Insight

We assess that armed conflict is on the cards between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Also in Africa, crackdowns will continue on anti-government protests in Togo and unrest is possible ahead of a general election in Malawi. Elsewhere, electoral tensions are similarly at the fore in Bolivia and Samoa, and also Moldova, where potential Russian influence is a key concern. Russia’s influence is waning, however, in the South Caucasus, with Armenia and Azerbaijan making progress in bilateral talks. In the Americas, the crime and security situation is worsening in Brazil and Haiti, while in Asia, Thailand continues to face insurgency in the south. In the Middle East, there is a growing risk from drone strikes in the Kurdistan Region, while further unrest is likely in the Palestinian Territories.

Disinformation campaigns are likely to attempt to influence and subvert the 25 October presidential election. Foreign actors, including Russia, will attempt to drive their own political, economic and security interests in Cote d'Ivoire and the wider region by spreading anti-Western and anti-democratic sentiment. This Insight Report provides the context for such disinformation campaigns, as well as their impact and implications before, during and after the election. It also gives recommendations on how organisations can best mitigate the risks of disinformation and its harms during the electoral period.

The Israel-Iran conflict from 13-24 June enabled Israel to strategically advance its objectives both domestically and throughout the region. Although a fragile ceasefire is currently in place, Israel has declared the operation against Iran a success, stating that its military goals had been achieved. As the conflict has severely damaged Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, energy resources and government infrastructure, the country is expected to prioritise domestic challenges in the coming months. Meanwhile, Israel is likely to capitalise on Iran’s vulnerability in the aftermath of the conflict to further advance its domestic and regional objectives.

The 2025 north-west Pacific typhoon season will be at its peak until October, with below average storm activity forecast of nearly 50 weather systems. This Insight Report examines their trajectory and the potential impact of typhoons on North and Southeast Asia. It also offers practical recommendations to manager on actions to take ahead of, during and after a storm to protect their workforce, assets and operations.

Islamist militant groups are deepening their operations and focal points to consolidate and expand control across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Groups affiliated with the Islamic State Greater Sahel and al-Qaida-affiliated Support Group for Islam and Muslims have taken advantage of the weakening security environment in each of these countries. While militant attacks targeting both the security forces and civilians continue to increase in HIGH- and EXTREME-risk areas across the Sahel, such activity is also spreading closer to the surrounds of MEDIUM-risk areas. We expect militant groups to continue attempting to gain control across the Sahel over the coming months.

Located at the convergence of four tectonic plates, Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. Recent sensational media coverage of a potential Nankai Trough 'megaquake' has focused international attention on Japan’s seismic risk. However, it overshadows other plausible scenarios, heightening public vulnerability. This Insight Report examines the potential impacts of high-casualty earthquakes, the Japanese government’s preparedness and response strategies, the risks of misinformation during crises and how organisations can strengthen resilience against major seismic events.

Mass recall campaigns led by civil society groups against legislators are underway in Taiwan (China). Recalls are mainly targeting lawmakers from the main opposition Kuomintang party. A successful recall election could tilt the power balance in the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s favour. This insight report explains the significance of the recall campaigns and explores how they affect cross-strait relations.

President Javier Milei's government has enacted Decree 340/2025, a measure that significantly restricts the right to strike in Argentina. The decree expands the list of essential services to include sectors such as education, transport and telecommunications, requiring these sectors to maintain a minimum operational capacity during strikes. Labour unions and human rights organisations have condemned the decree, arguing that it violates constitutional rights and international labour standards. The decree has intensified tensions between the government and labour unions, leading to increased protests and strikes across the country. Demonstrations have occurred nationwide, with participants from various sectors expressing their opposition to the new restrictions.

Protests and social unrest linked to political development will be a key feature of the security environment in Chile, Ecuador, Hungary, India and Uganda. In Bangladesh, commemorative events to mark the first anniversary of the July 2024 uprising planned throughout the month are expected to cause high levels of disruption. Russia will increase its attacks on the front lines and Ukrainian cities, seeking to apply pressure on Ukraine while international attention is focused on regional tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, Israel is likely to shift its military focus to operations in the Palestinian Territories. Managers should take account of security operations in Mexico, increased operations by the Islamic State’s West Africa Province in Nigeria, and ongoing conflict in Sudan. The wildfire season will pose a heightened risk to communities in Canada and the US throughout July.

The onset of the 2025 wildfire season in Europe has been characterised by lower-than-average activity thus far, likely due to bouts of heavy rainfall in high-risk areas. However, the authorities at national and supranational levels remain vigilant, prepositioning over 600 firefighters across the region, while also leveraging predictive technological tools. Despite a lower number of fires so far, wildfire risks will remain a considerable threat in Europe due to arson and high temperatures during the season. To mitigate wildfire-related risks, businesses operating in vulnerable areas should implement rigorous safety plans, including evacuation drills, and communicate health precautions to their people.

Since 2023, Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has made obtaining sovereign sea access a national priority. These ambitions have created tensions with countries in the region, particularly Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia. This Insight Report explores the seaport options that could be pursued by Ethiopia and how they would affect regional dynamics.

Rising sea levels, extreme weather events and resource scarcity are placing unprecedented pressure on communities and national infrastructures. This Insight Report examines the shifting security environment in the sub-regions of Australia-New Zealand, Melanesia and Micronesia-Polynesia, highlighting the economic, social and strategic implications of climate-driven disruption. The report provides recommendations for how organisations can factor climate and extreme weather into their business-continuity plans.

Tensions between India and Pakistan remain high following days of cross-border clashes and airstrikes in May that marked the most serious escalation between the nuclear armed neighbours in decades. This report examines the primary drivers of bilateral tensions and, using the cone of plausibility analytical technique, highlights the range of future scenarios that could unfold. It identifies a baseline, low-risk, high-risk and wildcard scenario and provides advice for organisations in both countries on how to plan and prepare for such scenarios.

For the 2025 hurricane season, weather-forecast services in Mexico and the US predict storm activity will be above average in the Atlantic, below average to average in the Central Pacific and slightly above average in the Eastern Pacific. This Insight Report examines the potential implications and risks associated with the hurricane season in North America and the Caribbean. It also provides practical recommendations for managers to follow in the event of a hurricane and details International SOS' response capabilities.

On 12 April, the US and Iran initiated the first round of nuclear talks as part of a renewed diplomatic effort to negotiate a new nuclear deal. Israel and the US have threatened military action against Iran over its nuclear programme, making the success of the talks crucial not only for Iran but also for regional stability. However, challenges persist in negotiating a new deal and risk derailing the negotiations. This report examines four scenarios, assessing the potential trajectory of the talks, the threat of military action against Iran and the potential impact on the region.

The use of naval forces has signalled an escalation in the China-Philippines maritime dynamic. Elsewhere in Asia, the 2025 south-west monsoon season is getting underway, with a forecast for above-normal rainfall. Increasing incursions indicate a change of strategy by militants in Mozambique, while tensions are high Mali following the dissolution of political parties. Armed violence is likely to increase in rural Colombia, with urban centres set to see an increase in second-order security impacts. In Germany, a growing support for far-right groups is increasing the risks of violence. Russia will likely intensify front-line military operations as the US steps back from ceasefire talks, while Ukraine will be keen to keep the US engaged. Disruption is like in various locations in the US during Pride month. The security situation in Libya is continuing to deteriorate. Elsewhere in the MENA region, continuing military operations will stymie any normalisation of ties between Israel and Syria. Across June, politically-motivated violence is possible in Chile, Mexico and Papua New Guinea during election cycles.

US president Donald Trump has influenced the shifting security environment between Canada, Mexico and the US since his January 2025 inauguration. This Insight Report examines the security, economic and diplomatic changes between the three countries and examines possible future developments in those realms, including escalatory and de-escalatory scenarios.

Five years on from the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis (Minnesota state) police and subsequent weeks of unrest that gripped US cities, the potential for wide-reaching and high-impact protests persists. Structured analysis asserts that while the conditions are not as conducive to wide-spread and sustained unrest in 2025 as they were in 2020, an event trigger today could generate unrest with lower duration, scale and impact. Several indicators that could illustrate conditions more conducive to unrest merit further monitoring. The report presents recommendations for security managers to build intelligence collection and response plans to contend with potential unrest in the US over the coming months.

Security operations against alleged militants have intensified across the West Bank since 2022, coinciding with a period of heightened tension and conflict in the region. This report examines the continuation of violent incidents and militant activity in both HIGH- and MEDIUM-risk areas within the West Bank, and highlights the persistence of militant attacks within Israel.

May will be marked by election cycles in Australia, Burundi, Poland and South Korea, producing various degrees of second-order impacts. Social unrest will be a key feature of the security environment in Argentina, Mexico and Kenya. Diplomatic issues will be at the fore in Central Asia and the Middle East, with violent retaliations possible. Managers should take account of security operations in Ecuador and Mexico, and ongoing conflict in South Sudan. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is about to get underway, and now is the time to ensure preparations are in place for workforce safety and business continuity.

An ongoing fuel shortage and accompanying economic crisis in Bolivia will see a continued deterioration of the country's security and operating environment. This Insight Report sets out the key drivers, including low production, a scarcity of US dollar reserves and government policies, and assesses the country's structural economic issues. It outlines the likely impacts of the interconnected fuel and economic crises in the run-up to August's general election, and provides recommendations to organisations who need to navigate these challenges.

Over two years into President Gustavo Petro's administration, his 'Total Peace' strategy tackling violence from armed groups in Colombia has produced mixed results. Incidents of violence have dropped overall and in some regions. However, the policy has failed to improve the security environment and led to an increase in violence in several areas, notably Cauca department and north-eastern border areas. This Insight Report looks at the evolution and spread of violence by armed groups during Petro's administration, as well as providing an outlook on the potential development of the security situation in the remainder of his term.

Far-right political parties across Europe have experienced a surge in electoral success, securing significant representation in national and European legislatures. This Insight Report analyses the security implications of this trend over the coming months, with a particular focus on this year’s elections in Germany and Romania. We believe the overall security environment is unlikely to change substantially. Nevertheless, this report will explore the potential risks posed and offer advice for managers and workforce seeking to mitigate them.

This Monthly Security Forecast analyses the security landscape in Congo (DRC) amid clashes between the rebels and the security forces while political tensions simmer in Zimbabwe and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Anti-government protests in Argentina, Panama and Peru will persist in April while Canada plans for snap elections. Mid-term elections in the Philippines will be marred by political violence while situation remains volatile in Sudan and Syria. Russia and Ukraine continue to vie for military advantage as peace talks continue. Additionally, APAC countries brace for a hotter-than-normal summer amid water and power outages.

A year and a half since Hamas’s October 2023 attack on Israel, the situation in the Middle East remains highly dynamic. The potential for further flare-ups of violence across the region persists as key drivers of instability and tensions involving Israel, the US, Iran and its regional allies remain unaddressed. Shifts in US policy and posture in the region under President Donald Trump’s administration add to the complexity of regional dynamics. This Insight Report examines the evolving situation in the Middle East and provides an outlook for the possible trajectory of regional developments over the next six-12 months.

Despite an overall decline in militant activity in Jammu and Kashmir union territory in recent years, there have been shifts in both militancy trends and seasonal patterns in cross-border infiltration. The movement of militants through, and attacks in, traditionally less-affected areas have led to an increase in counter-insurgency operations. We recommend businesses and workforce to assess these developments as militancy will be a persistent and evolving risk to operations and workforce security in the region.

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency brings significant changes in the superpower’s foreign policy in Asia and the Pacific. Organisations must proactively prepare for considerable alterations to the operating environments due to Trump’s policies towards China, tariff wars and regional geopolitical tensions. Degradations and improvements with respect to risks to exposed personnel and organisations are both plausible outcomes. This Insight Report uses structured analysis to provide predictive judgments by examining the administration’s ideological doctrines and likely foreign policy objectives as well as their interplay with regional drivers of insecurity. The report concludes with recommendations for risk managers to prepare for and respond to the shifting landscape.

Gabon is set to hold presidential elections on 12 April, marking one of the final stages of its transition after a military coup in August 2023. Although the security environment should remain stable throughout the duration of the electoral period, changes to certain factors, such as the strength of the opposition, could impact the situation on the ground. The following Insight Report lays out three possible scenarios that could unfold over the coming weeks. It also details comprehensive advice to guide organisations in preparing for such scenarios.

Since 2017, the Islamist militant al-Sunnah group has carried out attacks in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province. Despite a decrease in attacks following the deployment of foreign troops in 2021, there was an increase in attacks in 2024, including in MEDIUM-risk locations. This report provides an outlook of the security environment in Cabo Delgado over the next year. As part of this outlook, the report includes an escalation matrix that expands on the assessment of the militant threat in key locations, providing early warning indicators and instructions for timely intervention, and offers recommendations for managing militancy risks.

Expo 2025 is scheduled to be held in Osaka (Kansai region) from 13 April to 13 October. More than 150 countries are participating in the event, which the organiser expects will attract 28m visitors. Although Osaka is a LOW-security- and LOW-medical-risk destination, the surge in business travellers will have logistical and health impacts. The risk of natural hazards also remains a factor to consider when planning travel to the expo. This Insight Report outlines key considerations for attending the event and provides advice on how to navigate them during travel to Osaka.

In October 2024, International SOS’ Lead Security Analyst for East and Southern Africa deployed to Eritrea’s capital Asmara and conducted assessments of the security and logistics environment. This Insight Report is both a practical guide for business travellers to Eritrea and provides our assessment of the country’s security outlook and key issues over the coming years.

An unprecedented increase in hoax bomb threats in 2024 has raised legitimate concerns regarding their origins, intent and timing. Such threats at various places across the country, including prominent airports, have led to mass evacuations, flight diversions and panic among the public. In this Insight Report, we examine the incidence of hoax bomb threats within the context of the Indian security environment. We also present key findings from our research to identify broader trends, modus operandi and aberrations, which may present a challenge for business continuity in the future.

March will see developments across various theatres of conflict, including Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Myanmar, the Palestinian Territories, Papua New Guinea and Syria. Ethiopia's troubles are being compounded by regular seismic activity. Political and social unrest will be a key theme in the Americas, with an indigenous group having been designated a terrorist organisation in Argentina and social security reforms being pushed in Panama, while the holy month of Ramadan will influence the operating environment across large parts of Asia. Ethnic tensions have been stoked in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while radicalisation remains a primary security concern in Tajikistan. Recall campaigns are underway against legislators in Taiwan (China).

After months of fighting with the Congolese armed forces, the March 23 rebel group in late January seized control of North Kivu province’s capital Goma. The group has since begun moving its troops southwards into South Kivu province, threatening the potential capture of the province’s capital Bukavu. This Insight Report employs an analytical technique called the Cone of Plausibility to assess the future evolution of the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo (DRC) and its second-order impacts. In it, we examine several possible scenarios of varying likelihood and how they would affect the overall security environment.

Donald Trump's return to the US presidency portends significant changes in the country's foreign policy. Organisations must proactively prepare for considerable alterations to the operating environments in Latin America and the Caribbean, where degradations and improvements with respect to risks to exposed workforce are plausible outcomes. This report uses structured analysis to provide predictive judgements by examining the administration’s ideologies, likely foreign policy objectives and their interplay with regional drivers of insecurity. The report concludes with recommendations for managers to prepare for and respond to the shifting landscape.

This Monthly Forecast examines security implications around the Budget session of Parliament in India. We will also analyse how new US administration’s policies will impact the security environment in Mexico, and how flooding in Brazil will cause considerable infrastructure disruption and increase instances of opportunistic crime. Political tensions in Mozambique and Chad will continue to drive social unrest, and protests in Germany against the far-right party are likely in the run-up to snap election. Meanwhile, the annual Southeast Asia agricultural fire and wildfire season will intensify during a period of cool and dry weather. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas will ease tensions, provided it holds. In the meantime, instability and hostilities are likely to continue in Lebanon following Hizbullah’s rejection of a ceasefire extension. After three years of conflict, domestic public opinion in Ukraine is shifting, with more Ukrainians favouring a negotiated settlement to the conflict than ever before.

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency portends significant changes in the country’s foreign policy. Organisations should proactively prepare for considerable changes in operational and risk environments across the Middle East and North Africa. This Insight Report uses structured analysis to provide predictive judgments. It examines the Trump administration’s ideological doctrines and likely foreign policy objectives, as well as their interplay with regional drivers of insecurity. In conclusion, it provides recommendations that will help risk managers to prepare for and respond to the shifting regional landscape.

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings significant changes in the superpower's foreign policy. Organisations must proactively prepare for considerable alterations to operating environments in Europe due to Trump's policies towards NATO, Russia and Ukraine. This Insight Report uses structured analysis to provide predictive judgments by examining the administration's ideological doctrines and likely foreign policy objectives, and their interplay with regional drivers of insecurity. The report concludes with recommendations for risk managers to prepare for and respond to the shifting landscape.

The growing volume and virality of misinformation and disinformation will be amplified by the rise of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) and use of social media networks as a key source of information in the coming years. A wide range of actors including political entities, governments and issue-driven groups will capitalise on this boom. Disinformation will exacerbate existing security challenges such as xenophobia, ethnic and religious sectarianism, partisan divides, geopolitical tensions and social discontent. It will also be a catalyst for confusion about public health advice, especially during emergencies. This Insight Report carefully examines the challenges around this important topic and provides recommendations for how managers can mitigate the associated risks.

The collapse of the government of former president Bashar al-Assad (in office 2000-24) in Syria in December 2024 represents one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in recent years, both within Syria and across the Middle East. This Insight Report analyses the intentions, goals and positions of various actors in Syria, and the broader regional impacts. We anticipate that the security environment in Syria will remain volatile as the transitional Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led government seeks to consolidate power while balancing its interests with those of other domestic and foreign actors. Developments in Syria will continue to have a ripple effect throughout the region, reshaping regional dynamics.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we discuss the ongoing tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. In the Americas, we examine the threat environment around the transition of power in the US. We also look at the upcoming election in Ecuador and the surging presence of migrants in Mexico. The election will proceed in Vanuatu, despite the recent earthquake, and disruption will continue in India's capital New Delhi. Although the outcome of the Belarussian election is a foregone conclusion clients still need to plan appropriately, while interethnic tensions are increasing in Kosovo. The withdrawal of three African countries from ECOWAS could complicate the operating environment, while regional tensions will have an impact on peacekeeping efforts in Somalia.

The arrest of Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada, an alleged founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, triggered retaliatory violence between the drug-trafficking network's leading factions in Sinaloa state: those loyal to the Zambada family, known as the 'Mayiza', and associates of former kingpin Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman's sons, known as the 'Chapiza'. In this Insight Report we use a structured analytical technique called the Cone of Plausibility to assess scenarios for how the security environment could evolve in Sinaloa and the implications for operations in the country more broadly. We offer recommendations to managers on how to prepare for, and respond to, developments.

Our 2025 Risk Outlook Insight Report assesses the global security landscape and highlights the security challenges we expect to define the year ahead. Our assessment was developed by International SOS global security analysts, aviation and maritime security teams all around the world, underpinned by our decades of experience in intelligence, forecasting and crisis risk management. The report also leverages expertise from our security advisors and partners. The rapid pace of change in the scale and intensity of security challenges poses risks for personnel, assets and operational security. Maintaining resilience in 2025 will require: reliable, timely information; robust security planning; proactive crisis management; and advanced assessment and communication technology.

This Monthly Forecast examines security implications around protracted unrest in India’s Manipur state. We will also analyse the risks posed by terrorism in Pakistan and Turkey, as well as the restructuring of the criminal landscape in Mexico. Political tensions in Argentina and Mozambique will continue to drive social unrest, and protests and counter-demonstrations in Romania are possible around the election period. Meanwhile, Russia will launch large-scale airstrikes across Ukraine and escalate its hybrid operations elsewhere in Europe. In Nigeria, multiple violent actors are exacerbating insecurity in the already-volatile North West region, while the security environment in Haiti continues to deteriorate. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising following North Korea's intensified military posturing and persistent non-kinetic aggression against South Korea.

Terrorism and militancy in South Asia are based on a variety of factors, including Islamist extremism, ethnic or communal tensions, separatist insurgency, and left-wing extremism. This Insight Reports aims to provide a strategic overview of the region, including key militant groups, areas of operation, their modus operandi, and counterterrorism capabilities. The report also shares actionable advice for organisations undertaking operations and travel in locations affected by terrorism/militancy.

Although the levels of violence in New Caledonia (France) have significantly decreased since the outbreak of unrest in May, the stability of the security environment cannot be taken for granted. This insight report, informed by an in-country assessment conducted by our security team in August, aims to illustrate the remaining sources of volatility which may contribute to a deterioration in the security environment.

A military offensive named Operation 1027 has changed Myanmar's conflict landscape. A multipolar conflict landscape is emerging in Myanmar, with highly contested border areas. This Insight Report analyses the spillover effects of the conflict in Myanmar on its neighbours, such as the increase in refugees and the escalation of violence near the border. This report also provides actionable advice for organisations with exposure and operations near Myanmar's border regions.

Following former prime minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation on 5 August, concerns have risen regarding the trajectory of unrest amid the vacuum in the country’s political environment. Amid this uncertainty, International SOS conducted a comprehensive analysis of political unrest and clashes in Bangladesh since 2018. This Insight Report provides an outlook on region-specific trends and potential triggers influencing the scale of political violence that may affect in-country business operations over the coming months.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the potential for unrest linked to elections in the Africa region, India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the US. We will assess trends of terror attacks in Europe and Israel amid conflicts in the Middle East, and how direct Israel-Iran confrontations will continue to destabilise the security environment in the region. Azerbaijan will host COP29, which will bring heightened international scrutiny of the government’s crackdown on independent media, civil society and opposition figures. Guinea and Mexico will continue to experience heightened political tensions, while civil unrest is expected to persist in Peru.

Militancy in Southeast Asia is attributed to a range of factors, including Islamist extremism, separatist insurgency and left-wing extremism. This Insight Report provides a regional overview of the key militant groups, their modus operandi and affected areas. The report also shares actionable advice for organisations undertaking operations and travel in locations affected by militancy.

