Africa | 13 Aug 2025

Recent developments in and around Tigray state (Ethiopia) indicate there is a high risk of hostilities resuming in the region in the coming weeks. In July, two security incidents involving an armed Tigrayan opposition group based in Afar state (Ethiopia) were reported in the border region between Tigray and Afar. In recent weeks, Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have all warned that a conflict could be imminent. Clashes between rival Tigrayan armed groups are liable to be the first indicator of conflict. However, given the current level of tensions, we assess that a rapid involvement of the Ethiopian and Eritrean military forces is likely.

Islamist militant groups are deepening their operations and focal points to consolidate and expand control across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Groups affiliated with the Islamic State Greater Sahel and al-Qaida-affiliated Support Group for Islam and Muslims have taken advantage of the weakening security environment in each of these countries. While militant attacks targeting both the security forces and civilians continue to increase in HIGH- and EXTREME-risk areas across the Sahel, such activity is also spreading closer to the surrounds of MEDIUM-risk areas. We expect militant groups to continue attempting to gain control across the Sahel over the coming months.

Since 2023, Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has made obtaining sovereign sea access a national priority. These ambitions have created tensions with countries in the region, particularly Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia. This Insight Report explores the seaport options that could be pursued by Ethiopia and how they would affect regional dynamics.