Countries in this Forecast: Austria; Bulgaria; Canada; Chad; Eritrea; Ethiopia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Guatemala; Hungary; India; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Luxembourg; Norway; Papua New Guinea; Portugal; Russia; Spain; Sudan; Syria; Switzerland; United Kingdom

This Monthly Security Forecast examines how socio-economic grievances and security developments are increasing political instability in Chad and explores the potential for conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. In Canada, wildfires are expected to continue to pose a risk to business operations, while in Guatemala, political tensions are likely to rise during the first round of the general elections. In India, disruption is anticipated around planned protests in several states, while in Papua New Guinea, violence is likely to persist amid the potential reopening of the Porgera mine. In Europe, significant disruption and heightened security are expected during Pride events, while in Russia, the conflict in Ukraine is likely to impact its border areas. In Sudan, a quick resolution of a conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces remains unlikely despite mediation efforts, while in Syria, the country's return to the Arab League is expected to pave the way for its reintegration into the region.

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