The final portion of the US presidential election cycle holds considerable opportunity for escalation. We separate the next few months into three distinct stages: the pre-election period; election day and immediately afterwards; and the longer-term, post-election period. The threats, escalatory triggers and recommended actions over these stages vary substantially. This assessment employs the Quadrant Crunching analytical technique to evaluate the interplay of two key variables, the margin of victory and the health of the information environment, that influence the potential for escalation on and around election day. The report encourages risk managers to monitor the most-likely drivers of escalation and develop proactive communication plans to best navigate the challenges associated with the end of the election cycle.

This Monthly Forecast examines security implications around elections at various levels in Brazil, Georgia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tunisia and the US. There is potential for political violence around the swearing-in ceremony of Mexico’s president-elect and other local government officials. We also highlight risks around the festival season in India and disruption associated with the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa. There will be an increase in rallies across urban centres in Europe as the anniversary of the Israel-Hamas conflict approaches, while border hostilities between Israel and Hizbullah will likely evolve into a full-scale conflict.

Denouncing economic hardship and a lack of conciliatory gestures from the government, civil society groups are calling for renewed anti-government protests to be held across the country from 1 October. Northern states, which continue to bear the brunt of current socio-economic challenges and insecurity, are likely to see higher levels of unrest, including acts of vandalism and looting. This Insight Report provides an outlook for protests in October and beyond amid an expected increase in social unrest over the coming months.

This Insight Report provides an overview of the current terrorism threat environment in Pakistan, amid a countrywide escalation in militant attacks and extremist activity in general. The report looks at the threat landscape in HIGH- and EXTREME-risk areas, examines the key threat actors and provides an outlook for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the potential for unrest linked to a new economic policy in Ethiopia. Countries in Africa, the Americas and Middle East and North Africa will see impacts of an mpox outbreak, the Atlantic hurricane season and rising Iran-Israel tensions, respectively. Violent crime and kidnap-for-ransom continue to be prime risks in Mexico’s Chiapas state and Papua New Guinea. Austria elections will likely see the rise of a far-right party while India witnesses a rise in nationalist sentiments in the aftermath of events in Bangladesh and Myanmar. Mining-related protests will persist in Peru while Libya battles an internal political crisis. Additionally, we assess if the recent Ukrainian cross-border incursion turned out be less impactful than what Ukrainian leaders expected.

Nearly one-third of the global population lives in an area where water is seasonally scarce. While climate change and rapid urbanisation are exacerbating water scarcity, myriad other factors contribute to its cause. This Insight Report goes beyond the immediate disruption associated with a lack of water, and explores how water scarcity can worsen health and security risks in cities where pressure on essential services already exists, and the authorities lack the capacity to respond rapidly. Organisations operating in locations prone to water shortages should fully understand to impacts and account for them in their risk management and business contingency planning.

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Over the coming years, the effects of climate change will become a defining feature of the regions’ security environment. This Insight Report provides a regional overview of the short and long-term security implications of changing rain and temperature patterns in the region. The report also provides advice for how organisations with operations and travel in sub-Saharan Africa can build their resilience to manage the security risks associated with climate change.

Sri Lanka's presidential election is scheduled to take place on 21 September. The four-way race will be between incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is contesting as an independent candidate, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power alliance, Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya alliance, and Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party. This Insight Report explores the potential impact of the election on the country's security environment and provides a scenario-based outlook for the short- to long-term following the release of the results.

The advancing campaign period ahead of the 5 November general elections is heightening the threat environment in the US. Risks of targeted acts of political violence, social unrest and other impacts are amplified by several key drivers including global conflicts, domestic wedge issues and the information environment. This analysis details various trajectories towards which the threat environment may evolve in the coming months. It also provides recommendations for risk managers to safeguard workforce, assets and business operations over the uncertain period spanning the closure of the Democratic National Convention on 22 August and the November vote.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the potential for unrest linked to anti-government protests in Malawi, Nigeria and Panama, as well as election-related unrest in India and the US. In Colombia, violence linked to armed groups is likely to continue in rural HIGH-risk areas. Tonga will host the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting amid heightened regional tensions. In the Middle East, conflicts involving Israel continue to pose significant risks. Similarly, ongoing conflicts in Myanmar and Sudan will continue to affect the security situation of those countries. In Europe, the withdrawal of Russia's troops from Armenia's border will mark a new phase in relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, several security incidents across the region have been attributed to Russian ‘hybrid warfare’ amid the conflict in Ukraine.

A key theme globally in July will be for elections and politics to variously drive disruption, tension and social unrest, particularly in Armenia, Egypt, India, New Caledonia (France), Rwanda and Venezuela. The risks associated with, and response to, in-country violence will be notable features of the security environment in Honduras and Mozambique. Wildfire season may have a significant impact on the operating environment in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia in North Africa, and Canada and the US in the Americas. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising following the suspension of the bilateral military agreement and tit-for-tat actions by North and South Korea. There is also an escalating situation between the Houthis and the internationally recognised government in Yemen. With the Paris Olympics and Paralympics approaching, risks associated with terrorism, social unrest and crime are front of mind in France.

Expert projections for the Atlantic Hurricane season forecast record levels of activity in 2024, including as many as 25 named storms, 13 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes (category three or higher on a five-tier scale). This International SOS report provides recommendations for proactive measures to ensure robust security and evacuation planning in order to safeguard people and operations. The report also outlines International SOS’ operational planning and strong network capabilities and partnerships across the region, which jointly ensure readiness to provide effective and timely assistance to clients preparing for, responding to and recovering from major storms.

As temperatures continue to rise amid the climate crisis, wildfires across the continent have increased in frequency, severity and longevity. In 2023, the largest fire ever recorded occurred in Greece. Additionally, wildfires resulted in airport closures and evacuations in other locations. The following Insight Report examines the potential impacts wildfire season can have to your workforce and assets, as well as the measures managers can take to adequately prepare their workforce.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the heightened security risks linked to Africa Pride events. In Germany, the 2024 European Football Championship will cause disruption and increase security risks. Anti-Syrian sentiment is driving unrest in Lebanon and a political stalemate coupled with economic grievances will continue to drive anti-government sentiment in Kurdistan Region. In Haiti, the security environment will be heavily impacted by the Multinational Security Support Mission deployment. Meanwhile, Ukraine will continue to reinforce defensive positions to prevent Russian breakthrough. We will examine how the security environment in Mauritania, Mexico and Mongolia will be impacted by elections. We will also analyse the impact of La Nina weather phenomenon in several Asia-Pacific countries. In Brazil, unprecedented flooding and criminality will continue to affect Rio Grande do Sul.

Since the July 2023 coup that ousted the government led by Mohamed Bazoum and replaced it with the leadership of former presidential guard commander General Abdourahmane Tchiani and National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country (CNSP) junta, Niger’s security environment has changed, requiring a different approach to security. Following an earlier decision by the Economic Community of West African States to lift sanctions against Niger, the country reopened its borders with Nigeria in March, ending the period of post-coup isolation. Despite this apparent opening up, serious risks remain. This insight report explores the risks present in Niger in this new political era for the country, and how these risks can be mitigated.

The LGBTQ+ community continues to face discrimination across the globe. This comes in many forms, ranging from the denial of services to the risk of physical harm. Travellers, both members of the community and those travelling with them, face continued exposure to these risks. This Insight Report provides travellers and managers with practical, actionable and measured recommendations. It covers the cycle of business travel, from preparation to post-travel. The report also contains real-life examples gathered by International SOS teams to highlight the variety of challenges faced.

This Insight Report provides an overview of the security implications of Mexico’s upcoming general election. On 2 June, voters are due to elect the President of the Republic for the 2024-2030 period. The ruling Morena party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum is widely expected to win. The opposition is likely to call for peaceful demonstrations in the election’s aftermath. Ballots will also be cast for over 19,000 positions at the federal, state and local levels of government. The electoral cycle has been marred by political violence targeting candidates, government officials and their associates. Regions of the country prone to frequent protests may also experience instances of election-related unrest. Although localised disruption is possible, election day should transpire peacefully in most polling stations. Mexico’s security environment is expected to remain broadly stable ahead of and following the election.

Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as a hub for domestic and transnational militant activity in recent years. This Insight Report provides a regional overview of the key militant groups, their modus operandi, and an outlook for what organisations operating in the region can expect over the coming year. The report also shares advice for organisations with operations and travel in the locations affected by militancy.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the potential for election-related unrest in Chad and South Africa. Guerrilla activity continues to affect south-western Colombia, while the security crisis in Haiti will persist and election-related unrest is possible in Panama. Meanwhile, flashpoint areas of India may experience disturbances around the remaining parliamentary polls, with a similar outlook accompanying the ongoing political stalemate in New Caledonia (France). In the wider APAC region, summer water scarcity will be a source of disruption. Demonstrations could occur during the EU parliamentary election cycle, with further heavy fighting probable in Ukraine. In the Middle East, simmering conflicts involving Israel continue to pose significant risks.

Tensions between Venezuela and neighbouring Guyana have ebbed and flowed since the Venezuelan government passed a referendum in December 2023, proposing the annexation of the disputed, Guyana-administered Essequibo region. While tensions have subsequently cooled, statements by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, as well as his government’s history of authoritarianism, have kept concerns over potential Venezuelan intervention salient. This report uses an analysis of competing hypotheses framework to assess the available evidence and assumptions regarding a potential Venezuelan military intervention in the region, as well as to provide insights and advice for organisations with interests in both countries.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the aftermath of Indonesia’s elections, as well as the rise in political activity ahead of elections in the Solomon Islands and the Maldives. The cross-border landscape between Israel and Lebanon will remain tense, and hostilities will persist in Sudan ahead of the conflict’s first anniversary. The Americas will see crime trends affecting the security and transport environments, while farmers continue to launch nationwide demonstrations across Europe. We also examine the risks posed by increasing militant attacks in Mozambique and growing anti-government sentiment in Guinea, Mali and Mauritania. Meanwhile, a new bill in Kyrgyzstan presents challenges for NGOs and independent media in the country.

With less than six months to go until the beginning of the Paris 2024 Summer Olympic Games, organisations based in France and those planning to attend the Games will be well under way with their preparations for the sporting events. This insight report details the various threats business travellers and in-country workforce may face. Looking at the available data, the report breaks down the crime rates in different areas of the capital Paris, as well as compares statistics on terrorism and protests. Encapsulated within the report is actionable advice that workforce and managers can follow in order to mitigate risks in the host country.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the heightened security risks related to criminal groups, including the M23 rebel group in Congo (DRC) and armed groups in Colombia. Anti-government protests will continue to be driven by economic challenges in Kenya and by political instability linked to acting president Ariel Henry in Haiti. We analyse the rise in political activity ahead of the general elections in Mexico and India, the presidential election in Russia and the local elections in Turkey. We also assess the impact of the Taliban's increased diplomatic and economic relations in Afghanistan. The Islamic holy month of Ramadan will have security implications in several Asia-Pacific countries, where religious event is well observed, and falls amid a contentious period in Palestinian-Israeli relations. Security measures will be heightened across countries in Europe during events marking International Women's Day.

Normal business travel to Israel and the West Bank (Palestinian Territories) has been disrupted since 7 October 2023, when the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas’ armed wing mounted a major attack on southern Israel. The risks posed to workforce in southern Israel have subsequently decreased, with rocket fire targeting major Israeli cities having almost entirely stopped. Nevertheless, International SOS continues to advise against non-essential travel to Israel. This report examines how travel might be possible and under what circumstances business travel can resume.

Many of Africa’s 2024 elections will have an impact on the national security situation of the respective host country. This insight report provides an overview of the security implications for each of the continent’s presidential, parliamentary and general elections due to take place this year. Provided with each is an overview of our assessment of the likely security impact in that country and a summary of our advice for the level of preparedness needed to manage and mitigate the associated risks.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the rising tensions in the Middle East, with pro-Iranian armed groups' attacks on US bases expected to continue. The Yemen-based Houthi group is also likely to persist with its attacks on ships in the Red Sea. We will analyse the impact of demonstrations by farmers and train drivers in Germany and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on its second anniversary. Farmers will launch nationwide demonstrations in India, while tensions will remain high in Papua New Guinea. Political issues will continue to affect security and operating environments in Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico and the US, and the risk of unrest will persist in Ethiopia, Senegal and Somalia.

This Risk Outlook report takes a deeper look at the key trends impacting the security environment in South Asia across 2024. These include the elections in India, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, where there will be increased political activity and a heightened risk of unrest. Meanwhile, terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and militancy in India and Bangladesh will remain persistent threats to the security environment. The impacts of climate change, irregular weather patterns and natural hazards will also drive social unrest over the impact and the authorities’ response.

Delayed parliamentary elections will take place on 8 February. The elections are set to be contentious, with former prime minister Imran Khan (in office 2018-22) in jail and banned from participating. There is precedent of political violence around polls and a backdrop of rising terror attacks. We expect this campaign period to be marred by incidents of political violence, disruptive political rallies and terror attacks on related gatherings. This report provides key insights and advice for organisations with operations and workforce in Pakistan.

This Risk Outlook examines the key security concerns in the Asia-Pacific. These concerns include extreme weather phenomena, upcoming elections, political tensions and protests by trade unions. It also looks at the tensions in the South China Sea, the Korean peninsula and the deteriorating security environment in Myanmar. This report considers regional and global developments and how they will influence various risk vectors, such as terrorism and insurgency, in Asia. This report also shares key issues to monitor, including communal tensions, social unrest and economy-related unrest.

This Risk Outlook examines the key security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa during 2024. Hostilities that began in 2023 will continue to affect regional stability, as the likelihood of their peaceful resolution remains low. Protracted conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas will continue to reverberate throughout the region and drive heightened tensions between Israel, the US and Iran. Associated instability will continue to influence regional dynamics even after fighting subsides. This Risk Outlook also examines further key issues to monitor in 2024, including economic challenges and political instability affecting several countries.

The general election on 14 February will appoint the president and vice-president, as well as representatives to national, provincial and district parliaments. Concerns over economic growth, corruption, unemployment and the job creation law are major campaign issues. Leading presidential contender Prabowo Subianto, who is contesting for a third time, is running mates with the incumbent president's son. Widespread unrest is unlikely during and after the elections, with the security environment expected to remain stable. Localised travel disruption around election related events will be the primary concern for business travellers.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the trajectory of the Israel-Hamas conflict and its implications for Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon. In Cote d'Ivoire, the Africa Cup of Nations will complicate the security and operating environment. Meanwhile, Somalia’s accession to the East African Community may increase security challenges for other member states. We will also analyse how political developments in Argentina, Guatemala and the US will impact the security environment there. Security will be heightened in India during sensitive dates and the security environment in Myanmar is deteriorating and remains fluid. We will also examine the risks posed by organised crime across Europe. In Kazakhstan, protests will continue as key drivers of unrest remain unaddressed. The security situation in Sudan will remain volatile due to the involvement of other armed actors.

This Insight Report takes a deeper look into the key trends impacting the security environment of Mexico and Central America across 2024. It examines the persistent risks posed by violent organised crime in Mexico despite signs of improvement. It also addresses the heavy-handed measures implemented by some Central American governments, apparently following the lead of El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele. The implications of the upcoming general elections in El Salvador, Mexico and Panama, as well as the risks of fallout from Guatemala’s controversial 2023 general election, will also be analysed.

This Insight Report examines key security concerns in South America for 2024. These include crime dynamics in Colombia, where the government is attempting to negotiate and end conflicts with guerrilla and paramilitary groups, and Ecuador, where the new government seeks to reduce the high levels of violent crime in western provinces. It will also examine the likely security impacts of the El Nino weather pattern, particularly those linked to incidents of drought and flooding. The report will finally address the potential for disruption and unrest associated with political and economic instability in several countries, including Argentina and Peru.

Bangladesh will hold the next general election on 7 January 2024. The electoral period has historically been characterised by an increase in political unrest and violence, mostly between the ruling Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party. This Insight Report assesses the travel and security risks during and after the election period, based on the most likely scenario. It also identifies potential flashpoints in major urban centres, including the capital Dhaka,and provides advice on how to prepare and mitigate risks.

Exacerbated by the effects of climate change, North America and the Caribbean will continue to be impacted by natural disasters, including severe weather, through 2024. These incidents will result in significant secondary health and security concerns. Additionally, the Caribbean, particularly Haiti, faces insecurity stemming from gang-related violent crime. Heightened tensions linked the US 2024 presidential election and ongoing legal actions against former president Donald Trump (in office 2017-21) will result in increased demonstrations and a risk of political violence.

This Risk Outlook examines the key security concerns in Europe, Russia, and Central Asia for the upcoming year. These include the fallout of events in the Middle East and conflicts in the South Caucus and Ukraine. This report considers that regional and global affairs could impact the future of the conflict in Ukraine. Also included is a look at the Paris Summer Olympics and the possible threats France will face. The report shares further key issues to monitor, including natural hazards, climate activism, and instability in the Balkans.

In July 2023, International SOS published an Insight Report on the potential for conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. This Insight Report builds on that earlier report and reassesses the potential for, and outcome of, direct conflict between the countries. This comes as tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to rise, particularly in relation to the Red Sea. The report also provides escalatory triggers to monitor and advice for managers amid these developments.

This Risk Outlook examines the key security concerns in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024. These include political instability surrounding upcoming elections and the risks of further coups. Also included are the risks surrounding growing opposition to the presence of foreign militaries, as well as Africa's position amid geopolitical shifts. The report shares further key issues to monitor in the coming year, such as climate change impacts and South Africa's electricity crisis.

The tropical cyclone season in Australia and the South Pacific typically occurs between November and April. This season, eight to 14 cyclones are expected to impact the South Pacific region. Australia is expected to experience 11 cyclones, which is lower than the average number of cyclones per season. These weather systems may cause travel disruption, significant infrastructural damage, increased security concerns and casualties. This report examines these issues and offers recommendations on appropriate steps to take ahead of, during and after a cyclone.

Despite the conflict in the south and east of Ukraine, life in the capital Kyiv and the western city of Lviv (Lviv province) can often feel like ‘business as usual.’ However, the threat of fatal Russian aerial strikes persists. Conditions will become more challenging during the winter months, as Russia increases its drone and missile campaign targeting critical national infrastructure. This Insight Reports provides a situation update on conditions in both cities and actionable advice for those remaining in country or conducting essential travel.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the political tensions and possible unrest ahead of electoral periods in Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe. In Panama, protests related to a controversial mining contract will continue, while the risk of violent crime will persist in the US capital Washington (DC). India and Indonesia will also see considerable political activity, as a parliament session will begin in the former and general election is upcoming in the latter. Australia is about to enter the bushfire season, with southern areas of the country more at risk. Power outages will disrupt operations in Central Asia, and the risk of low-level terror attacks in European countries remains. Incumbent Egyptian president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is widely expected to win the upcoming presidential election, and the Israel-Hamas conflict will continue, though rocket fire from Gaza will decline throughout the month.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has significantly heightened regional tensions. The persisting exchanges of hostilities between Israel and the Lebanon-based Shia Muslim movement Hizbullah along the Israel-Lebanon border have raised credible concerns of a renewed full-scale Israel-Hizbullah conflict. In this report, we consider the risk of an Israel-Hizbullah conflict, its potential impact on regional stability, and the role of state and non-state actors – including the US and Iran – to outline four scenarios.

Two members of our Asia Security Centre team travelled to the Maldives in September. They assessed the on-the-ground security and political risk environments, particularly during significant events such as the recent presidential election. This report summarises their findings and also provides an insight into the primary risks that business travellers may face, especially in the capital Male.

A general election will be held on 20 December. Although campaigning has yet to begin, the pre-election period has already been marked by targeted political violence and restrictions on opposition gatherings. Insecurity in the east also threatens to disrupt voting. This Insight Report assesses that moderate-to-high levels of localised unrest and violence are probable during the election period. It also provides preparatory risk mitigation advice for those with operations in the country.

In this Monthly Security Forecast we examine the implications of the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. We will also examine how elections impact the security environment in Argentina, Bangladesh, Guatemala and Madagascar. The conflict will continue in Ukraine amid worsening weather conditions. Security measures will be enhanced in Solomon Islands during the Pacific Games. Meanwhile, the south-west Indian Ocean cyclone season is due to start in east and southern Africa.

In this Monthly Security Forecast we examine the implications of upcoming elections in Argentina, India, Iraq, Liberia, Mozambique and Poland. We also look at how tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran will continue to affect the security environment of both countries. In Haiti, gang-related violence continues to pose the most significant threat to operations. Meanwhile, Turkey’s security operations in Kurdistan Region will drive cross-border tensions. We anticipate violence to persist in Pakistan as the terrorism threat continues to worsen.

The 2023 International Monetary Fund conference will take place in Marrakech between 9-15 October. The event follows the strongest earthquake in the country's recorded history, in which at least 2,900 people were killed. This two-pager details the current security situation in the city in light of the earthquake, including information on logistics, accommodation and impacted areas.

This Insight Report looks at the risks posed to women travelling in sub-Saharan Africa given the unique risks and challenges women face. This report provides detailed and actionable advice that women should take before and during travel to mitigate their exposure to profile-specific risks. It also includes recommendations for managers to help ensure the safety of their female workforce. Understanding how women’s profiles can impact their risk exposure can help business travellers better ensure their safety and organisations better execute their duty of care.

Political tensions and conflict will persist in Africa in September, while the Americas will see crime trends impacting the security environment. Political tensions will also be at the fore in the Asia Pacific region, along with the tribal conflict in Papua New Guinea and the bushfire season in Australia. The cross-border landscape between Israel and Lebanon will remain tense, and protests are likely in Turkey. The conflict will continue in Ukraine, and the Rugby World Cup will present logistical challenges in France.

Having long been considered as two of the most stable countries in West Africa, Benin and Togo are now increasingly exposed to the threat of militancy in their northern border regions. Due to growing popular frustration with the government's tight grip on power and restrictions on opposition activity, Togo also faces increased risks from social unrest during the next elections. Senior Security Specialist Diego Luycx recently visited both countries and shares his observations and analysis.

