of fuel hoarding
• Infrastructure outages impacting commercial and domestic consumers

Socio-economic indicators

• Sharp increase in costs for essential goods, including staple food items and fuel
• Reports of violence at petrol stations
• Large-scale demonstrations in response to fuel-supply shortages or price increases, which may be accompanied by rioting and looting
• Industrial action, particularly among transport unions or energy-sector workers

Government and regulatory indicators

• Formal declaration of energy emergencies or nationwide conservation measures
• Implementation of electricity rationing or rolling blackouts
• Deployment of the security forces to fuel stations or critical infrastructure
• Introduction or expansion of fuel subsidies or price controls

Advice for managers

• Take stock of fuel and energy supplies. Update business-continuity and escalation plans to account for prolonged shortages and associated logistical disruption.
• Be prepared for remote working measures by identifying essential and non-essential workforce, commuter routes and business operations.
• Brief workforce on the impact of fuel shortages and price increases on daily activities such as access to motor fuel, cooking fuel or potential power disruption. Ensure workforce are able to work remotely if required.
• Account for secondary impacts on the security environment, including protests and heightened security at fuel stations. Ensure workforce have up-to-date information on potential demonstrations so they can plan in advance to avoid them.