The 2023-24 bushfire season is expected to be the most significant since the 2019-20 ‘Black Summer’ fires. The most significant threat to operations will occur between September and February. This Insight Report examines the risks associated with bushfires and describes mitigating measures for managers to prepare workforce.

The Caribbean, Central America and eastern coastal areas of the US, as well as Mexico’s Pacific coast, to a lesser extent, are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms every year. Hurricane season in the Atlantic and the Pacific typically runs from June to November, with the highest levels of activity being registered between August and September.This Insight Report discusses the risks posed by severe weather, highlighting that impacts are not limited to coastal areas, as storms increasingly travel further inland. Managers should review their exposure levels and ensure comprehensive procedures for business continuity are in place as the peak hurricane season starts.

In this Monthly Security Forecast we examine the implications and risks of upcoming elections in Ecuador, Gabon, Guatemala, Thailand and Zimbabwe. We also look at the disruptive effects of weather systems in both the Americas and in the South Pacific, where the peaks of the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons and the El Nino climate pattern are respectively ongoing. In Europe, disruption is possible due to a series of air travel strikes. During August, Ukraine's counter-offensive is forecast to make limited gains. Additionally, the risk of anti-migrant violence in Tunisia will remain elevated this month.

Significant wildfires broke out across Greece in July, including on the island of Rhodes. The fires were exacerbated by strong winds and unusually high temperatures. International SOS Security Manager, Assistance, Taylor El Hage explains how, as the wildfires spread on Rhodes, we worked closely with our security partners in Greece to help clients get to safety. (An eight-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

In recent months, indications of bilateral tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have grown. These tensions have the potential to spark direct or indirect fighting between the two countries. This Insight Report explores three scenarios for how these developments could manifest over the coming year and provides escalation triggers to monitor for each scenario, as well as advice for managers.

We recently conducted a country assessment trip to Central African Republic ahead of a constitutional referendum, which is taking place on 30th July. International SOS' Security Manager, Assistance, Benedikt Zimmermann travelled to the capital Bangui and offers this update about the city's security environment, including insight about its nightly curfew as well as current economic and political tensions. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Three months after an armed conflict between the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group broke out, the situation in Sudan remains volatile. Most of the fighting is concentrated in Khartoum state, and Kordofan and Darfur regions of the country. International SOS’ lead security analyst Polina Vynogradova gives us her assessment of what is happening on the ground and offers advice for clients who remain in Sudan. (An nine-minute listen, transcript available). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS recently completed a country assessment trip to Kosovo. Security Manager Michael Tutte discusses some of the security risks and comments on recent violent clashes that have erupted in northern regions of Kosovo, and reflects on what impact it could have for business travellers planning a trip to the country. (An 11-minute listen, transcript available). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The incidence of gender-based violence remains very high in Papua New Guinea. International SOS’ Senior Security Specialist Flavie Denolle explains the risks and offers advice to women travelling to or based in the country to help keep them safe. (A nine-minute listen, transcript available).Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

India has one of the largest transport networks in the world, which comes with its own set of challenges. The country ranks among the highest globally in terms of rates of rail accidents. One such accident on 2 June in Balasore district (Odisha state) has raised concerns regarding the overland-travel risks in the country. While India has taken significant steps to improve its transport infrastructure, related challenges persist.This Insight Report explores the state of the country's road and rail infrastructure, assesses the challenges involved in overland travel and provides appropriate mitigation measures to ensure safe journeys.

Following seizures of power between 2020 and 2022, the governments of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Guinea have announced political transitions. The volatile security environments in these countries will pose security challenges to organisations operating there during these periods. This Insight Report presents advice for managers seeking to mitigate these risks. It also provides information on the background to the recent coups and an electoral timetable permitting managers to plan around the transitions.

A team from International SOS recently visited Indonesia to carry out a country risk assessment. Security Specialist Aravindhan V went to four cities, including the capital Jakarta, which has seen recent protests over the omnibus law affecting labour and health legislation. He offers this assessment about the scale of the protests and what they will mean for the country in the run up to elections in February 2024. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Further protests can be expected across France over the coming hours and days following the shooting of a 17-year-old male by a police officer on 27 June in Nanterre (Ile-de-France region). Rioting continued across the country for a third consecutive night on 29-30 June. Several major cities have been affected by related unrest, which has involved clashes with the police as well as attacks on businesses and public buildings. International SOS's Senior Security Specialist based in the capital Paris, Marc-Antoine Le Goff, offers this assessment of what has been happening and what to expect. (A seven-minute listen).Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the socio-economic landscape in Nigeria following presidential elections and the implications of the withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission troops in Somalia. In the Mexican state of Baja California, violence is on the rise amid a restructuring of the criminal landscape, while in the US, gun violence is a latent threat during the summer months. Countries in South Asia will be affected by cyclone season. New Caledonia faces political tensions and social unrest following talks with France’s interior minister. In the Armenian-Azerbaijani border region, ceasefire violations continue despite diplomatic talks. Operational disruption is likely as Lithuania hosts the 2023 NATO Summit. In Egypt, socio-economic grievances could trigger sporadic strikes, though unrest is unlikely. Regional maritime tensions persist as Iran rekindles ties with the Arab states and Syria, to establish a regional naval alliance that the US opposes.

International SOS recently conducted a trip to Israel and the West Bank to assess the in-country security situation. Our Security Director for Assistance, Erika Weisbrod and Security Specialist Melissa Sanguinetti have compiled tips to help workforce who may be planning their first business trip to Israel, to help them prepare for their journey and outline what they should expect while they are there. (A 14-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The outbreak of hostilities between Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan on 15 April risked the security of those countries it shares borders with. It has also triggered a refugee influx into neighbouring countries, including Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan, straining the states’ resources. While foreign states will continue mediation efforts and are likely to refrain from military intervention, they are liable to offer covert support to rival sides. As hostilities prevail, the conflict in Sudan will continue to impact the stability of neighbouring states.

We recently travelled to Peru to carry out an in-country assessment of the security situation there following recent protests. International SOS’s lead security analyst for South America, David Quispe, also discusses rising levels of crime in some parts of the country including the capital Lima. We also get advice from our medical director for the Americas, Dr Albert Castano, as the country copes with record cases of dengue fever. (A 15-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

We recently undertook a review of the security environment in Sudan due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that started on 15 April. International SOS's Lead Security Analyst Polina Vynogradova explains why we have decided to raise the security risk rating from HIGH to EXTREME for Gazira,Khartoum, North, South Kordofan, West and White Nile states. The rest of the country that has been less affected by the hostilities remains rated as HIGH risk. (A nine-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

We recently conducted an assessment of the route between Banjul in Gambia to Bissau in Guinea-Bissau. Senior Security Specialist Zoe Knight carried out the assessment as part of our continuous work to ensure we can confidently advise our clients on how best to conduct overland travel. The aim of our journey was to go from a low- to medium-risk location, where such travel is more common, yet the typical risks and security considerations are less well known. (A seven-minute watch, transcript available). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Tropical storm Bret is expected to bring heavy rain and winds of around 70 mph across the eastern Caribbean islands as the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season gets under way. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted there will be up to 17 named storms and nine hurricanes this season. Josh Dozor, International SOS's General Manager, Assistance Operations for the Americas, and Director of Security Intelligence, Mike Rogers offer advice to prepare you and your workforce and explain what assistance International SOS is able to provide. (A 14-minute listen, transcript available). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Following a security incident in the UK city of Nottingham we wanted to offer insight into how International SOS's security experts monitor developing incidents and explain how we check and verify information before sending it on to clients. Security Specialist Charly Anderson and Security Director Holly McGurk also explain what's involved in some of our decision-making processes. (A nine-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS recently conducted a trip to Moldova to assess the in-country security situation in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, allegations of a Russian-backed coup and anti-government protests. Lead Security Analyst for Europe Tarun Nijjer has recorded this update. (A five-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

People in North America are being warned to anticipate further travel disruption in the coming days due to smoke from ongoing wildfires in Canada. The incident is also leading to poor air quality and people are being advised to wear N95 face masks when outside. MedAire’s Global Security Manager, Aviation & Maritime, Jeremy Knochel and International SOS’s Regional Medical Director Dr Mark Fischer offer this assessment of the situation and advice to stay safe. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The capital Kyiv continues to be frequently targeted by Russian drone and missile strikes, and a dam in a Russian-controlled area in southern Ukraine was recently destroyed. Here, we consider what is next for the conflict in Ukraine. International SOS's Senior Security Specialist Baani Gambhir has been assessing the latest updates and offers advice amid rumours that a new Ukrainian counteroffensive is due to get underway. (A 13-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on 24 June. Incumbent president Julius Maada Bio and the ruling Sierra Leone People’s party will attempt to secure a second term amid a spiralling economic crisis following COVID-19. Recent changes to the country’s electoral process, so-called political manipulation and socio-economic grievances will be underlying drivers of unrest. The elections will be tightly contested, increasing the risk of protests related to the announcement of results.

International SOS recently conducted a trip to Douala and the capital Yaounde in Cameroon to validate our assessment of the security environment, and to gather information against predetermined requirements. Senior Security Specialist Isla Brown talks about her key takeaways, with particular reference to the anglophone crisis in the Northwest and Southwest provinces and the threat posed by Islamist militants in the Extreme North province. (A nine-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines how socio-economic grievances and security developments are increasing political instability in Chad and explores the potential for conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. In Canada, wildfires are expected to continue to pose a risk to business operations, while in Guatemala, political tensions are likely to rise during the first round of the general elections. In India, disruption is anticipated around planned protests in several states, while in Papua New Guinea, violence is likely to persist amid the potential reopening of the Porgera mine. In Europe, significant disruption and heightened security are expected during Pride events, while in Russia, the conflict in Ukraine is likely to impact its border areas. In Sudan, a quick resolution of a conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces remains unlikely despite mediation efforts, while in Syria, the country's return to the Arab League is expected to pave the way for its reintegration into the region.

Events are due to take place across Europe to celebrate Pride month. International SOS discusses the security implications for the LGBTQ+ community amid increasing violence against it. Tarun Nijjer, Lead Security Analyst for Europe, and Lead Security Analyst for West and Central Africa, Kirna Kataria, offer advice on how to keep safe during the celebrations, and how the situation will differ between countries and continents. (An 11-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Turkey returns to the polls on 28 May for the second round of the presidential election. In the short term, tensions and election-related disruption are most likely around the release of the results. Lead Security Analyst Polina Vynogradova provides an assessment of the impact on the security environment of the possible outcomes in both the short and long term and sets out International SOS's advice to clients. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Increased activity at Popocatepetl, Mexico’s largest volcano, has led to flight disruption and the closure of some schools in the area. The National Centre for Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED) on 21 May raised the alert level to yellow phase three, meaning people living nearby should prepare for possible evacuation. International SOS's security specialist Paulina Bouchot and Medical Director, Dr Albert Castano assess the security implications and offer medical advice. (An 11-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

What are the long-term security implications of natural disasters in Vanuatu given climate change? And how do residents prepare for the frequent cyclones, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that hit the small South Pacific country, and stay safe when they occur? Alex Murray, Security Manager for the Australia, New Zealand and Pacific region at International SOS, recently travelled to the capital Port Vila assess preparedness. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS recently conducted a trip to Bogota and Cali in Colombia to assess the security situation, accommodation options and provider capability. Jaime Lopez-Aranda, International SOS’s senior manager for intelligence and assistance for Latin America, also updates us on levels of crime in rural areas. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

On 17 May, President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly (parliament) through a constitutionally permitted decree. The move – despite being controversial and provoking condemnation by several sectors – is unlikely to prompt immediate unrest but could have security implications in the future, including around snap elections in the coming months. Lead Security Analyst for South America David Quispe discusses the impact of this event, and what we are advising our clients. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

It's one of the world's newest sovereign states, granted full independence just over 20 years ago. But East Timor faces a series of problems – a weak economy, crime, and the risk of natural disasters. East Timor is about to stage its fifth parliamentary election and International SOS's Lead Security Analyst for the Australia, New Zealand and Pacific region, Steven Paterini, has recently been in the country. In this podcast he provides the latest information and advice on the security implications of the polls. (A 10-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The recent arrest of Pakistan's former prime minister, Imran Khan, has led to heightened political tensions, protests and unrest in the country. While Khan has now been released, he faces more than 120 criminal charges. Protests by Khan's supporters and counter-demonstrations by government supporters are likely to continue, particularly in the capital Islamabad. International SOS's lead security analyst for Pakistan, Louise Hogan, has been telling us about the challenges facing Khan and setting out what his arrest means for the country. (A 13-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The 29 May inauguration of president-elect Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is taking place within the context of lingering political tensions as losing candidates continue to reject the electoral outcome. The Nigerian authorities have also issued several warnings recently of attempts to disrupt the swearing-in ceremony. This Insight Report assesses that a major security incident remains unlikely. However, those with operations in Nigeria should plan for small-scale protests and logistical disruption around the event.

Wildfires throughout Europe have increased in frequency and severity in recent years. The 2022 wildfire season (from June to September) saw the largest area of land burnt by fires since 2006. This trend is expected to continue with this year’s season, potentially being equally as destructive. This Insight Report examines the risks associated with wildfires and describes mitigating measures for managers to prepare workforce.

Turkey will go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday 14 May. International SOS recommends deferring non-essential travel from 13-20 May to several provinces, including the capital Ankara and Istanbul province, where we expect the vote to be particularly contentious. Regional Security Manager Beatrix Renaut has been to Istanbul to speak to local security and logistics partners to assess the risk of disruption and unrest following the election. (A six-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

More than 50 million people are eligible to vote in Thailand’s elections, amid debates about the extent to which the country’s military should be involved in politics. International SOS Workforce Resilience Manager Sarawut Thamjun is on the ground in Bangkok, and joins Adhiraj Mukerji, Security Director for Information and Analysis, to discuss the election, what’s at stake, the risks in the coming weeks and the latest advice for clients. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Opposition leader Ousmane Sonko recently received a prison sentence which may prevent him from running in the February 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, a new opposition movement has called for nationwide demonstrations against a potential third term for President Macky Sall. Security Specialist Angus Calder describes how these developments may drive unrest, and what managers should do to prepare. (A six-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.)

Turkey goes to the polls for a general election on 14 May, just over three months since major earthquakes struck the country. There are several plausible outcomes of the presidential and parliamentary votes, which could present a range of risks to people and operations. Lead Analyst Polina Vynogradova provides insight into the situation in Turkey, and what managers need to consider in the weeks ahead. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.)

Karnataka state legislative assembly elections scheduled on10 May will witness heightened political activity in the form of rallies, protests, marches and high-profile visits. A range of issues, including alleged corruption, state border dispute, civic infrastructure and unemployment will dominate the campaign. While large-scale violence is unlikely in the electoral period, disruption is expected in the state especially in urban centres. This Insight Report assesses the impact of the election and its impact on business continuity.

The Atlantic Hurricane season will begin in June. John McMurray, International SOS' Lead analyst for North America and the Caribbean and Security Specialist for the Americas region Kristen Kozar deployed to Puerto Rico to better understand the situation on the ground since Hurricane Maria resulted in significant damage to the island in 2017. They met security providers and government officials, and visited hotels, to assess how prepared Puerto Rico is and offer risk mitigation recommendations for those operating in or travelling to territory. (A nine-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.)

Three weeks into the conflict in Sudan, the public health situation in the country continues to deteriorate. According to the latest reports from the World Health Organization, most health facilities in the capital Khartoum are now closed, and the risk of diarrhoeal diseases is high as the water supply is disrupted. There have also been outbreaks of dengue and malaria, and essential commodities are running very low. Dr Ryan Copeland, International SOS Regional Medical Director, Assistance, has provided this latest assessment. (A 15-minute listen).Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.)

As fighting continues in the capital Khartoum, International SOS is monitoring the regional impact of the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Although recent ceasefires have allowed some people to escape, there are fears the power struggle within the country’s military leadership could have consequences for Sudan’s neighbours. International SOS’s lead security analyst for East and Southern Africa, Salome Odhiambo and Security Director Holly McGurk, who covers west and central Africa, set out our analysis. (An 18-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

This Monthly Security Forecast covers the issue of organised crime in Mexico and Colombia. Meanwhile, heightened tensions linked to political developments should be anticipated in Kenya, Senegal and the US. In East Timor and Thailand, elections will prompt protests and related disruption. Anti-government protests are likely to continue in Greece, Lebanon and Tunisia.Tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran will continue to affect the security environment of both countries.

High-impact actions such as blocking roads and stopping traffic by climate activists can disrupt businesses and frustrate commuters. Extinction Rebellion, one of the biggest global environmental groups, has opted to change its tactics. International SOS' Security Specialist Adriana Rot-Laugel has assessed the evolving climate activism trends in Europe. (A 12-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS is working hard to evacuate people from Sudan amid the ongoing conflict. Director of Operations Ricus Groenewald provides an update on the aviation and maritime routes available, the biggest challenges that are being faced, and what we are doing to keep people safe. (An 11-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The situation in Sudan continues to be perilous for civilians who remain there. Electricity and water supplies have been intermittent in the capital Khartoum. Essential supplies, including drinking water, food, medication and diesel fuel are also under pressure in the city. International SOS has worked closely with partners to coordinate a successful evacuation of several clients from Khartoum to Port Sudan. This follows a widely respected ceasefire, in place until 23:59 on 27th April. Phil Nolan, International SOS' Security Director for Assistance in Dubai, has been overseeing the developments in Sudan and working with colleagues on our evacuation plans. He spoke to Mark Frankel, our Director of Content Operations.

Early presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on 14 May. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's and the ruling Justice and Development Party's decade-long political dominance face growing criticism over mismanagement of country's economy and emergency response following the February earthquakes. Heightened political tensions will drive the risk of election-related violence, and unrest will be most likely in the days after the elections while the votes are counted. The scope of unrest will depend on the result and extent to which the parties challenge its legitimacy.

Hostilities in the capital Khartoum are expected to persist in the coming days amid confrontations between the army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group. The heaviest fighting is concentrated in Khartoum state and Darfur region. We advise clients to continue to stand fast and prepare to evacuate, while international mediation efforts aimed at reaching a ceasefire are continuing. There has been disruption to essential services, including water and electricity supply, internet and communications. Dr Ryan Copeland, regional medical director for assistance for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, speaking to Mark Frankel, Director of Content Operations, also says healthcare services are currently restricted to emergency care only. (A 13-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS is closely monitoring the situation in Sudan. On 18 April, we are advising people to stand fast due to fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Amid attempts to broker a 24-hour humanitarian ceasefire we spoke to International SOS’ lead security analyst for the Mashreq and Iran region, Polina Vynogradova, and Dr Ryan Copeland, regional medical director for assistance for Europe, the Middle East and Africa for their assessment of the current situation. (A 13-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Widespread power cuts are causing huge problems across South Africa, with millions of people affected every day. The crisis is affecting the economy, impacting businesses and threatening security, and South Africa's struggling power network is warning there is no end in sight. In the latest podcast, International SOS' lead security analyst for east and southern Africa, Salome Odhiambo, joins senior security specialist Anelisiwe Hatto. Both have recently been to the country, and explain the background to the power crisis, its impacts, and outline the latest advice for businesses and individuals. (A 14-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Security Director Holly McGurk and Security Manager, Assistance Benedikt Zimmermann recently conducted a visit to Congo (DRC) to reinforce our assessment of the country. Here, they speak about their trip, our assessment of the security and logistical environment, and what clients should do if it deteriorates. (A six-minute watch). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

In this audio update, International SOS’ lead security analyst for Israel Rory Keith examines what’s behind the recent protests against Israel’s judicial overhaul plans and looks ahead to when, if and how they might re-emerge later in the year. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS recently conducted a trip to Uganda to review the country's security environment, secure accommodation options and provider capabilities. Anelisiwe Hatto, Senior Security Specialist – Information & Analysis, spoke to Content Producer Chris Giles and provided an update on our capability to support clients on the ground. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

After the terrorism threat level in Northern Ireland was raised from substantial to severe, International SOS' Lead Security Analyst for Europe, Tarun Nijjer, discusses what precautions should be taken to ensure your organisation's and people's safety and assesses the situation alongside other recent political developments (asix-minute listen).Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The abduction of four US nationals by purported members of the Gulf Cartel near the downtown area of Matamoros (Tamaulipas state) in early March garnered global media attention. Although Matamoros, like most of Tamaulipas, is considered a HIGH-risk location because of the prevalence of violence related to organised crime, the incident was still unusual due to the victims’ profiles and other details. Most of Mexico’s major touristic destinations and urban centres continue to be relatively safe for business travellers. Since 2018, the kidnapping rate has decreased significantly nationwide, including in Tamaulipas. However, it remains a moderate concern and security managers and business travellers should continue to take stringent precautions.

This Monthly Security Forecast covers the issue of organised crime in north-eastern Mexico and rising gang violence in Haiti. It also explores the security risks around the political transition in Guinea and impeachment proceedings against Ecuador’s president. Environmental protests in European cities around Earth Day will be disruptive, while demonstrations in Georgia over a controversial draft bill will continue. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka is gearing up for local elections and South Africa is grappling with power outages. The threat of kidnappings is rising in Papua New Guinea’s Highlands region, while recent rapprochement efforts between Saudi Arabia and Iran will test regional dynamics. The forthcoming holiday period will drive security risks in Israel and Palestinian Territories, as will controversial judicial reform in Israel.

Guinea is currently undergoing political transition following a military coup in late 2021. Although the military government has agreed to hold elections in the West Africa country in 2025, tensions remain high. Despite implementing a ban on demonstrations, a new coalition, les Forces Vives de Guinee, has called for anti-government protests in the capital Conakry. Kirna Kataria, Lead Security Analyst for West and Central Africa, and Chiara di Fiore, Senior Security Specialist, discuss the current situation. (An eleven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Authorities in Philadelphia (Pennsylvania state) have advised most residents in the city to reconsider drinking and cooking with tap water following a chemical spill in a nearby creek. Keely Dennis MPH, Public Health Coordinator, and Mike Rogers, Security Director Information & Analysis for the Americas, both based in International SOS’s Philadelphia Assistance Centre, discuss the situation in the city.(A seven-minute listen).Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Pakistan is simultanously experiencing three crises: a deteriorating economic situation, an escalating terror threat and increasing political instability. Tensions have been running high since the country's former prime minister Imran Khan (in office 2018-22) was removed from office in April 2022. Recently there was an escalation as the government sought to have him arrested. International SOS' Lead Security Analyst covering Pakistan, Louise Hogan, gives her assessment on the problems the country is facing and the likelihood of elections taking place later this year. (A 15-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Mike Rogers, Security Director Information & Analysis for the Americas, and John McMurray, Lead Analyst for North America & the Caribbean, discuss the potential security risks of a possible decision to indict former president Donald Trump. (A nine-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Increased security operations will continue to be a key feature of the security environment in Mexico and Central America throughout 2023. In Mexico, the government will continue its crackdown on organised crime groups and implement heightened security measures around key infrastructure and development projects, notably in Sonora state. The 2023 state elections in Coahuila and Mexico states are likely to experience disruption related to organised crime, with the potential for political violence growing across the country as the 2024 general elections approach. Meanwhile, in much of Central America, stringent exception policies – entailing a suspension of some constitutional rights – and a heightened security presence will remain a defining feature of the security environment. These are very unlikely to be seriously challenged in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua throughout 2023.

The French government has just survived two votes of no confidence related to controversial pension reforms that will see the retirement age rise. The votes were called after the government invoked constitutional powers on 16 March which allowed it to pass a bill without a vote. Since then there has been a series of protests, and unions have called for a national day of action on Thursday 23 March comprising demonstrations and strikes across the country. The latest demonstrations follow months of protests related to the pension reforms. (A five-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS recently conducted a trip to South Sudan's capital Juba to assess accommodation options within the city and provider capability on the ground. Phil Nolan, Security Director, Assistance covering East and Southern Africa, who was last there in 2019, says there has been a lot of development in the city since then. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

We recently undertook a review of the security environment in Mexico, and revised some of our Risk Ratings for the country as a result. Our teams take into account a wide variety of sources when it comes to making their assessments including trends on social media, data contained in recent reports and in-country visits. Mexico has also recently seen a number of demonstrations and our analysts predict further unrest in the run up to 2024's election. (A 12-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

International SOS' ability to provide clients with up-to-date advice and information around healthcare and evacuation capabilities comes through an in-depth understanding of the local security, healthcare and logistics landscape. Lead Security Analyst for the Middle East including Iraq Polina Vynogradova gives us an update on the security situation in Baghdad, while Jon Mills, Director of Assistance Operations for the Middle East and Africa, provides insight about a recent trip to the city to visit and credential both existing and new network providers. (A 13-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

A wave of anti-French feeling is sweeping across West Africa, and Russia seems to be winning a battle for regional influence. But what does that mean for businesses and people at risk from unrest across countries including Mali and Burkina Faso? Security experts from International SOS explain the background, have the latest advice, and look ahead to what could happen across the region in the coming months. (A 12-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Do you travel for work and what can you do to stay safe? Mackenzie Grahek, International SOS' Security Manager, Managed Services, has some useful tips to make you feel more relaxed and confident about going away on business, helping you to better prepare for your trip and protect yourself from any security threats you could potentially face. #IWD2023 #InternationalWomensDay (An 11-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Following the deployment of the various regional and international security forces along the Uganda-Congo (DRC) border in December 2021, joint military operations have made notable gains against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Consequently, attacks conducted by the ADF have steadily declined since the increase in incidents in October and November of 2021. However, the group remains entrenched in some forested and rural areas of western Uganda and retains the capability of staging well-co-ordinated attacks. This report outlines the current trajectory of the ADF, unpacks the nature of its attacks in Uganda, highlights the military operations established to curb the insurgency and offers recommendations to managers considering deployment in the country.

Rory Keith, International SOS' Lead Security Analyst for the Palestinian Territories and Israel, shares insight into the ongoing cycle of violence following the 26 February riot in Huwara, and gives us his assessment of the security situation in the area. (A four-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

This insight report examines how three key trends– militancy, political instability and socio-economic unrest– will affect the security environment in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023. Drawing on comparative experience and data, International SOS analysts highlight risks to businesses before offering advice to managers to help mitigate these risks.

Security Manager Taylor El Hage, currently deployed to Nigeria's capital Abuja, provides a summary of the situation on the ground following general elections on 25 February. Taylor gives some insight into the complications arising from the naira redesign policy and associated cash shortages, and our outlook for the next 24 hours. (A four-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Several incidents at the start of 2023 – including allegations of a foiled coup – have driven the relationship between Moldova and Russia to an all-time low. Closely coinciding with the first anniversary of the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine, the developments illustrate the continued security ramifications of the conflict on surrounding countries. The situation in Moldova requires ongoing monitoring as economic issues, related social unrest and the threat from external actors pose persistent challenges to the country’s stability.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines security risks around elections in Kazakhstan and Montenegro and rising anti-president sentiments in Ecuador. El Salvador’s security environment faces uncertainty and the possibility of sudden deterioration amid a crackdown on gang members.Countries in the Asia Pacific will see disruption during the festival period in March and April as the south-eastern US states brace for potential severe weather. In Solomon Islands, growing strife between the federal and provincial governments could drive further unrest. Syria and Turkey battle the aftermath of two massive earthquakes. Criticism of relief response in the latter country could lead to protests accompanied by unrest.

Pakistan is experiencing three acute crises: a deteriorating economic situation, an escalating terror threat and increased political instability. None of these challenges is likely to be resolved in the coming months, exacerbating Pakistan's already complex security environment. This Insight Report provides additional context, outlook and escalatory triggers to monitor for the months ahead.

Three weeks after a series of earthquakes hit Turkey and Syria, what is the potential lasting economic and political impact of this natural disaster? With elections due in Turkey in a few months, International SOS' Lead Security Analyst for Mashreq and Iran Polina Vynogradova outlines some of the challenges for the rebuilding operation and what it might mean for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (An eight-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Twelve months after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, what is the situation on the ground? And what is likely to happen in the coming months? In the last of three podcasts marking the anniversary of the conflict, we hear from International SOS' lead security analyst for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Louise Hogan, on where both sides are, what both want, and what could come next. Plus, lead security analyst for Europe Tarun Nijjer tells us about the wider impact of the conflict, and the efforts to help people caught up in the crisis. (A 13-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, goes into a critical election facing significant security and economic challenges. The election is a big test of Nigeria's political institutions, and there are significant fears of unrest in the weeks ahead. As the election period begins, International SOS' Lead Security Analyst for West and Central Africa, Kirna Kataria, has the latest on the candidates and the security challenges ahead. And Security Specialist Olajide Olasehinde has advice for those needing to keep their people and operations in Nigeria safe. (A 12-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

The security environment in the Asia Pacific region in 2023 will be moulded by internal political factors, insurgencies and terrorism, and natural calamities, apart from intra-regional foreign relations. It is likely to be compounded by the US-China tensions which heightens security vulnerability, and also affects trade and supply chains. Rising commodity prices, including fuel, and climate change will increase insecurity among the masses and can cause more political instability. The Myanmar crisis, which may not be resolved this year, remains a major security flashpoint, contributing to the overall deterioration of the security environment in the country.

A range of events related to terrorism, elections and socio-political crisis are likely to have a significant influence on the security environment across South Asia in 2023. In addition, geopolitical developments globally are likely to have impact on local economies and cost of living, contributing to the further deterioration of the economy. This, coupled with the impacts of climate change are expected to have a deteriorating effect on political stability. These conditions may result in a complex security environment, magnifying risks and affecting business continuity.

After a year of fighting in Ukraine, what is the state of the country's healthcare system? In the second of three podcasts marking the anniversary of the conflict, we hear from experts at International SOS and Iqarus on how the health system was affected. We also find out what it was like to work as a paramedic in the heart of the battle. (A 13-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Global Security Manager Gizem Acar, currently deployed to Turkey, provides a summary of the situation on the ground in Turkey following the major tremblors that struck the country on 6 February, and discusses the spotlight that is now being shone on preparedness for future earthquakes. Gizem sets out our advice to clients operating in this highly seismically active area. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

An outbreak of Marburg virus disease has been confirmed by the authorities in Equatorial Guinea and the World Health Organization is deploying teams to trace its spread. It is a rare viral haemorrhagic fever, against which there is no known treatment or vaccine. International SOS' medical director Dr Kate O'Reilly and Security Director Holly McGurk share the latest information on the outbreak and offer advice on how to stay safe. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

This Insight Report examines the key security concerns in South America during 2023. These include the continued potential for bouts of widespread and/or sustained unrest in several countries. Scheduled elections in the region and their potential security implications will be reviewed. The report will also examine the security implications of the conflict between armed groups and the Colombian and Venezuelan governments. Related violence is continuing despite renewed bilateral diplomatic relations.

International SOS was able to rapidly respond to the unfolding situation in Turkey following the significant earthquakes that struck the country on 6 February. Security Director for Assistance Phil Nolan, who coordinated our Incident Management Team, provides an insight into the decision-making process behind our response, and how we have been able to help clients. (An ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Ryan Copeland, Regional Medical Director Assistance, Europe, Middle East & Africa, talks to Content Producer Chris Giles about how the medical situation has developed in Turkey since earthquakes struck on 6 February, and how it is now evolving. Ryan sets out our current advice to clients, and what International SOS is able to do to help.(A six-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

A week after the devastating earthquake hit Turkey, the focus of relief operations is beginning to switch from the search-and-rescue phase to caring for the survivors. International SOS Global Security Manager Gizem Acar, who has been deployed to Turkey, tells us that in one of the worst-affected areas, Hatay province, the airport has now reopened. It is hoped this will help speed up getting badly needed aid to the people who need it. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

It is a year since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. In the first of a short series of podcasts on the crisis we look back at how International SOS prepared for the worsening security environment and helped clients once the fighting began. Phil Nolan, Security Director for Assistance, and Viktor Panchak, Security Solutions Director, discuss the help still being provided today and talk about the lessons learned for all those involved in keeping businesses, operations and people safe. (A 14-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Global Security Manager Gizem Acar, deployed to Turkey, provides an update on the situation in Turkey following the major earthquakes that struck the country on 6 February. The operational environment is complex and evolving, with access to some affected areas opening up, but fresh challenges emerging. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

What is the current operating environment in Turkey, what are the challenges faced by responders and how can International SOS help? Ryan Copeland, Regional Medical Director Assistance, Europe, Middle East & Africa, talks to Content Producer Chris Giles about International SOS' response to the devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey on 6 February, and our advice to people caught up in their aftermath. (An eight-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Global Security Manager Gizem Acar, currently deployed to Turkey, speaks to Content Operations Director Mark Frankel about the challenges of operating in Turkey following the major earthquakes that struck the country on 6 February, and what International SOS can do to help clients. (An eight-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Lead Security Analyst Polina Vynogradova discusses the impact of the series of significant earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria on 6 February, and what we are advising our clients. (A six-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Tribal conflict, violence and criminality continues to rise across Papua New Guinea. Internal mass migration, increasing levels of poverty and prevalence of informal settlements, and the proliferation of weapons continues to drive such insecurity. Traditional geographical hotspots have evolved, with tribal violence and criminality spreading to previously less affected regions. This report examines this growing levels of insecurity in the country, looks ahead to how these risks may develop in the near future, and provides recommendations to mitigate some of the key risks individuals and organisations face.

Senior Security Specialist Baani Gambhir discusses the impact of the series of significant earthquakes that struck Turkey on 6 February, and what we are advising our clients. (A 3.30-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine violence linked to gangs in Caribbean countries as well as organised crime groups in Mexico following the arrest of a cartel leader. In Africa, anti-French unrest and harassment will escalate in Burkina Faso, while incidents of violence in Nigeria will increasearound the upcoming elections. Political demonstrations in India will become more frequent around key events, while local elections and controversy surrounding Independence Day celebrations will drive protests in Sri Lanka. In Europe, protests and strikes will persist in France over proposed pension reform, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will see Ukraine seek to regain its strategic advantage. In the Middle East, further reconciliation talks between Syria and Turkey will stoke regional tensions. Meanwhile, the South Pacific tropical cyclone season will impact security and logistics in the region.

Israel’s newly formed 37th government comprises a coalition of right-wing and religious and nationalist parties. Its policies and agenda as well as controversies surrounding its members will impact the security environment in Israel by driving an increase in protests, a worsening of relations with Israeli Arabs and the potential for conflict with neighbouring countries. This Insight Report examines the security implications for organisations and workforce in Israel stemming from these factors.

In November 2022, the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) reached a cessation of hostilities agreement (CoHA) following a two-year conflict. The announcement coincided with a planned deployment by International SOS' Lead Security Analyst for East and Southern Africa to Ethiopia to enrich our assessment of the risk environment, particularly the capital Addis Ababa.

Peru is gripped by political instability, with protests demanding the return of its deposed president. The rapidly changing situation has seen business travellers, students and other visitors caught up in the unrest. In the latest podcast, International SOS' Security and Assistance experts set out the context, and have the latest advice for anyone in Peru, or due to travel there. Plus we find out how some people have been helped out of potentially tricky situations during the protests. (A 12-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

Pakistan faces a renewed terror threat in the coming months, with a resurgent Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) increasing its attacks across the country. The heightened threat comes as Pakistan tries to deal with concurrent crises including a deep economic crisis, political instability and the aftermath of 2022’s catastrophic flooding. This Insight Report examines the risks posed by the TTP and evaluates the potential response options for the government and military.

Security Manager Intelligence and Assistance Michel Isidore discusses the impact of the national day of strikes and protests on 19 January on the security and logistical environment in France, and what we are advising our clients. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

This Insight Report examines the key security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa region during 2023. Regional tensions will persist amid a growing rift between Iran and Western powers. Meanwhile, we expectthe Mediterranean to be a flashpoint, fuelled by rivalries over energy exploration, border delineation and territorial claims. Bilateral tensionswill also drive insecurity in border areas, particularly between Turkey and Syria. Meanwhile, political instability and economic downturns will pose further challenges in the region.

With COVID-19 restrictions lifting across the world, International SOS has been able to deploy its security teams to enhance our assessments of the risks associated with operating environments. In early November 2022, Kirna Kataria, Lead Security Analyst for West and Central Africa, and Erika Weisbrod, Security Director for Assistance for Europe, Maghreb & Sahel and West & Central Africa, conducted a five-day security accreditation trip to Nigeria. The aim of the trip was to enrich our assessment of the security environment and to engage and fortify our security provider and information network, particularly ahead of the February-March general election.

On 8 January, thousand of supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro (in office 2019-22) took over seats of the legislative, executive and judicial branches in the capital Brasilia to protest against the newly elected President Luiz Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva. Lead Security Analyst for South America David Quispe discusses the impact of this event and similar episodes of unrest on the security and logistical environment in Brazil, and what we are advising our clients. (A seven-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

This Insight Report examines the key security concerns in the Europe & CIS region in 2023. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and its political and economic impacts will dominate the security landscape in Europe, Russia and Central Asia. As the conflict continues, the economic and political ramifications will be felt across the broader region. Socio-economic concerns will be a key driver of social unrest in Europe this year, while in Central Asia and the Caucasus, renewed conflict will be a key driver of instability.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine gang-related violence in Ecuador and El Salvador, and communal unrest in Papua New Guinea. The pro-democracy movement in Eswatini, anti-government protests in Iran, political rallies in Bangladesh and demonstrations over the new Brazilian government will persist. Sudan’s new framework deal, Nigeria’s re-designed currency and Central Asia’s energy shortage issues will also drive protests. Chad and Central African Republic will see elevated armed cross-border activity. Far-right ideologies are gaining a firm foothold in Germany while extremist groups in the US continue to target the LGBTQ+ community. Myanmar will see sustained clashes around key dates.

Nigeria will hold general elections in February and March 2023. Elections have historically been characterised by an increase in political and ethno-religious violence. The forthcoming polls are also taking place within the context of rising insecurity nationwide and the decline of the two-party dominance in politics. This Insight Report examines the impact of new challengers during the election period. The assessment is based on three likely scenarios which are determined by the potential outcomes of the polls.

Violent crime is on the rise in Papua New Guinea. With the authorities struggling to contain the situation, we set out the action needed to keep clients’ people and operations there safe. Alex Murray, Security Manager, ANZ Pacific, discusses the security landscape, including key takeaways from a recent in-country assessment. (An 11-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this podcast.

Following the declaration of the results of the 20 November elections, Nepal is bracing for political instability due to the potential for a 'hung parliament'. The deadline for federal government formation is 7 January.This report is a culmination of on-ground research, collating insights from polling day and the week following it. It draws on interactions with multiple stakeholders in the Kathmandu Valley and Terai region to present a holistic understanding of the impact on the security environment and recommendations for organisations operating in Nepal.

Ecuador is seeing a surge in violent crime. We look at how serious the situation on the ground is, what is behind the rise in attacks, and how the authorities are struggling to cope. Senior Security Specialist Sara Elyoumni discusses what clients need to do to keep their people and operations safe. (A 12-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this podcast.

On 7 December Pedro Castillo was removed as president of Peru and detained by the police. Dina Boluarte, his former vice president, was sworn in as his replacement, becoming Peru’s sixth president in less than five years. Lead Analyst, South America David Quispe on 8 December spoke to Mark Frankel, Director, Content Operations about the impact of these events on the security and logistical environment in Peru, and what we are advising our clients. (A ten-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the upcoming elections in Fiji and Tunisia as governments in Mali and Peru face political unrest. This winter season, in Bangladesh and across Europe, demonstrations related to economic issues are likely to increase. Heightened security measures and associated disruption are expected across Asia-Pacific during the holiday season. Violent crime will continue escalating in Guanajuato state (Mexico), and cross-border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan will persist. Meanwhile, Ethiopia's government struck a cessation of hostilities agreement in Tigray. Finally, Turkey is expected to continue military operations in Syria and northern Iraq.

A political crisis in Bolivia sees one of its major cities, Santa Cruz, grind to a halt. What is behind the protests and roadblocks, and what is likely to happen next? Lead Security Analyst, South America David Quispe explains the situation, and what managers need to do to keep people and operations in the country safe. (An 11-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this podcast.

The impacts of climate change are being felt more and more. As global leaders meet again at COP27 in Egypt, International SOS’s Global Security Director Sally Llewellyn discusses the kinds of climate-related security issues we are monitoring, particularly as an additional driver of insecurity. This podcast highlights some of the issues that International SOS has analysed this year and some of the themes we expect to see in 2023. These themes and risk environments will be explored in further detail in our upcoming Global Security Outlook. (An eight-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this podcast.

The Likud-led coalition of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu (in office 1996-99; 2009-21) won a majority in the 1 November parliamentary election. He is set to return at the head of what many analysts are calling the most right-wing government in the country's history. Security Manager Taylor El Hage discusses the three main ways we assess these developments will impact businesses and their workforce. (A three-minute listen). Please take a few seconds to give us your feedback on this update.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the effects of upcoming elections in Israel, Kazakhstan, Nepal and the US. Uganda will see a crackdown on online activity under recent cybercrime laws, and Europe will continue to deal with cyberattacks. The UN is debating a military intervention in Haiti following a request for help, and is trying to broker a new ceasefire in Yemen. Iraq’s political impasse continues as leaders fail to find consensus in forming a government. Tensions will remain heightened on the Korean peninsula around upcoming key dates. Southern and eastern Africa are facing the start of the south-western Indian Ocean cyclone season.

In this audio update, Pratheek Cherukupalli, our Lead Security Analyst, South Asia, discusses our evaluation of the situation in Nepal amid upcoming elections. Access a full assessment here. (A two-and-a-half minute listen)

Brazil will hold a run-off election on 30 October to determine the next president of the country. Two polarising figures are facing off: incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro (in office 2019-present) and former president Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva (in office 2003-10). In this podcast, International SOS’ Director of Intelligence for the Americas Mike Rogers and Lead Analyst for South America David Quispe give an update on the security environment in Brazil and possible scenarios once the results are released. See our Insight Report on the election for more information and take our survey to improve your listening experience.

In this audio update, Rory Keith, our Lead Security Analyst, Maghreb and Sahel, discusses our evaluation of the situation in Burkina Faso following the coup in September. Access a full assessment here.(A one-minute listen)

Qatar will host the 2022 FIFA World Cup from 20 November to 18 December.More than a million visitors are expected in the capital Doha, where the tournament will take place. Qatar is the smallest country in history to host the tournament, which is expected to put significant pressure on the local logistical environment and business operations. This report examines the associated logistical challenges, regulations introduced to manage the influx of visitors, as well as security considerations in Qatar’s LOW-risk security environment.

On 25 September, Italy voted in what has been described as its most right-wing government in a century. This short audio update discusses our top-line assessment of this development and what we expect it to mean for the security environment.(A two-and-a-half minute listen)

In this issue of the Monthly Security Forecast, we explore the relationship between militancy and rising insecurity in Burkina Faso and Somalia. Elections in Brazil and Peru are likely to occur amid elevated tensions and civil unrest. Meanwhile, recent negotiations between indigenous groups and the government will be crucial in shaping Ecuador's security environment. Further bouts of criminal violence are expected across Mexico amid a government crackdown on cartels. Heightened security measures and associated disruption can be expected in India and Bangladesh during the festival period. Cross-strait tensions are anticipated in China and Taiwan around upcoming key dates. Severe cross-border clashes in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan underscore the risks present in shared border areas. A notable increase in Israeli raids in the West Bank (Palestinian Territories) has been accompanied by fatal violence. Lebanon continues to deal with unrest sparked by a protracted economic and political crisis.Finally, we examine the ramifications of the ongoing energy crisis in Europe.

On Sunday 2 October Brazil will go to the polls for the first round of its presidential election. The front runners are the polarising figures of incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro (in office 2019-present) and former president Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva (in office 2003-10). We expect them to go through to a second-round run-off on 30 October. In this podcast, International SOS’ Director of Intelligence for the Americas Mike Rogers discusses our outlook for the security environment around and after the election. For further reading, see our Insight Report.

After several tense months, Brazilians will soon decide between former president Luiz Inacio 'Lula'da Silva (in office 2003-10) and incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro. Polling data suggests that neither candidate will win outright on 2 October, necessitating a second-round run-off on 30 October. While International SOS does not assess a military led coup to be a likely outcome if Bolsonaro loses at the polls, there is a heightened risk of political violence over the coming weeks. This report examines the likely impacts of the final stage of the electoral cycle on the security environment and provides recommendations for navigating such challenges.

Devastated by flooding, Pakistan faces a battle to rebuild, after what has been called a ‘monsoon on steroids’. The crisis unfolds as the country faces economic and political turmoil, with warnings that things could get even worse. Our podcast Crisis in Pakistan answers the questions: What is the situation on the ground? And what is likely to happen next? A 12-minute listen.

Ukraine has made substantial territorial gains in recent days. Here, Security Manager Louise Hogan talks through the key takeaways for what this means for the country's security and operating environment in the near term.A two-minute listen.

Kenya’s Supreme Court has upheld the results of the 9 August general election, following a challenge from defeated presidential candidate Raila Odinga. Here, Security Manager Salome Odhiambo discusses what this could mean. We analysed the election and its implications in our earlier podcast Kenya votes, what you need to know and our Insight Report Kenya: Election Outlook: Unrest, violence following 9 August general elections.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the catalysts for unrest in the lead-up to the elections in Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Nigeria. In Chad and Chile, demonstrations may be sparked by the referendums on their new draft constitution. In Sudan, anti-military protests continue despite ongoing negotiations, while increased tensions may jeopardise the humanitarian truce in Ethiopia. Transnational militant groups continue to operate freely in Afghanistan. Armenia and Azerbaijan will continue to engage in skirmishes over Nagorno-Karabakh, and economic instability will fuel public discontent in Bangladesh.

International flights have resumed, but the aviation industry is facing several logistical challenges in West Africa. How are rising fuel prices, industrial action and natural disasters impacting aviation operations in the region? What is the outlook for the coming months? We explore these topics in our podcast, Aviation's Perfect Storm. International SOS and our aviation and maritime services at MedAire are monitoring the situation and updating clients with the latest information and advice.

Coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea face an increasing threat posed by Islamist militancy. This continues to primarily affect northern border areas due to their proximity with militant strongholds in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. This expansion should be assessed at a regional level due to militant expansions coming north to south as well as east to west. This Insight Report examines the dynamics of the evolving militant threat in Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo and offers advice to mitigate associated risks.

Kenya will hold general elections on 9 August, and precedent indicates the country could see an increase in ethno-political unrest and violence during the election cycle. What risks do people face during this period? What can you do to prepare? We explore these topics in our podcast, Kenya votes, what you need to know. International SOS has been monitoring the campaign period ahead of the election, updating clients with the latest information and advice. Also see our Insight Report, published on 20 July, Kenya: Election Outlook: Unrest, violence following 9 August general elections.

The military takeover in February 2021 transformed the security and operating environments in Myanmar. Prevailing security risk and operational challenges necessitate workforce to have robust preparation and enhanced awareness. This Insight Report, drawing on observations by our team following a recent visit to the country, aims to provide an overview of the main risks and difficulties facing business travellers in Myanmar in order to help managers better plan deployments of workforce.

One year after the fall of the internationally recognised government, the Taliban have largely consolidated their control over the country. However, the security environment remains volatile, particularly in northern provinces. This Insight Report examines the group’s first year in power, identifying key security issues, including terrorism and intra-Taliban clashes. It also provides an outlook for the security environment in the coming months.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the potential for protests around the forthcoming elections in Angola and Kenya. The economic crisis in Argentina and the ongoing election in Papua New Guinea are the catalysts for unrest. Meanwhile, cartel activity poses the main threat to the security environment in Mexico’s Sonora state. Further demonstrations fuelled by the economic and political crisis are expected in Sri Lanka. Tensions persist on Belarus’ border with Ukraine, while enduring disputes between Greece and Turkey mean fraught bilateral relations. Disruptive protests may re-emerge in Algeria and the unstable security environment in Yemen will persist.

Sri Lanka faces the most serious political and economic crisis in its history. A president forced from office, an economy close to collapse, fuel and medicine in short supply. What are the risks? And what is going to happen next? We explore these topics in our podcast, Sri Lanka's political crisis. International SOS has been monitoring the situation throughout the crisis, updating clients with the latest information and advice. Also see our Insight Report, published on 14 July, Sri Lanka: Understanding the economic crisis and implications for business continuity.

Kenya will hold general elections on 9 August. Elections have historically been characterised by an increase in ethno-political unrest and violence. This Insight Report assesses the risks of post-election violence and provides preparatory risk mitigation advice. The assessment is based on three likely scenarios which are determined by the potential outcomes of the polls.

Recent talks between the US and Iran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal) have so far been fruitless. This Insight Report discusses two scenarios of the revival prospects and their security implications for the Levant and Gulf. It also provides managers with escalatory triggers and advice for early preparation amid heightened uncertainties.

Sri Lanka is facing one of the worst financial crises since its independence in 1948. A decline in foreign reserves and certain government policies have led to a crippling economic crisis and an acute shortage of essential resources. The situation is expected to persist throughout 2022. Near-daily anti-government protests and associated unrest are likely to maintain their momentum. This report provides an in-depth assessment of the on-ground risks, an outlook of the security environment over the coming months, as well as necessary mitigation measures for managers to secure their workforce and account for business continuity.

What should you be doing to prepare your business for hurricane season? This podcast provides advice on how to be ready for what could be another intense series of storms. It gives an insight into what International SOS does to monitor and analyse the risks, and provide humanitarian, medical and security assistance both before a hurricane hits and after it has passed. It also discusses how International SOS helped a company that found itself facing a massive hurricane in 2021. For more on our analysis and advice for the 2022 hurricane season, see our related Insight Report.

The potential for unrest has heightened since Papua New Guinea entered its polling period for a general election on 2 July. The winning party is expected to emerge victorious with a narrow margin, further heightening political tensions. The counting phase and the period following the announcement of results remain particularly vulnerable, with likelihood of attacks on voters or winning party candidates and supporters. This Insight Report examines the electoral dynamics and associated security risks around the polls. It concludes by offering recommendations for managers on how to navigate them and indicators to detect any deterioration in the security environment.

Wildfires in North America, particularly in parts of Canada and the US, have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in recent years. Various factors indicate that the trend of destructive fires will continue. The report assesses their risks and impacts on workforce and operations. It also provides guidance for managers to prepare the workforce and facilities to mitigate the risks associated with these natural disasters.

Several recent high-profile incidents of violence in Paraguay have illustrated the expanding presence and influence of organised criminal groups in the country. The increase in criminal activity, felt most in Paraguay’s border departments with Brazil as well as to a lesser degree within the capital Asuncion, was first noted in 2018 but has spiked acutely since 2020. Security operations in the border departments of Alto Parana, Amambay, Canindeyu and Concepcion are unlikely to repel criminal presence in the medium term. This report examines the rising risk associated with organised criminal presence in parts of Paraguay and provides related recommendations.

In this issue of the Monthly Security Forecast, we look at the upcoming elections in Papua New Guinea and Senegal. Tensions in the border areas of Rwanda and Congo (DRC) are brewing while the violence in Chile will continue. India will continue to see protests over several issues, while businesses in Canada, Mexico and the US face a devastating wildfire season. In Indonesia, separatist attacks in Papua and West Papua provinces will persist. Georgia battles political uncertainty while European countries face a worsening energy crisis. Diplomatic issues between Israel and Lebanon, and Turkey and Syria will have a regional impact.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has had far-reaching negative impacts across the globe. This insight reports assesses the effects on countries in sub-Saharan Africa and analyses the security implications over the coming six months. It also provides advice for managers on how to prepare and respond to these risks. The report also touches on some opportunities that lie ahead for sub-Saharan African countries.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has polarised nations in the Asia-Pacific region along various fault lines. The conflict has also had an economic impact in the region, because of rising commodity prices and a further decline in tourism due to the absence of tourists from Russia and Ukraine. The most affected countries are those still reeling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their economies. This report takes a deeper look at the geopolitical and security implications of the crisis on the Asia-Pacific region.

A leaked draft opinion in an ongoing Supreme Court case has signalled the possible overturning of the 1973 Roe v Wade decision, which federally protects abortion rights. The development will generate further political division and negatively impact the security environment in the US in the coming weeks. This Insight Report examines the potential impacts of the two scenarios in which Roe v Wade is either overturned or upheld as well as related security concerns in the interim.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from 1 June to 30 November, is forecast to yield above-average activity with around 14-21 named storms, including up to ten hurricanes. This Insight Report examines the preparation for and response to hurricanes. Comprehensive procedures should be in place to ensure business continuity. These should include appropriate thresholds for the timely suspension of travel to affected locations.

In the June issue of the Monthly Security Forecast, we explore the impact of political instability on the security environments in Eswatini, Sudan and Tunisia. Benin and Togo are facing a heightened risk of militancy in border areas. The economic crisis in Sri Lanka has spurred a protest campaign that shows no sign of relenting. Rising crime and gang violence in Ecuador and El Salvador have prompted states of emergency that are likely to continue in the foreseeable future. Further attacks and provocations in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria are expected throughout June. Finally, the Ukrainian conflict has no end in sight, with Russian forces focusing on gaining territory in eastern and southern parts of the country.

As Colombians prepare to hold presidential elections on29 May, neither the leftist candidate Gustavo Petro nor the right-wing's Federico ‘Fico’ Gutierrez are expected to garner more than 50% of the vote and a second round is likely, to be held on 19 June. Widespread demonstrations with potential for unrest are likely in the lead-up to, and aftermath of, each vote. Organised criminal groups, including far-right narco-paramilitary groups and far-left guerrillas will continue to engage in acts of violence around the electoral process. They will mainly target the security forces and government infrastructure.

As Haiti's security environment has deteriorated steadily in recent months, kidnap-for-ransom and violent crime risks affecting foreign and local nationals have grown in prominence significantly for organisations with continued exposure in the country. Heavily armed gangs retain strongholds, primarily in the capital Port-au-Prince, and have the intent and capability to abduct high-value targets, both foreign and domestic, including sometimes en masse. Organisations with exposure in Haiti should ensure stringent physical and procedural security measures are in place at residences and workplaces, and during overland movement, especially in and around the capital, and ensure preventative and response measures are robust.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will generate notable security impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean. Rising fuel prices and disruption to the Russian market are poised to provoke unrest and political fallout across the region. It is also likely to influence crime, in particular enticing fuel theft in Mexico and potentially other locations, as well as impacting the ongoing armed conflict at the Colombia-Venezuela border. This report examines the conflict’s most likely and impactful consequences in the region, and provides guidance for monitoring and responding to related developments.

President Gabriel Boric faces two security crises, the first related to illegal migration in the northern provinces and the second to extremist violence in the south. Boric inherited active states of emergency (SoE) implemented by his predecessor in response to an increase in unrest and extremist violence in the affected areas. He is now seeing pressure from the local authorities to maintain the tough measures, while facing ideological opposition to the SoEs. This Insight Report analyses the Boric administration’s handling of the crises, as well as advice and triggers to monitor should the situations escalate.

This Insight Report provides a one-year outlook on South Africa’s security environment, which has continued to deteriorate amid a gradual decline in political stability and socio-economic conditions. The report assesses prevailing crime and protest trends and looks at the implications of these developments on terrorism risks in the country.

In the May issue of the Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the repercussions of upcoming elections in Colombia, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Philippines and Thailand. Sri Lanka and Iraq continue to grapple with crises that are impacting their political stability, while Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Finland and Sweden will be making key decisions that will impact regional security. Finally, Mozambique will see a surge in militant activity as the wet season comes to an end in May.

Parliamentary elections will take place on 15 May amid significant economic turmoil. Although candidates affiliated with the 17 October 2019 protest movement are participating and anti-establishment sentiment is high, there will be no significant change in the balance of power. This Insight Report examines the electoral dynamics and associated security risks around the polls. It concludes by offering recommendations for managers on how to navigate these.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, rival candidates will contest national and local political posts in the highly anticipated 9 May polls. These will be dominated by the presidential front-runners, namely former senator Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr and Vice-President Maria Leonor ‘Leni’ Robredo. Election-related violence, civil unrest and militant activity, especially in designated electoral hot spots, pose incidental risk to workforce. These should be addressed by risk managers through business continuity and contingency plans.

Over the past two years, military coups have taken place in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan, driving instability, uncertainty and the risk of unrest. In countries such as Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali, the coups occurred in the context of deteriorating security situations, and the political transitions will complicate the governments’ response. This report assesses the likely trajectory of the transitional processes, the prospects for anti-government protests, and the impact on the ongoing counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism efforts. It also assesses whether these coups could be ‘contagious’ and trigger copy-cat power grabs in other countries in the region.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has reshaped the European political and economic environment. The EU and NATO have levied unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia, while supporting Ukraine with significant military assistance. A major influx of refugees has arrived in bordering nations and moved onwards to Europe, while the conflict continues to affect an ongoing European energy crisis. This report outlines the European response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the security implications of the crisis on the continent.

Violent crime has risen significantly since 2017 in the Mexican Caribbean, including in the popular tourist destinations of Cancun, the Riviera Maya and elsewhere in Quintana Roo state, due to an ongoing turf war involving various drug cartels and local criminal gangs. This has recently garnered global media attention, as there was an increase in shootings in popular tourist areas in 2021 and early 2022. The expansion of violent crime beyond traditional trouble spots in the Cancun Metropolitan Area into historically less conflictive areas of Quintana Roo necessitates that security managers continue to monitor the activities of criminal groups and adapt policies accordingly.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is having significant political and security impact on the Middle East and North Africa. This Insight Report examines the regional implications as rising global commodity prices increase the risk of social unrest in some locations and the diversion of international attention towards Europe threatens to disrupt other conflict resolution efforts. It also looks at how the new geopolitical and economic realities in the region are putting traditional alliances to the test. It concludes with advice for managers on how to navigate travel to the region during the conflict.

The conflict between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government has been ongoing in Ethiopia since November 2020. Meanwhile, the rebel Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has gained notoriety within Oromia and poses increased threats. These developments are increasingly compromising broader peace and stability within Ethiopia. This Insight Report assesses the prospects for peace talks between the TPLF and federal government in the coming year, the risks posed by the OLA, and impact of these developments on the overall security environment against the backdrop of other domestic and global developments.

After more than a decade of isolation, a stalemate in the Syrian civil war is providing an opportunity for several countries to shift their policies and return Syria to the fold. This Insight Report provides an overview of the regional efforts to normalise relations with the al-Assad government and the obstacles hindering a full rapprochement over the coming months. It also offers an assessment of the implications this will have on international travel to Syria and recommended steps for managers.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is casting a shadow over many countries. The April issue of the Monthly Security Forecast discusses issues in Europe, CIS and Latin America on which the conflict will have a bearing. Political issues are looming large in Guinea and Kenya in Africa, Peru in the Americas, and France, Hungary and Serbia in Europe. Haiti's security situation will remain volatile, while in the Asia-Pacific region India will see further communal tensions and Myanmar's security environment will continue to deteriorate. In the Middle East, Ramadan celebrations will return to normal, but the Palestinian Territories will see protests.

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on 24 February, Russian troops have advanced into Ukraine from four directions. In three weeks, they have made varying progress. This Insight Report provides expert assessment of the current situation sets out some possible scenarios for potential outcomes depending on the two sides' willingness to continue pursuing their objectives militarily.

South Korea’s eighth presidential election on 9 March is highly contested between two leading candidates from the ruling Democratic Party (DP) and the opposition conservative People Power Party (PPP). While the likelihood of open conflict remains highly unlikely, the winner will impact the country’s foreign policy as the two parties have historically had distinctive approaches towards North Korea. This report examines the implications of the election outcome for the country’s relationship with North Korea and the wider regional geopolitical dynamics, and offers recommendations for managers.

The March issue of the Monthly Security Forecast covers the escalating violence and continued unrest in Chile, Colombia and Mexico in the Americas. In the Commonwealth of Independent States, it looks at the clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In Africa and North Africa, it examines the security implications of political developments in Central African Republic, Libya and Zimbabwe. In Asia, Sri Lanka will likely see further protests due to the ongoing economic crisis. In the Middle East, Jordan will continue to tackle cross-border issues with Syria.

The October 2022 Brazilian general elections will see President Jair Bolsonaro square off against former president Luiz Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva (in office 2003-10). The months ahead of the vote will be characterised by a highly politicised climate and associated security challenges. During this period, demonstrations and incidents of political violence are likely in urban centres. This report examines the propensity for escalation as the vote draws near and offers recommendations for managers to navigate such challenges.

State legislative elections are currently underway across the country. While polling has concluded in Goa, Punjab and Uttarakhand states, elections are upcoming in Manipur and Uttar Pradesh states. Heightened political tensions, coupled with already prevalent risks, will contribute to creating a complex operating environment in the coming weeks. While campaign events by senior political leaders will cause significant disruption due to large numbers of attendees, the risk of localised political or communal unrest also cannot be entirely ruled out. Additionally, Manipur and Punjab have also witnessed attacks by separatist militant groups prior to the elections. This report provides an in-depth assessment of the on-ground risks and mitigation measures that managers can take to secure their workforce.

More than 30 major elections are scheduled in the coming year. Polarising figures will be a key feature in many of them and the results of some high-stakes elections in Africa, Europe and the Middle East could have far-reaching cross-border or regional implications. Although each election will be determined by local grievances and power dynamics, the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be a central theme. In this global Insight Report, our security experts assess the elections scheduled in the next 12 months, with an added focus on those with a high likelihood of increased unrest, violence and/or conflict.

Tensions in and around Ukraine remain high, with more than 100,000 Russian troops stationed at the border. Amid joint military exercises with Belarus, high-level diplomatic talks between all sides continue in an effort to find a resolution. This Insight Report provides expert knowledge on the current situation, assesses the most likely scenarios and provides actionable advice to assist clients in navigating relevant security risks.

This Insight Report looks at the main security themes and flashpoints that could affect your risk management planning in 2022. This year, the top four global trends to watch are: the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; climate change and extreme weather events; the geopolitical dynamics of China-US competition; and evolving terrorism dynamics. While these trends will manifest differently and to varying degrees across regions, general uncertainty and volatility will continue to require nimble and informed responses from risk managers and business decision-makers.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we cover the run-up to upcoming elections in India and the Philippines, and the completion of polls in Somalia. Insecurity will persist in the border areas of Benin and Burkina Faso, and Colombia and Venezuela. Ongoing conflicts in Myanmar and Sudan will continue to affect the security and political environment. Protests will be fuelled by socio-economic grievances in Kazakhstan and Turkey, and a secessionist rhetoric in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Additionally, carjackings will see an upward trend in the US.

China is preparing to host the 2022 Winter Olympics (4-20 February) and the Paralympics Games (4-13 March), with the related Games events centred primarily in the capital Beijing and its environs. COVID-19 remains an ongoing concern, with the authorities taking a host of COVID-19-related measures to ensure the successful conduct of the Games. During this period, organisations with Games participants or working personnel should pay attention to adverse weather conditions amid the winter season as well as other aspects likely to impact the operating environment, including information security and cybersecurity issues.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the risks around upcoming elections in Senegal, as well as the potential for security incidents in Cameroon during the Africa Cup of Nations football tournament. Protests can be expected in India during the February parliamentary budget session and across Europe amid the tightening of COVID-19 restrictions. Ongoing conflicts in Iraq, Mexico, Morocco and Myanmar will continue to negatively impact the security environments in those countries, whereas a widespread political crackdown in Russia created a more stable political environment. Weather-related disruption is likely in Southern and East Africa amid the ongoing south-west Indian Ocean cyclone season and in northern America during the winter season.

Conflict between Myanmar’s rival political establishments - the military administration and the parallel civilian National Unity Government – has persisted since the military takeover in February. Both sides continue to seek ways to increase their legitimacy and improve their military capabilities, sustaining the ongoing conflict and moving further away from reconciliation. This Insight Report examines how the conflict has evolved over the last 11 months and the current state of play, along with our expected outlook for the coming months.

Amid increasing migrant arrivals and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Europe is now pondering what to do if a surge of Afghan migrants and refugees seek to enter the EU following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. This report examines the current state of migration into Europe through case studies and recent data, as well as the potential political and security implications of increased and ongoing migration in the coming months and years.

Hong Kong (China SAR) will hold Legislative Council elections on 19 December, the first elections after the 2019-20 protests. They were originally slated for 2020, but delayed twice due to COVID-19 concerns. Hong Kong will then hold the Chief Executive election on 27 March 2022. The city will not see a return of large-scale protests, but small factions of hardliners may attempt low-level attacks on security force and government interests around these key dates. This Insight Report discusses both elections, their impact on the security environment and their implications for the opposition movement and future governance.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the increased security posture in Mexico and Uganda, as well as the potential for unrest due to COVID-19-related restrictions throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. Elsewhere, long-running anti-government demonstrations continue to grip India and Thailand. The security environment remains volatile in Haiti, while tensions between Russia and Ukraine are on the rise. There is also a heightened risk of unrest in Libya in the run-up to the 24 December presidential election, while people in Europe are advised to monitor the terrorism risk during the upcoming holiday period.

Despite a worldwide decline in piracy in 2021, piracy risks will remain high in the Gulf of Guinea, the global piracy hotspot. Piracy offshore and associated criminality onshore will continue to be reported across countries that bound the Gulf of Guinea. The lack of a united task force at the regional and international levels and the inadequate training of local navies have allowed pirates to expand their operations. This report examines this growing maritime insecurity in the region, looks ahead to how these risks may develop in the near future, and provides recommendations to mitigate the main risks.

The general elections in Honduras on 28 November hold significant potential for escalation, including incidents of social unrest and political violence. Former presidential runner-up Salvador Nasralla’s decision to drop out of the race and ally with leftist candidate Xiomara Castro appears to have altered the outlook substantially. Latest polling data show Castro having a notable lead over National Party candidate Nasry Asfura. However, critics have raised concerns regarding the integrity of Honduras’s electoral infrastructure. A contentious electoral cycle, marred by allegations of electoral fraud or irregularity, would likely trigger widespread unrest in urban centres. This report examines the risks associated with the electoral cycle and offers recommendations to navigate related challenges.

Five years have gone by since a sit-down strike by lawyers and teachers, denouncing the perceived marginalisation of the English language in the public sphere, triggered a crisis largely known today as the anglophone insurgency. This report takes stock of how the situation has evolved on the ground, analysing emerging attack patterns, modus operandi and access to reliable information, and looks ahead at how the crisis may develop in the months and years to come.

India and China have been locked in confrontation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) for more than 18 months. This follows an escalation in tensions due to clashes between their troops along the LAC in June 2020. While both sides have disengaged from several conflict points in the past months, wider tensions prevail amid fundamental disagreements over border demarcation. This Insight Report examines the status of conflict de-escalation and the broader implications of boundary disagreements on the India-China relationship in the coming months. It also forecasts the way forward in terms of potential conflict scenarios.

The tropical cyclone season in the South Pacific and Australia typically occurs between November and April. This season, nine to 11 cyclones are expected to impact the South Pacific, while Australia could experience up to 12 cyclones. These weather systems may cause travel disruption, significant infrastructural damage, increased security concerns, and casualties. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated movement restrictions will continue to impact government response and the provision of aid to affected areas. This report examines these issues and offers recommendations on appropriate steps to take ahead of, during, and after a cyclone.

Nicaragua will hold general elections on 7 November. These have drawn international attention due to President Daniel Ortega’s administration’s arrest of opposition candidates, leaving Ortega as the only candidate for the presidency. Operational challenges are expected in the lead-up to and the aftermath of the elections, affecting companies and organisations, particularly NGOs, and those with media and medical affiliations.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the risks around upcoming elections in Chile, Gambia, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria and the Philippines. Long-running protest campaigns will continue in India and Tunisia and fresh demonstrations will be held in the UK around the UN Climate Change Conference. Ongoing conflicts in Myanmar and South Sudan will continue to negatively impact the security environments in those countries.

Since 2017, the Islamist extremist al-Sunnah group has staged attacks in Cabo Delgado province with growing frequency and scale. By contrast, the government has struggled to contain the threat posed by the group. Following the deployment of various regional and international security forces to Cabo Delgado since July, joint military operations have made notable gains against al-Sunnah. However, the risk of further attacks persists. This report provides an outlook of the security environment in Cabo Delgado in the coming year and offers recommendations with regard to managing the associated risks.

Expo 2020 will run in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) until 31 March 2022. The event, which is aiming to attract 25m visitors to the UAE over a six-month period, will heighten demand for transportation and accommodation options in Dubai. This Insight Report looks at the logistical impact of Expo 2020 and offers advice on how best to minimise travel disruption during the fair. Although the UAE’s LOW risk security environment remains unchanged, the report also examines and assesses the relevant security risks, including road safety, cultural sensitivities and terrorism.

A majority of well-observed religious festivals fall during October-November, often accompanied by public festivities and processions. Risks associated with terrorism, petty crime and communal unrest increase during this period, with the authorities implementing heightened security measures to mitigate them. Other notable risks during the festival season are traffic accidents, stampedes and fires. Demand for transport and accommodation also increases during this period. This report assesses the aforementioned risks and provides associated recommendations to managers to help them plan operations and travel in the coming weeks.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the political landscapes of African countries such as Guinea, Chad and Mali, which have all seen military takeovers recently. In South Africa, the lead-up to municipal elections in November is likely to see politically motivated violence. More and more anti-vaccine protests in Europe are turning violent, whereas the government’s perceived mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic is driving disruptive protests in Thailand. Indian security agencies have warned of terror attacks during the upcoming Hindu festival period. Developments related to Libya’s politics and Iran’s nuclear programme are affecting regional stability, while Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to engage in border skirmishes over Nagorno-Karabakh. Haiti continues to reel from grave socio-economic and political crises and El Salvador is seeing protests related to Bitcoin as legal tender.

Federal elections on 26 September will mark a milestone for Germany, with Chancellor Angela Merkel stepping down after 16 years in power. Although it remains unclear who her successor will be, the winner will ultimately be determined by the winning coalition. Several coalitions are possible depending on the outcome of the vote, with each one likely to shape German policy in different ways. Whether a ‘Jamaica’ or a ‘Kenya’ coalition, or perhaps a ‘Traffic Light’ formation, prevails, the country will continue to experience bouts of social unrest and protests against COVID-19 restrictions as well as over environmental issues, which the new government will have to contend with in the months to come.

The death of Abubakar Shekau, the leader of the Islamist extremist People of Sunnah for Preaching and Jihad (JASDJ, also known as Boko Haram) group, was confirmed in early June. Since then, the security dynamics in north-eastern Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad region have evolved, allowing the rival Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) to exert greater territorial control. This report navigates the new militant geography and modus operandi, and examines what lies ahead for the region in Shekau’s absence.

Iraq will host early parliamentary elections on 10 October following nearly two years of anti-government demonstrations across the capital Baghdad and southern governorates. Although the elections aim to appease protesters, they are unlikely to do so given the low likelihood of a significant political shake-up. This Insight Report evaluates the heightened risks accompanying the upcoming electoral cycle, including social unrest, political violence and attacks perpetrated by Islamist militant groups. Recommendations are provided for managers and in-country workforce on how to mitigate these risks, as well as escalatory triggers to monitor for a potential deterioration in the security environment.

This month’s Security Forecast revolves around two key themes: the climate and natural disasters, and popular discontent. An unusually severe wildfire season will continue to affect the US and Southern Europe, while Haiti is reeling from a very destructive earthquake and tropical storm Grace, both of which struck in August. Protests by climate change activists are also due to cause disruption across Europe. Meanwhile, popular discontent will continue to drive tensions and protests in countries across Africa, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Violence is particularly likely in Thailand and Ethiopia.

Russia will hold State Duma (parliamentary) elections from 17-19 September, after a tumultuous political year, marred by countrywide protests and a widespread crackdown on independent political opposition. This report examines the election’s likely outcome, its political implications for long-time leader President Vladimir Putin and the expected impact on the security environment, including the potential for further unrest.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the increased potential for protests in Algeria and Tunisia in response to COVID-19 restrictions. We look at Zambia gearing up for general elections, as political wrangling in Nepal, Haiti and Iraq continues. Rebel and mercenary violence will persist outside Bangui in the Central African Republic, while the Taliban consolidates its territorial gains in Afghanistan amid US troop withdrawal. In South Africa, periodic bouts of unrest can be expected following widespread looting and rioting in July. Over in Venezuela, gang activity has escalated in western parts of Caracas, while a crackdown on anti-military activity continues in Myanmar. Direct hostilities between Russia and Ukraine remain unlikely, despite confrontations in the Black Sea and ceasefire violations. Further extreme weather events could disrupt travel across Europe throughout the month.

The postponed 2020 Summer Olympics will take place from 23 July to 8 August in Tokyo and eight other prefectures across Japan amid the COVID-19 state of emergency. TheParalympics will be held from 24 August to 5 September. This Insight Report highlights health, security and travel-related challenges during the Olympics. Natural hazards remain the primary risk, as well as COVID-19-associated restrictions and health risks. This Report examines such risks and various logistical practicalities to help facilitate a better-informed, better-prepared and safer Olympic experience.

The typhoon season in the North-west Pacific region runs throughout the year, though most typhoons develop between May and November. The 2021 season is forecast to see slightly below-average tropical cyclone activity, with an expected yield of 15 typhoons and nine intense typhoons. At the same time, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions will continue to pose challenges to organisations and complicate governments’ disaster response and recovery operations. This report assesses the potential impact of typhoons given the current situation in the region and offers recommendations on appropriate actions to take ahead of, during and after a storm.

This Monthly Security Forecast looks into protests over various socio-economic issues in India, Iraq and Lebanon. The political situation will improve in Cote d’Ivoire, but worsen in Belarus and Nicaragua amid ongoing political crackdowns and in Somalia in anticipation of a long-postponed election. Violence will continue in Haiti due to gang activity and Myanmar due to anti-military attacks. The security environment will change over the coming months in the Sahel region as France draws down its years-long Operation Barkhane. Travel in Europe will be easier from 1 July following the official start of a new COVID-19 travel initiative.

Our security teams across the globe have examined the legal framework and social attitudes that largely shape, in 2021, the risks faced by members of the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender and Queer/Questioning (and more, LGBTQ+) community. In this Insight Report, they look at recent trends and highlight notable developments in their regional overviews, as well as providing recommendations to manage associated risks.

Wildfires throughout the western US have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in recent years. The 2021 season, from June to September, is projected to continue this trend, potentially becoming one of the worst years on record. This report highlights California state in discussing the wildfire forecast, as well as details the risks and describes mitigating measures for managers to prepare their workforces and facilities.

The lower house of parliament on 22 May was dissolved for a second time in less than a year, exacerbating a political crisis that started amid infighting in the ruling party. The Supreme Court is currently hearing petitions filed against the dissolution. Regardless of the nature of the court verdict, political instability will persist in the coming months, heightening the risk of social and political unrest. With political parties focused on forming or bringing down governments, response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been negatively affected, aggravating a severe health crisis. This report assesses the various risks associated with the political turmoil and provides recommendations to managers to help them plan operations in the coming months.

Following fatal anti-government unrest in March, Senegal entered a period of heightened political tensions not witnessed since 2012. This Insight Report highlights developments around the March protest wave, including the likelihood of further bouts of protests in the coming months, particularly closer to key electoral periods in 2022 and 2024. It provides indicators of deterioration in the situation to monitor in the coming year, as well as analysis and recommendations to help security managers prepare for the upcoming tense electoral periods.

After the ‘Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan’ (R-ARCSS) was signed in 2018, hopes were high. The agreement officially brought an end to the South Sudanese Civil War, marking a new chapter of stability for the world’s youngest country. Yet this has not materialised. Violent intercommunal unrest and banditry along interstate highways now typify South Sudan’s security environment. This report explores the underlying factors driving these trends and discusses the measures that can be put in place to mitigate the risks facing mobile workforces operating in-country.

The 2021 hurricane season, from 1 June to 30 November, is expected to see above-average tropical cyclone activity, including up to 14 hurricanes. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to present challenges in terms of contingency and evacuation planning due to persistent entry restrictions and other factors. Government response may too be strained by pandemic-related issues, heightening the need for comprehensive plans with clear thresholds for any necessary escalations in posture to ensure business continuity.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the potential for unrest around elections in Ethiopia, and the implications of increased secessionist activity in south-western Nigeria. Anti-government protests are set to persist in Colombia, while mid-term elections in Mexico carry an attendant threat of violence. In India, we look at COVID-19’s threat to political stability, while the risk of separatist militancy in Indonesia will endure and further political unrest is likely in Nepal. Further clashes linked to a border dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan can be anticipated, while elections in Moldova are set to proceed amid heightened tensions. However, there is a low risk of unrest during the presidential election in Iran.

The 6 June mid-term elections will be the largest in Mexico’s history, with more than 20,000 federal, state and local-level positions to be filled. The entirety of the Chamber of Deputies (lower house of the federal legislature), 15 governorships and 30 state legislature positions will be filled. The electoral season has been marred by high levels of political violence, including more than 140 assassinations of candidates, pre-candidates, journalists and other individuals involved in the political process. Further targeted killings, as well as an increase in confrontations between organised criminal groups in HIGH risk areas, are expected in the lead-up to and the aftermath of the elections.

While violence associated with extreme-leftist Naxalite rebels has steadily decreased, they remain entrenched in some areas and retain the capability to stage intermittent large attacks. A major attack targeting the security forces in April in Chhattisgarh state highlights the continued risks posed by Naxal activity. Large attacks typically occur during the rebels’ annual counter offensive campaign in March-June. This report assesses various risks posed by Naxal activity and whether the COVID-19 pandemic has had any impact on the rebels’ capabilities. It also provides recommendations to managers with operations in Naxal-affected areas to help them navigate associated risks.

The national elections are expected to take place in mid-to-late June, though a specific date is unclear. The 5 June vote was postponed on 15 May due to logistical delays. The elections were previously scheduled for August 2020 before being suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The vote will occur amid ongoing conflict in Tigray state, heightened political and ethnic tensions, and escalating armed violence. This report outlines the likely outcome of the polls, as well as the prevailing security risks.

An early parliamentary election will be held on 20 June, following months of opposition protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. This report outlines the likely outcome. It also examines the risks and potential drivers of unrest as Armenia continues to navigate the changed political landscape following the 2020 conflict in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the rising threat of militancy in Nigeria and Mozambique and the security fallout from the death of Chad’s president Idriss Deby. Chile will hold its regional and constitutional convention elections as the US continues to witness demonstrations against systemic racism. The Indian security forces will step up operations against left-wing insurgency while anti-military protests will persist in Myanmar. Anti-lockdown protests continue in several European cities even as COVID-19 infections surge. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia remain heightened as the latter flexes its military muscles. Protests are possible in the run-up to legislative elections in the Palestinian Territories. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will win the presidential election amid a heavy-handed approach by the security forces.

Libya is gradually coming in from the cold, but there is still a long way to go. The signing of a ceasefire between eastern and western warring sides has provided the battered nation with the most promising news regarding its stability in a decade. What’s more, everyone seems on board. The risk of a resumption in outright armed conflict in the coming weeks and months is therefore low. Nevertheless, there is cause for continued concern. Persistent socio-economic grievances will not be addressed any time soon due to the interim government’s focus on Libya’s political transition. Additionally, foreign backers continue to watch closely from the shadows. They intend to use the (many) fighters and weapons they still control in Libya to shore up their geopolitical interests.

The end of the trial of former Minneapolis (Minnesota state) police officer Derek Chauvin has the potential to trigger unrest in urban centres countrywide. Chauvin is charged with killing George Floyd, whose death sparked months of widespread demonstrations over police reform, systemic racism and other issues in 2020. The anticipated verdict comes amid the backdrop of ongoing demonstrations following recent fatal police shootings in Illinois and Minnesota states. This report provides potential scenarios for the verdict as well as implications in terms of resultant unrest and recommendations for how to navigate such challenges.

US President Joe Biden announced on 14 April that his country’s troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by 11 September 2021, missing an earlier 1 May deadline set under the February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban. This report examines the security implications of the decision, such as a return to mass-casualty attacks in major urban centres – including the capital Kabul – and targeting of foreign personnel and assets. It also offers guidance to managers and in-country workforce on how to prepare for an escalation in violence over the coming months.

Multi-phased state assembly elections are currently under way in West Bengal state until 29 April, with first results expected on 2 May. There have been several instances of low-level political violence prior to and during voting. These reflect the intensity of political rivalries, particularly between the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The latter is seeking to establish a government in the state for the first time. This report outlines the various risk drivers during and after the elections, and provides recommendations for navigating related challenges.

This report outlines the elections scheduled to take place in the coming 12 months, with analysis of those polls where we expect a particularly close race, or where there is a high likelihood of unrest, violence and/or conflict. Indeed, while a variety of precautionary measures have enabled authorities to safely conduct elections from a health perspective, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to exacerbate political, economic, and social issues in many locations. Meanwhile, continued global COVID-19-related travel restrictions have increased the importance of early planning, in case managers decide to relocate or withdraw people ahead of an election, based on a comprehensive risk assessment.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have seen growing use around the globe by both state and non-state actors alike in support of combat operations and criminal endeavours. Their low-costs, widespread proliferation and proven capabilities against high-value assets ensures they will be a continually evolving and growing tool in the years to come. This report details current drone technologies and tactics, exploring how they have been effectively utilised in diverse regions and conflicts across the globe. The report also details the risk they pose to civil aviation, and reviews actions operators can take to mitigate the risks to aircraft and aircrew.

This Monthly Security Forecast examines the political climates in Armenia, Bulgaria, Djibouti, Peru and Senegal, as well as assesses the associated security implications ahead of scheduled elections in a number of those countries. In the US, recent mass shootings, incidents of racially motivated violence and an ongoing high-profile trial are likely to fuel further nationwide protests. At the same time, authorities across the country will continue loosening COVID-19-related restrictions amid the expanding vaccine rollout. Protests over various issues are likely to increase in Sri Lanka, particularly around the anniversary of the 2019 Easter attacks. Anti-military demonstrations and related civil disobedience campaigns will persist in Myanmar and continue to be met by a heavy-handed security force response. Further protests are also expected in Jordan over socio-economic grievances and the government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, though such events will be swiftly contained by the police.

As COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out globally, immunisation campaigns will shape not only the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also a variety of security risks, including misinformation, social unrest and crime. This report details the effects of misinformation on the effectiveness of immunisation programmes and the likelihood of attacks on COVID-19-related infrastructure. It also identifies the various types of unrest expected over the coming months and the relevant triggers, and the most recent developments in pandemic-related criminal activity. Despite the vaccine rollout, a return to normal operations will remain protracted and managers should maintain agile business operations over the coming months.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions have had a notable impact on Colombia’s security environment. Although clashes between outlawed armed groups and the security forces have declined amid the pandemic, organised criminal activity has persisted and in some areas expanded. In the absence of government provision of goods and services, criminal groups have filled in the gap to secure their hold on population and territory. Managers will need to account for an increase in organised crime activity, particularly in Colombia’s rural areas in the coming years. This report outlines the factors leading to a projected deterioration in the post-pandemic security environment and provides recommendations for navigating related challenges.

This Monthly Security Forecast gives insights into our assessment of elections and political developments in all publishing regions. In addition, countries are facing other challenges including the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic and natural disasters. Dissatisfaction with governments' response to the pandemic is exacerbating tensions, as are other social issues, such as a high-profile trial in the US.

Widespread and significant protest activity has taken place throughout Myanmar since the military declared a state of emergency on 1 February following its takeover. The military government has responded to the protests by imposing restrictions. These include a curfew, an intermittent suspension of telecommunications and a ban on gatherings of more than five people in several parts of the country. Protests have involved localised clashes between the security forces and demonstrators. Further such activity is likely, and may result in serious injuries and deaths. This report will explore potential scenarios that may arise if certain conditions are met. It will also provide insight into the operational complexities likely to challenge companies operating in, or sending business travellers to, Myanmar in the coming months.

This Monthly Security Forecast gives insights into our assessment of elections in Kosovo, Cote d’Ivoire, Central African Republic and Somalia and changes to the travel security outlook in those countries. The risk of political violence during demonstrations will persist in the United States, while opposition-led unrest against Haitian President Moise, whose term is to officially end in February, is likely. Social unrest over various issues continues to dominate the security environments in Turkey and India, while an ongoing political crisis is likely to persist in Papua New Guinea. In Russia, large protests will continue following the arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

A Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement halted six weeks of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh on 10 November. An uneasy ceasefire now holds but the ultimate political status of Nagorno-Karabakh remains unresolved and will continue to be a contentious political issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This report provides analysis of the conflict and looks at the likelihood of future flare-ups. It also provides insight on how organisations can navigate complex information environments and disinformation.

The federal government’s November 2020 military operation in Tigray state will have a myriad of knock-on effects on the country’s security environment, while conditions within Tigray will remain volatile in the months to come. How will Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reconcile the aftermath of the military operation in Tigray with the need to unite the country ahead of the long-delayed general elections in June? This report will explore the challenges facing Abiy in the lead-up to the elections, and detail the state of Ethiopia’s security environment. It will also provide insight into what companies operating in, and sending travellers to, Ethiopia can expect in the coming months.

This Insight Report looks at the main security themes and flashpoints that could affect your risk management planning in 2021. The COVID-19 virus has exacerbated key issues around the world, while also complicating how organisations respond to security incidents and emerging crises. The top four global trends to watch are: popular discontent amid a slowed global economy, geopolitical competition, the proliferation of mis- and disinformation, and climate change. While these trends will manifest differently and to varying degrees across regions, the general uncertainty and volatility fuelled by the pandemic will continue to require nimble and informed responses from risk managers and business decision-makers.

Uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic within the Asia-Pacific region, as well as rapidly changing information on mobility restrictions and government responses, have led to a uniquely fertile environment for misinformation and disinformation to thrive. This can be spread rapidly via social media platforms, traditional news sources, and even governments. This Insight Report examines the causes and effects of COVID-19-related misinformation and advises how best to deal with this as an organisation.

Presidential elections are due to be held on 10 January. A referendum on controversial constitutional amendments will also take place on the same day. The proposed amendments are likely to pass, despite disagreement from political opposition and civil society. Interim prime minister Sadyr Japarov appears to be the most likely presidential victor. The security environment in the country is unlikely to significantly change in the lead-up to the election, though there remains potential for related unrest in the event of a contentious result. This report will look at what can be expected around the vote, and provide an analysis of the possible scenarios arising from the election and referendum results.

January's Monthly Security Forecast explores how countries such as the UK, US and Mali deal with transition amid second and third waves of a global pandemic. It also delves into the implications of holding elections in Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan and Uganda in this tense and challenging climate. Social unrest over various issues continues to dominate the security environments in India, Indonesia and Pakistan, despite strict COVID-19 restrictions. In addition, heightened US-Iran tensions are anticipated ahead of the anniversary of the killing of an Iranian military commander.

A presidential election will take place on 14 January 2021. Polling will proceed in a climate of political intimidation targeting the opposition. Protests are likely to take place around the election, potentially resulting in widespread unrest, especially if the main opposition candidate is arrested or harmed. This report will look at what can be expected before and after the vote, and provide an analysis of the main possible scenarios arising from the election results.

This Monthly Security Forecast gives insights into our assessment of elections in Central African Republic, Ghana and Niger and likely changes to the travel security outlook there. In Ethiopia, military operations in Tigray state will further aggravate security concerns in the coming weeks. In America, the risk of political violence during demonstrations will persist in the United States, while sporadic unrest is likely in Peru in the coming weeks ahead of the April 2021 elections. In Asia-Pacific, localised unrest related to the 9 December local elections are possible in Indonesia. In Pakistan, opposition political parties will organise anti-government protests in urban centres, while ongoing political crisis is likely to persist in Papua New Guinea. In Europe, there will be an increased likelihood of further terrorist attacks amid the holiday season. In Belarus, protests calling for President Alexander Lukashenko’s resignation will continue. Over in the Middle East, the Yemen-based Houthi rebel group may carry out further cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia.

The tropical cyclone season in the South Pacific and Australia typically runs between November and April. Consequences include travel disruption, serious infrastructural damage, and casualties. In the 2020-21 season, the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions will continue to amplify challenges confronting organisations and their employees, particularly in archipelagos such as Fiji and Vanuatu. This report delves into these issues and recommendsthe course of actions ahead of, during, and in the aftermath of a cyclone.

Presidential and legislative elections will take place in Burkina Faso on 22 November. The elections will take place in a climate of insecurity, with militant groups in control of vast areas of the north and east of the country. Due to the security environment, several departments will not be able to participate in the vote, further eroding the credibility and authority of the government in parts of the country. This report will look at what is expected in the run-up to the vote and around the election day, while also diving into the long-term implications of the vote.

November 2020 will continue to be infused with worldwide demonstrations related to socio-economic grievances. Additionally, further attacks in Europe following France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial comments about Islam should be anticipated. Despite the apparent progress made with ceasefires pertaining to various conflict zones, the potential for the resumption of hostilities cannot be ruled out. This relates to lingering tensions along the border between Azerbaijan and the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the challenges facing Libya. Moreover, on 3 November one of the most anticipated and divisive presidential elections in US history will take place. Due to the emotive nature of the subjects which have dominated the campaign thus far, a victory for either candidate will likely spark demonstrations across the country.

Latin America has been hit hard by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Pre-existing issues of economic inequality, lack of confidence in authorities and underdeveloped healthcare systems have hampered government responses and led to notable knock-on impacts. This report provides guidance on navigating the challenges that the pandemic has revealed and heightened in the region, including crime and unrest. It also offers helpful tools, such as the COVID-19 Impact Scale, for planning a return to travel and operations in the region.

The general elections will take place on 8 November despite calls to reschedule it amidthe COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the elections are not expected to significantly alter Myanmar’s security and operating environment, given that the ruling National League for Democracy is expected to secure the most votes. However, restrictions on electoral campaigns and perceived limitations on freedom of speech may raise questions over the polls’ legitimacy, potentially prompting some gatherings post-elections. Furthermore, the authorities' recent cancellation of voting in conflict zones may trigger social unrest and exacerbate fighting in the affected areas, such as Rakhine and Chin states.

Following a period of unprecedented disruption to global air travel, many countries have relaxed or modified restrictions aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic; however, entry conditions continue to fluctuate, adding complexity to international movements. Domestic and international commercial air travel is possible for essential purposes with careful planning as well as a capacity to manage any possible delays and complications brought along by additional screening measures and administrative requirements. This Insight Report looks at the challenges associated with the ‘new normal’ of air travel and advises managers on adjusting their Return-to-Travel framework accordingly.

Wildfires in the ‘late season’ of 2020 have comprised some of the most destructive and expansive fires in California history. Various factors indicate that the trend of destructive fires will continue in the years to come. This report highlights the risks and impacts to staff and operations as well as guidance for managers on how best to prepare for and mitigate the risks associated with these natural disasters.

There is a heightened risk of unrest and political violence in the lead-up to and aftermath of the 3 NovemberUS general elections. Uncertainty surrounding the electoral process amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the exacerbation of existing ideological and political fault lines, the growth of fringe beliefs and potential militarisation are all expected to contribute to tensions and possible resultant violence. This report examines the potential outcomes and impacts for businesses and provides recommendations for managers to safeguard staff and assets.

Regional elections are expected to go ahead on 9 December amid calls for a postponement due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election is not expected to impact the overall security environment. However, health and economic concerns associated with the pandemic will compound political tensions, which typically increase during the electoral cycle. This may lead to an increase in localised unrest and protests. Misinformation and discontent over the Omnibus Law may exacerbate underlying issues during this period. The election is expected to elevate social unrest and militancy risks in the HIGH risk provinces of West Papua and Papua.

The presidential election period will start from 15 October with the first round on 31 October. Since the announcement of incumbent Alassane Ouattara's re-election bid in August, opposition and civil society groups have denounced several controversial aspects of the process, including the independence of the electoral commission, Ouattara's candidacy and the disqualification of opposition candidates. The election results are likely to be challenged and to trigger unrest. Given the political situation and the challenges posed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, managers should review current security arrangements to ensure evacuations can be implemented at short notice, including staff stand fast options, should a possible, though unlikely, post-electoral conflict erupt.

Georgia will hold its parliamentary election on 31 October. With the newly adopted electoral reform, the opposition, led by the United National Movement, hopes that it will be able to bring about major change, while ruling party Georgian Dream will find it challenging to remain in power as a unilateral government. We do not expect the election to result in significant change to the country’s overall security environment, but low-level electoral violence in the lead-up to and in the aftermath of the vote is expected. The risk of such violence occurring is heightened by the participation of the ultraconservative Georgian March group and the far-right Alliance of Patriot party in this year’s polls.

Clashes between Myanmar’s military and the insurgent Arakan Army (AA) have continued and intensified since the beginning of 2020, despite operational constraints related to the COVID-19 pandemic. They have also expanded outside of the insurgents’ traditional stronghold in northern townships of Rakhine and southern Chin states. This Insight Report analyses the motives and modus operandi of the actors involved. It also discusses the role this escalation plays a part in the upcoming general elections. Overall, the piece deals with the impact that such confrontations have on operations in and nearby the conflict zones and provides recommendations for establishing robust business-continuity protocols.

Naxal activity and associated violence has decreased in recent years, both in terms of scale and geographical expanse. Nonetheless, various rural and forested areas of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha and Telangana states continue to experience incidents, forming the basis of our rating of those areas as HIGH risk. This report looks at the various factors behind the reduction in the affected areas and scale of the Naxal violence, along with the target and tactics of such activities. Also, we aim to reiterate some key recommendations for managers with operations in affected areas to navigate the security challenges posed by Naxal violence.

Guinea will hold the first round of presidential elections on 18 October, with a possible second round in mid-November if no candidate reaches the necessary 50% threshold. The polls are likely to be a close contest between incumbent President Alpha Condé and long-time opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Protests, acts of rioting, as well as armed attacks between rival party supporters and the security forces will increase around the vote. This report outlines several scenarios around the upcoming elections, including relevant escalation triggers and key dates. It provides guidance to managers to prepare in-country staff for associated risks.

The onset of COVID-19 in Brazil exposed and exacerbated pervasive socio-economic inequalities. The federal government’s piecemeal response to the pandemic led to further suffering and endangerment of its most economically disadvantaged people. Organised criminal groups were able to further their own rule of law in favelas, and some indicators of crime in the country have increased, with others projected to rise in the medium- to long-term. Political division has led to bouts of civil unrest and political turmoil. This report examines the enhanced risks of travel to and operations within Brazil amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and provides an outlook with recommendations on how to navigate related challenges.

As various countries roll into election cycles, discontent over governments' handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is merging with other local issues to increase unrest. In some countries, restrictions could be reimposed at short notice, which will drive frustrations. Other governments are putting the pandemic to one side and pressing on regardless, such as the government of Myanmar which will hold its October election despite COVID-19, which could lead to its own problems.

Istanbul’s positioning in one of the world’s most seismically active zones means that a major earthquake is certain to occur at some point. Local projections indicate a 65% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or more occurring by 2039. This would pose a serious threat to life, damage critical infrastructure, disrupt essential services and interfere with communication networks. This Insight Report examines the threat posed by earthquakes in Istanbul and provides guidance to managers on developing disaster management and response plans, including taking into account additional challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The rivalry between al-Shabab and the Islamic State in Somalia will continue to be a defining feature of Somalia’s EXTREMEsecurity environment, while impacting regional security in the Horn of Africa, more broadly. This report analyses the origins of this growing rivalry between the two Salafi-jihadist franchises and its potential implications for Somalia’s security and political landscape. It also offers guidance for managers, including clearly identifiable escalatory triggers to monitor.

After several months of COVID-19 pandemic and already-evident second-order effects on crime, social unrest and political discontent, many governments have gradually lifted the strict and prolonged measures. However, this has increased the risk of reinfection and resurgences of the disease. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant threat to Africa. Amid complex local political and social environments, the pandemic is likely to become a multiyear challenge, resulting in further economic, political and social shocks. This report aims to evaluate the security implications of COVID-19 in Africa in the coming months and provide managers with advice on how to mitigate these risks.

Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions, violence linked to organised criminal groups remains a persistent feature of the country’s security landscape. This report examines how insecurity linked to organised crime will continue to present a key challenge for the government as cartels increasingly diversify their illicit activities and pursue an aggressive policy aimed at expanding their influence, leading to intense turf wars in ‘hotspots’.

The COVID-19 pandemic is having notable implications on the Middle East and North Africa security environment. US-Iran tensions will persist in the lead up to the US presidential election in November. While the economic fallout of the pandemic will hasten initiatives to localise labour forces across the Gulf, social unrest is unlikely to increase. In the main flashpoints, anti-government unrest will continue as longstanding grievances are exacerbated. COVID-19-linked measures will also be used by some to stifle domestic opposition. Finally, increased temperatures and demand for resources amid the pandemic will serve as a fresh diplomatic flashpoint between neighbouring states.

Six months from the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic, measures adopted to control its spread have had implications for security environments across the Asia-Pacific region. The severe economic downturn caused by the pandemic has fuelled socio-economic grievances which will likely underpin a high level of social unrest in the near term in most affected countries, such as Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Thailand. The socio-economic grievances triggered new sets of protests in some countries, while amplifying existing tensions in others. Meanwhile, militancy has persisted unabated in Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand. This Insight Report looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic and responses to it have affected local environments and provides recommendations to security managers on how to navigate and prepare for the security challenges heightened by the pandemic.

The economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic will become more prominent in the coming months across countries in Europe and CIS. Variations in COVID-19 outbreaks, government responses, levels of economic impact and pre-existing security issues mean that the pandemic’s economic, political and security consequences will vary from country to country. This report reviews the main security implications and regional trends of the pandemic and provides risk managers key flashpoints to monitor in the short-to-medium term.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the US security environment. While overall crime is down in most cities, there has been a notable spike in gun violence and homicides. Demonstrations related to police brutality and reform continue in urban centres, occasionally involving incidents of arson, looting and clashes with the police or counter-demonstrators. Meanwhile, a political and ideological gulf has widened amid the pandemic, leading some towards misinformation and extremist groups. The risk of politically motivated violence has increased in the run-up to and in the aftermath of the November general elections. This report provides recommendations to navigate the security challenges heightened by the pandemic.

The unprecedented global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to hit Latin America particularly hard. Variations in the severity of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses to it, levels of economic impact and pre-existing security environments mean that the pandemic’s economic, political and security consequences will vary from country to country. This report examines the main security implications of the pandemic, potential scenarios in the short-to-medium term and associated indicators that risk managers should monitor and plan for, as the region transitions into a phase of ‘new normal’ towards the resumption of activities and business operations.

The second half of 2020 represents a busy electoral period in Africa, which has only been further complicated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Whether militancy, perceived unconstitutional candidacies or increased authoritarianism, countries will face additional challenges during this electoral cycle. This report will take a closer look at four case studies, discussing the main vulnerabilities each country is exposed to and exploring some of the possible scenarios in the months to come.

As COVID-19-related restrictions are eased globally, protest movements have picked up steam. Post-election protests in Belarus, anti-restriction protests in Germany, protests in Hong Kong (China SAR), socio-economic protests in Pakistan, student-led anti-government protests in Thailand and anti-police brutality protests in the US will continue in September. Several important elections are occurring this month, including a presidential election in Cote d’Ivoire, gubernatorial elections in Nigeria and a regional election in Papua New Guinea, and Lebanon is trying to form a new government. Additionally, militancy and crime are a growing issue in Mozambique, Niger and Mexico.

Protests and related unrest are likely in several countries this month, with such events motivated by longstanding political and socio-economic issues, as well as dissatisfaction with governments’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, regional insurgencies in Cameroon and Nigeria wage on, while crime problems in Mexico persist despite the imposition of pandemic-related restrictions. In the US, the looming intensification of the Atlantic hurricane season will pose further challenges amid ongoing protests, while demonstrators in Mali continue to demand the president’s departure. Gatherings can also be expected in Russia ahead of September elections.

Central Asia and China share historical and cultural connections and have fostered close economic cooperation in recent years as part of China’s 'Belt and Road Initiative'. However, reality on the ground suggests that despite government involvement in many Chinese projects, Chinese businesses and nationals in Central Asian countries face security risks stemming from social unrest, crime and militancy – especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This Insight Report looks at these specific risks and provides appropriate recommendations.

The 2020 Belarusian presidential campaign has elicited an unusually high level of public interest, which has also manifested in anti-government unrest. In an unexpected turn of events, incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko, standing for his sixth-consecutive term in office, will be challenged by Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya, an opposition candidate with no political experience standing in for her imprisoned husband. While we do not expect the electoral cycle to yield developments liable to significantly alter the security environment, in-country staff should be briefed on the specific risks during this sensitive period and exercise caution around the release of results.

The strategic importance of oil in the Nigerian economy makes the country vulnerable to international oil price volatility. This report analyses how the combination of the 2020 oil and an economic recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic has both direct and indirect implications on the security environment. The current fiscal crisis will impact the government’s ability to tackle rising civil discontent and its capacity to fund its security apparatus to effectively fight militancy and crime.

The protest campaign that developed in the wake of the 25 May killing of an African-American man by the police in Minneapolis (Minnesota state) is the longest to grip the US in decades. Demonstrations will continue in waves in the coming months, due to factors such as a highly politicised climate ahead of the November presidential elections, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the potential for further incidents of actual or perceived police brutality. This Insight Report outlines the persistent underlying risks associated with demonstrations, forecasts protest dynamics through November and provides recommendations for security professionals to navigate the related challenges.

Despite the relaxation of COVID-19-related restrictions under the so-called 'New Normal' guidelines, public grievances over the economic downturn and the handling of the crisis will continue to trigger protests in the coming months. Meanwhile, the spread of deliberate misinformation and xenophobia remain a key concern in a country with a history of communal conflict. This Insight Report explores various security challenges in Indonesia as the country looks to cushion the impact of the pandemic. The report also informs security managers of the issues to consider while developing security plans for their staff and provide guidance to monitor the indicators of deterioration in the security environment.

Heightened tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will persist over the coming weeks, particularly as Ethiopia proceeds to fill the reservoir by mid-July. This Insight Report analyses the origins of the dispute and possible outcomes of the ongoing multilateral negotiations. It offers guidance for managers, including clearly identifiable escalatory triggers. While a direct military conflict between the three countries is unlikely, tensions will boil over into heated diplomatic rhetoric, cross-border skirmishes and allegations of cyber-attacks over the coming months.

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an increase in workers' grievances, with near-daily protests taking place across the country. The intensity of protests is likely to increase as the government struggles to revive the economy amid a global downturn. Opposition political parties will also attempt to exploit public grievances to their advantage, while student activism – which was a key driver of unrest in the pre-pandemic period – will pick up once educational institutions reopen. Amid ongoing grievances, there are concerns that extremist groups will use the economic downturn and increased exposure to social media to drive recruitment. This Insight Report looks at how the pandemic may impact social unrest, political situation and terrorism in Bangladesh in the coming months. It also offers guidance to managers on how to prepare and notable escalatory triggers to monitor.

Countries around the world are now beginning to consider life after COVID-19. Governments are beginning to ease restrictions, but some protesters are demanding accountability for poor government responses. Protests will increase in frequency and number, with the governments of Mali, Brazil and Sri Lanka facing pressure from mass discontent. Hong Kong will likely experience further protests against influence from mainland China, while that same country will have a tricky road ahead in terms of dealing with its subcontinental neighbour India in the wake of a deadly border dispute. Finally, the tensions on the Korean peninsula will continue after bellicose rhetoric gripped the area in recent weeks.

Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s confirmation in early May ended more than five months of political deadlock in Iraq. However, he faces a diverse assortment of old and rapidly emerging challenges – including a divisive political landscape, the COVID-19 pandemic, low global oil prices, anti-government protests, increased activity by the extremist Islamic State group and heightened US-Iran tensions – which threaten to derail his platform. This Insight Report examines these challenges in greater detail and offers an assessment of how they will impact the political and security landscape in the months ahead. It also offers guidance for managers on how to prepare and notable escalatory triggers to monitor.

Southern Africa’s socio-economic realities have prompted questions around the region’s ability to effectively fight the COVID-19 pandemic while balancing concerns around people’s livelihoods. In recent weeks, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa have begun to loosen related restrictions in a bid to revive their economies, while other countries have yet to announce their plans for de-escalation. However, the gradual easing of pandemic-related restrictions is expected to have an impact on patterns of crime and social unrest. This Insight Report looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic and responses to it have affected local environments, and offers information on what to expect once restrictions are eased.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led many West African countries to implement restrictive measures on international and domestic travel. Such measures proved to be economically untenable for many, prompting the authorities to ease their domestic restrictions. However, many governments have not communicated their strategies regarding phased recoveries and the lifting of restrictions on international travel, thereby complicating any efforts to plan for the resumption of operations and travel in the region. This Insight Report examines the factors motivating the easing and renewal of restrictions, key considerations for organisations and potential scenarios around the re-opening of borders.

A nationwide vote on the constitutional amendments will take place on 25 June-1 July. The changes are expected to be approved, despite an inclusion of a controversial provision that would allow President Vladimir Putin to stand in the next two presidential elections. Although the opposition has been divided, some groups have indicated plans to organise protests ahead of the vote. This Insight Report looks into the risk of social unrest in the period preceding and following the vote, as well as provides relevant escalatory triggers and recommendations for security managers.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 5 August, after being postponed twice because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Sri Lanka People's Freedom Alliance (SLPFA) led by Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa is expected to win. While some controversial decisions by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa's administration have contributed to ongoing political and communal tensions, the Rajapaksa brothers remain popular and will try to secure a two-third majority in parliament. This Insight Report examines the factors that would contribute to such an outcome as well as discusses the challenges that the new government will face. It further provides recommendations to security managers on being prepared for the electoral period and beyond to mitigate related risks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had serious implications for the global information exchange, and has highlighted significant vulnerabilities in terms of how information is obtained, disseminated and used. The crisis has highlighted three main challenges in the information sphere: access to information, the reliability of the material and long-term risks stemming from the political exploitation of the pandemic. This Insight Report explores the various aspects of these challenges and how companies can navigate this complicated environment in the coming months.

Countries around the world are struggling to cope with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, while also figuring out how to best resolve the crisis by easing related restrictions on travel, business and internal mobility. Most states in the US have begun lifting restrictions despite warnings from health officials about a possible second wave of infection. Meanwhile, the relaxation of mobility restrictions in nations across Africa and Europe and CIS are likely to result in increased rates of crime and renewed protest activity. These developments come as other countries across various regions face growing prospects of food shortages, severe weather, anti-government unrest, political instability and military conflict.

Crime, social unrest and xenophobia – some of the most evident second-order effects of the COVID-19 pandemic – have manifested in multiple ways across the continent in recent months. Existing socio-economic, healthcare and welfare disparities have been compounded by the strict and prolonged measures some governments have imposed to contain COVID-19. However, many governments have now started to ease some of these measures to counteract heightened social and economic pressure. This Insight Report aims to help managers evaluate the implications of possible future scenarios – from a gradual normalisation of the situation to a deterioration leading to a second wave of cases – on the continuity of their operations and safety and security of their employees (whether already in-country or intending to return).

Malawi is primed to hold a rerun of the 2019 presidential election on 23 June following the Constitutional Court’s ruling that the vote was flawed. Both the ruling party and the opposition have forged electoral alliances, meaning that the election will again be won by small margins and is likely to be similarly disputed. In the lead-up to election day, well-attended rallies will continue across the country and politically motivated violence targeting political party members is likely to escalate. This Insight Report explores the security implications of these developments and the potential impact on business operations, with recommendations for security managers to safeguard staff.

This Insight Report looks at the protest dynamic in the context of the ongoing political transition and the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the surprise resignation in March 2019 of long-time ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev, protests have increased in frequency and various opposition and activist groups have emerged. With the 2021 parliamentary elections on the horizon, the country is likely to continue to witness a higher level of protest activity, including over political issues. We provide recommendations in this report on how to manage associated risks.

COVID-19 has disrupted plans to hold elections across the Americas. In Bolivia, Chile and Haiti, however, the postponement of national elections comes after bouts of widespread anti-government unrest in each country in late 2019. This Insight Report looks at how the postponement of the elections may exacerbate previously unaddressed tensions, and how it has already contributed to a resurgence of protests amid the pandemic. It also provides advice for in-country members to mitigate risks, as well as outlines indicators to monitor for managers planning future travel in light of new electoral timelines and an increased risk of unrest.

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted stringent entry restrictions by many countries, leading to an unprecedented disruption to global travel. Its impact will be long-lasting, with air travel likely to be among the last sectors of the transport industry to benefit from the easing of restrictions. International travel will remain disrupted longer than domestic travel and locations that do ease entry restrictions may re-impose them at short notice. This Insight Report, combining the expertise of our security and medical teams, looks at challenges related to resuming international travel in the short-to-medium term and provides our recommendations for managers to best navigate this uncertain period.

A majority of countries across Europe will ease restrictions related to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in the coming months, with significant ‘reopenings’ set to take place from June. De-escalation will be at the national and subnational levels, with countries such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain likely having varied restrictions depending on region. This Insight Report provides planning considerations for managers around the easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, domestic and international travel, as well as offers advice on how to prepare for a return to operations.

The Caribbean, Central America and eastern coastal areas of the US,as well as Mexico’s pacific coast to a lesser extent, are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms every year. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin and Eastern Pacific typically runs from June to November. The 2020 season is predicted to be active, with around 14 to 18 named storms. This Insight Report delves into how travel risk managers can prepare for and respond to hurricanes, while also factoring in constraints related to ongoing resource prioritisation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Comprehensive procedures, including appropriate thresholds for the timely suspension of travel to affected locations, should be in place to ensure business continuity.

US-Iran tensions have persisted in the two years since the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and re-imposed nuclear-related sanctions against Iran. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential for a detente, a recent string of incidents across Iraq, the Gulf and the Levant region suggest both sides are sticking to their hardline positions. This Insight Report analyses US-Iran tensions in the Middle East amid COVID-19 and highlights how they are likely to unfold over the coming months. It offers guidance on updating escalation plans amid widespread mobility and logistical implications across the Middle East during the pandemic.

A series of high-profile shootings in February 2020 has fuelled concerns over gun-related violence in Thailand. Such incidents are not new to the country's security environment; the relative ease of access to firearms, a thriving black market and public perceptions of personal security contribute to the highest reported gun ownership rate in Southeast Asia. This Insight Report analyses the factors sustaining Thailand's pervasive gun culture, and how this in turn contributes to the risk of violent crime and the broader threat of militant operations in the south. It further discusses the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in exacerbating such domestic security issues, and provides recommendations for evaluating business-continuity protocols and forward-looking incident management plans.

Burundi will hold presidential, legislative and municipal elections on 20 May. Despite President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to step down, nominally ending his 14-year rule, the electoral period will likely present challenges to in-country staff, which will be compounded by any restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We currently advise against all travel to Burundi due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Those in country will need to adopt enhanced precautions throughout the electoral period, until 30 May, and to be robust in their arrangements – including availing multiple communication channels – so as to be able to minimise movement or stand fast, should the situation require it.

The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact, with nations scrambling to curb its spread while attempting to salvage their economies. Issues such as mobility restrictions, job losses, perceived inadequate government aid and stretched security force resources are fuelling concerns over a potential increase in social unrest, crime, communal tensions and militancy. While countries such as Germany, Australia and China have begun to gradually ease restrictions, others have tightened measures following a surge in cases. Amid the predominant COVID-19 narrative, countries such as Mozambique and Yemen continue to grapple with terrorism and conflict.

Unprecedented restrictions on domestic and international mobility have been imposed globally in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which also threatens to exacerbate security risks in many countries. The evolution of the pandemic and government responses to it in mainland China and other countries on a de-escalatory trajectory provide pointers as to what could come next for other affected locations; those should inform organisations' plans to manage risks to their global workforce and ensure rapid operational recovery in a new paradigm. This report prepared by our regional security teams advising companies globally analyses how factors such as culture, political considerations, security environments and state capabilities will influence the local impact – including secondary security implications – of the pandemic for your workforce. It also provides recommendations for managing decision-making, changes in mobility and navigating other operational constraints, including in the likely event of second-wave outbreaks.

The 2019-20 locust outbreak in the Horn of Africa and East Africa has been the most devastating in decades. If left unaddressed, the outbreak could last until at least June 2020, and millions of people will be in danger of food insecurity. It will exacerbate existing security risks in affected areas and introduce new risks linked to crime, civil unrest and conflict. The immediate impact will be most pronounced in rural areas, where members will face new operational challenges posed by road infrastructure damage and the limited availability of essential goods. In the medium-to-long term, the risks of communal violence, conflict and low-level criminal activity will be heightened, particularly as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads in the region. This report takes a deeper look at some of these consequences and the mitigation measures that should be in place for members travelling to or operating in the region when travel becomes possible again.

COVID-19 is now officially a pandemic. Countries around the world are imposing stringent entry and internal restrictions; the differing approach to strategy is starkest in the Americas. We take a look at what to expect, not only in terms of restrictions but also some of the knock-on effects such as increases in civil unrest and crime. The celebration of Ramadan in the Asia-Pacific region will be strongly affected, and a key constitutional vote has been postponed in Russia. COVID-19 will worsen the already-precarious situation in East Africa, and also Sudan where the prime minister has just escaped assassination.

Unidentified gunmen believed to belong to a group calling itself the Renamo Military Junta (JMR) have carried out at least 25 attacks on passenger buses, security force convoys and cargo trucks in central Sofala and Manica provinces since August 2019. The attacks peaked in November 2019, and have greatly reduced since late December 2019, when the government instituted mandatory military escorts for cars travelling along the EN1 highway, which had been disproportionately affected by the incidents. This Insight Report outlines the rise of the JMR, provides information on its attacks to date and gives recommendations for travellers and managers considering travel in the affected area.

Travel restrictions related to COVID-19 (formerly 2019-novel coronavirus ‘2019-nCoV’ disease) are affecting an increasing number of locations outside mainland China. This Monthly Security Forecast looks at this situation, which is evolving rapidly. We also examine the likelihood of further demonstrations in Hong Kong, where hardline protesters may continue to employ violent and disruptive tactics to sustain momentum of the wider protest movement. In Indonesia, protests over the controversial ‘omnibus bill’ on job creation can be expected to continue this month. In Chile, a resurgence in anti-government protests, led by various youth groups, is expected in March, ahead of the April constitutional referendum. Over in the Middle East, tensions between Turkey and the Russian-backed Syrian government have increased significantly over the last month, with the number of Turkish casualties in Idlib governorate rising. In Africa, general elections are expected in Mali on 29 March, and localised violence is expected in central and northern regions during the electoral cycle.

Guinea will hold both legislative elections and a constitutional referendum on 1 March. Protests by the opposition National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC) will likely persist ahead of the polls, as groups try to disrupt proceedings. Acts of rioting and vandalism, as well as targeted attacks between rival party supporters and the security forces pose incidental risks to travellers. This Insight Report provides an overview of relevant escalation triggers to monitor around the polls, as well as our advice for managers to ensure the safety of their staff.

The ADF (Allied Democratic Forces) is one of a number of armed groups contributing to the longstanding instability in eastern Congo (DRC). However, since mid-2019 it has been responsible for an increased number of attacks – even while being more determinedly pursued by the military. Although the ADF, which originated in neighbouring Uganda, has often presented itself as Islamist, this is largely a tactic to portray itself as more significant and attract additional recruits. Still, its presence complicates an already challenging operating environment in North and South Kivu, especially given the current Ebola crisis, local suspicion of Ebola responders, and protests calling for the local authorities and UN peacekeepers to do more to ensure stability. Organisations planning to operate in the region should consider a wide range of physical security and other measures outlined in this report's recommendations section.

The outbreak of the 2019-Novel Coronavirus looms large this month, throwing travel plans within and to China into disarray. This Monthly Security Forecast looks at the situation in the country, and efforts by various governments to contain the spread of the virus. We also examine the likelihood of further protests in Hong Kong, where the outbreak has further exacerbated tensions, as well as in Guinea and Russia amid proposed constitutional amendments. In Haiti and South Sudan, a unity government remains a distant reality due to entrenched positions by various stakeholders. Over in the Middle East, the US and Iran have managed to avoid full-scale hostilities following the killing of an Iranian general; nonetheless, the threat of an escalation is ever-present.

Tensions have somewhat defused in the Middle East following the US’ assassination of head of Iran’s Quds Force Major General Qassem Soleimani and Iran’s responding airstrikes in Iraq. However, Iran and Iran-backed groups will increasingly seek to target US diplomatic and military interests as part of a longer-term strategy aimed at driving US forces from the region, especially in Iraq and Syria. The US military can also be expected to carry out further strikes against military installations and pro-Iran groups in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, in Syria. Although actions by both parties will be designed to avoid broader military conflict, the risk of miscalculation will persist.

The new year begins as the old one ended, with protests roiling several countries and cities. India is among the latest to have seen a major wave of demonstrations – in this instance over a citizenship law. Hongkongers, Haitians and Georgians are planning to keep up their campaigns, while Tunisia prepares for the gatherings over socio-economic grievances that often greet the start of a year. Rallies across the Sahel region have objected to both the presence of French counter-terrorism troops and the continued use of a colonial-era currency. Meanwhile, after heavy rains that damaged infrastructure and crops, Kenya is expecting a spike in cattle rustling-related violence and banditry in northern counties as the dry season arrives. Security is expected to remain heightened in the militant-afflicted Philippines region of Mindanao, despite the end of martial law there. In Libya, increased foreign support for both sides involved in the battle for the capital Tripoli has raised fears of escalation.

This global Insight Report looks at the main security issues and trends to watch in 2020, as well as key dates to factor into planning. It identifies those issues for which early preparations can be made and highlights those countries or regions that could require additional precautions.

The controversial general election and the fall of Evo Morales had led security conditions in Bolivia to deteriorate. Protests are a common feature in Bolivia. However, the period of violent unrest which lasted for weeks after the disputed 20 October election and Morales’ resignation on 10 November has had the most severe impact on the country in recent years, leaving many to wonder about Bolivia’s future. This report provides analysis on key aspects of the protests that have taken place and the obstacles that could impede a return to stability in the country. It also seeks to provide actionable outlook and advice for those planning travel to the country in the coming months.

Despite being at the legal forefront of LGTB rights in the recent past, Brazil’s presidential poll in October 2018 saw the openly homophobic Jair Bolsonaro elected to office. Since his inauguration in January this year, Bolsonaro has attempted to enact policies impinging on LGTB rights and continued to normalise hate-fuelled rhetoric, emboldening those who share his beliefs. This Insight Report examines how this is contributing to concerns over increased violence targeting members of the LGBT community. LGBT travellers are advised to maintain a low profile, especially outside more cosmopolitan urban areas, and exercise caution, as their sexual orientation may increase their risk of being targeted.

Protests in Hong Kong have continued for the seventh month with tactics becoming increasingly disruptive during periods of escalation. Despite the overwhelming victory of the pro-democracy camp in the recent Hong Kong district council elections, a stalemate continues as the key demands of the protesters remain unaddressed, particularly an independent inquiry into police conduct. This has resulted in a phase of unpredictability in which the fate of the protest movement will depend on the government’s response. This Insight report looks into the evolution of the protesters' tactics, potential scenarios in the medium-to-long term and what security managers can do to prepare.

A protest campaign, known as the 'hirak' or 'movement', persists across northern cities in Algeria demanding democratic reforms and a legitimate break with the past. Long-delayed presidential elections are set to take place on 12 December with a possible second round later in the month, increasing tensions and the risk of violence. This Insight Report outlines possible scenarios and key triggers to monitor, as well as the steps security managers and their staff should take now to be prepared in the coming weeks.

Sustained protests continue across several countries and territories. In this Monthly Security Forecast, we return to the civil unrest in Hong Kong, Chile and Bolivia. Will the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement's local election gains have any impact on protests? Can Chilean reforms satisfy demonstrators? Will supporters of the ousted Bolivian president again blockade the country's roads? Whatever the case, those planning travel to these destinations should be prepared for disruption. The same is true in the nation of Georgia where electoral law has fuelled large rallies. In Gambia, a presidential term limit looks likely to do the same, while weeks of demonstrations have already been engulfing Lebanon and Iraq. Meanwhile, Mozambique is wrestling with other difficulties: Islamist attacks in the gas-rich north and rebel attacks on vehicles in central provinces. Finally, we revisit post-election Sri Lanka to examine the effect that two returning strongmen could have on already high communal tensions.

Ten years after the start of the armed Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria, the security situation in the Lake Chad basin (the border area between Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon) shows no signs of improvement. Faced with other domestic and regional challenges, the governments involved have only managed to minimise the magnitude of the conflict and maintain a modicum of regional stability. Despite significant security force deployments, the conflict's protracted nature and the increased capabilities of jihadist groups to carry out large-scale attacks and assert control over territory is increasingly hampering secure access to the region for humanitarian organisations and international companies. This Insight Report examines the dynamics of the evolving militant threat and offers advice to mitigate associated risks.

Following the victory of the New Democracy party in July parliamentary elections, the Greek government has increased efforts to disband anarchist groups, particularly in Athens. This has raised the spectre of a fresh campaign of urban violence in the coming months. The situation has further been exacerbated by planned business-friendly economic reforms, which will be used as a rallying point by radical groups. This Insight Report provides an overview of the current risks linked to anarchist violence and assesses its impact on the travel security environment in the short-to-medium term. It provides managers with relevant triggers to monitor as part of operational planning.

It has been one year since the first Yellow Vests movement protests in semi-urban areas outside of the capital Paris. The movement has seen months of decline in support and participation. While this anniversary is likely to reinvigorate the movement, with increased participation rates expected during protests in November and December, it is yet to be seen how the movement will adapt to an increasing number of challenges and how it will ensure its survival in the long term. This Insight Report examines the past, present and prospects of the Yellow Vests and offers advice to mitigate associated risks.

Presidential elections will be held in Sri Lanka on 16 November amid heightened national security concerns and increased nationalist and anti-Muslim rhetoric in the Sinhalese Buddhist-majority country. The polls will be closely contested, with a potential need for a second round to determine the winner; the divisive contender Gotabaya Rajapaksa is likely to win. This Insight Report assesses the impact of the election results on the country’s security environment and provides recommendations for security managers to better prepare for various implications.

The recent upsurge in global protests has caught the attention of the mainstream media. This Monthly Security Forecast also examines the swift and unexpected outbreak of unrest in Chile, the street opposition greeting the announcement of the Bolivian president's re-election, demonstrations over a potential third term for Guinea's leader and rallies in Ukraine over a controversial peace deal. Alongside this, we return to sustained protests in Hong Kong and Haiti, while a popular uprising in Lebanon and an outcry in the Spanish region of Catalonia over the fate of pro-independence leaders feature in our regular On Watch sections. Elections covered this month include those in Sri Lanka, Nigeria and Tanzania. Finally, we consider any potential ramifications in Turkey for the country's military operations in northern Syria.

In 2017 and 2018, late-season wildfires accounted for some of the costliest, deadliest and most destructive fires in California history. Various factors indicate that the trend of destructive fires will continue in the years to come. This report highlights the risks and impact to staff and operations, as well as provides guidance for managers on how to mitigate the risks associated with this natural hazard.

The Monthly Security Forecast for October 2019 looks at the deteriorating security situation in northern Burkina Faso amid a steady increase in militancy and simmering ethnic tensions; we also assess the implications of the 20 October general elections in Bolivia. In Haiti, ongoing fuel shortages, straitened economic conditions and a political scandal continue to cause widespread violent protests. Equally, disruptive and often unruly anti-establishment protests in Hong Kong show no sign of abating, despite government concessions. The new Greek government's focus on domestic security has led to frequent security operations, which in turn have prompted protests and raised concerns about a renewed campaign of anarchist attacks. In Georgia, demonstrations against the government and perceived Russian interference are likely to persist. Finally, an anti-government campaign on social media has gained significant traction in Egypt; while a tough response from the authorities has deterred any major unrest, related small protests may continue.

Mozambique will hold general elections on 15 October – the first since ruling party Frelimo and former armed opposition group Renamo inked a peace deal in August. As in prior years, the campaign period will likely see isolated violent incidents and unrest, which will be mainly localised in rural areas. This report outlines the main risks that members in Mozambique will face during the election period, scenarios for the campaign and election results, and mitigation measures to employ if travelling to the country into October.

Haiti has been racked by protests over issues related to the PetroCaribe scandal and general dissatisfaction with the government of President Jovenel Moise. Protests have been significant, with days-long violent protests, roadblocks, arson, property damage and targeting of high-profile businesses and hotels. The situation has been further exacerbated by the release of a report by Haiti’s Superior Court of Auditors and Administrative Disputes that implicated the president in massive corruption. Travellers should prepare for very significant protest activity, as transportation may be severely curtailed or even non-existent during major demonstrations.

This Monthly Security Forecast looks at the persistence of xenophobic violence in South Africa despite government efforts to defuse tensions, while in Chad an upsurge in communal unrest has prompted the imposition of a state of emergency in three provinces. Elsewhere, the struggle between Venezuela's rival presidents shows no sign of abating, and demonstrators in Hong Kong have broadened their demands as protests originally triggered by a controversial extradition bill continue. Recent fighting in Myanmar's embattled Shan state is the worst for some time and is likely to result in the imposition of movement restrictions, as the legal troubles of two high-profile politicians in Kyrgyzstan look set to prompt further unruly demonstrations. Finally, we examine the potential for Tunisia's forthcoming presidential election to aggravate fault lines within the country's secularist parties.

An opposition protest campaign over local elections on 8 September has surprised some Russia watchers with its energy and resilience. Fuelled initially by the exclusion of candidates and later by outrage over a security crackdown, demonstrations have caused significant disruption, especially in the capital Moscow. While travel to Russia can continue during the electoral period, those in the country should be aware of the incidental risks faced by anyone in the vicinity of gatherings. Particular caution should be exercised on polling day, and developments closely monitored around the release of the results in the days and weeks after the elections.

Despite the suspension of a controversial bill that would enable extraditions to mainland China, protest momentum in Hong Kong remains unabated. Protests have evolved beyond weekends rallies, periodically including included industrial action and disruption to public transport on some weekdays. The situation is still fluid and it remains to be seen if the protest movement can – or will be permitted to – sustain its scale and intensity in the longer term. While an eventual loss of momentum and potential compromise are both plausible scenarios, further escalation is likely in the next three months. This Insight Reports provides key indicators to monitor and outlines the steps managers and their staff can take to mitigate associated risks.

The Monthly Security Forecast for August 2019 looks at the implications of unsuccessful attempts in Nigeria to end communal violence and at the impact of the Malawian Constitutional Court’s impending ruling on the legality of recent election results. In Burundi, a crackdown on free speech has angered the opposition while in Gabon, the poor health of the President Ali Bongo Ondimba has triggered political uncertainty. Meanwhile, in Puerto Rico, large popular protests will likely continue despite the forced resignation of Governor Ricardo Rosselló. We also analyse the potential fallout from the presidential election run-off in Guatemala amid sustained anti-corruption protests. Elsewhere, in Hong Kong, the anti-extradition bill opposition campaign is showing signs of transforming into a wider anti-government protest movement. In Georgia, protests against perceived Russian interference and the government may force early parliamentary elections, while in Turkey, preparations for a military incursion into northern Syria may further heighten tensions with the United States.

No other country in South America is plagued by cargo theft more than Brazil, where nearly 22,000 related incidents were reported in 2018 alone. Widespread corruption, low wages and a stagnant economy have only further exacerbated the problem, notably in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states. President Jair Bolsonaro's administration has responded with additional security force deployments and relaxed gun regulations, which have gone some ways to reducingcargo theft in the short-term. This Insight Report assesses the impact of cargo theft and the government’s response on security and business operations in Brazil. It also provides key indicators to monitor and outlines the steps managers and their staff can take to mitigate associated risks.

The government on 24 June designated the RTGS dollar (‘Zimbabwe dollar’) as the single legal currency, banning the US dollar's use in the country. It remains unclear how the government plans to implement this new decree, as the use of alternative currencies is rampant and confidence in the RTGS dollar is extremely low. The move comes amid nationwide power outages of more than 15 hours a day, bringing many businesses to a standstill. Water rationing is also in effect in many urban centres. Economic and political pressures, combined with the daily challenges of living with limited electricity and water, are likely to spark protests in the coming months if the situation is not addressed. This report outlines credible scenarios for the short- and medium-term, explaining why further unrest is likely in the country and discussing the possibility for regime change – whether by political or military means.

In July’s Monthly Security Forecast we analyse the travel security implications of the failed ‘coup’ in Amhara state in Ethiopia and look at how the collapse of peace initiatives in Cameroon has led to a resurgence of the rebellion in Anglophone regions in the north of the country. We also investigate the corruption scandal in Senegal involving the president’s brother that has sparked civil unrest. In the Americas, we examine the reasons and ramifications behind a third month of anti-government protests in Honduras. The popular protests in Hong Kong over a controversial extradition bill that have repeatedly brought hundreds of thousands of people onto the streets show no sign of abating. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the constitutional court has finally declared incumbent president Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo the victor after opposition legal challenges to the April election result. As a result, protests are likely to subside, though still persist at a local level. Over in Ukraine, 13 parties will contest a snap parliamentary election on 21 July in a campaign that may be marred by localised political unrest. Finally, we look at the implications of the ongoing tensions in the Gulf between Iran, the US and the US’ regional allies and whether this will lead to further regional conflict.

As Mauritania heads towards presidential elections on 22 June, tensions persist between the ruling party and opposition groups. Despite concerns over a lack of transparency and fraud in favour of the government-backed candidate, the opposition has failed to unite behind a single candidate. This Insight Report outlines the potential scenarios ahead of the presidential poll and following the announcement of results, provides triggers and key dates to monitor, and outlines security recommendations for managers and their staff to mitigate associated risks.

Despite repeated failed attempts to force President Nicolás Maduro out of office, the Venezuelan opposition, led by Juan Guaidó, remains an intractable challenge to governing authorities. Coupled with an economic crisis and lengthy nationwide power outages, the face-off between Maduro and Guaidó has greatly exacerbated tensions and triggered repeated rounds of protests and state repression. This Insight Report assesses the impact of the political crisis on the security environment in Venezuela, provides key indicators to monitor and outlines the steps managers and their staff can take to mitigate associated risks.

June 2019's Monthly Security Forecast examines the impact of tensions between the US and Iran for those travelling and working in the Middle East. Recent developments have not changed our overall advice. However, we have set out a list of indicators to monitor, and recommend that escalation plans are regularly updated. In Ethiopia, we discuss how the relaxation of decades of authoritarian rule has also unfortunately paved the way for increased communal violence, which could pose incidental travel risks. Upcoming elections in Togo and Guatemala, as well as recent votes in Indonesia and Thailand, are likely to mean continued demonstrations and associated disruption in those countries. We look ahead to the first LGBT pride week in the Georgian capital Tbilisi – where against a backdrop of conservative social attitudes, religious and other groups have threatened counter-demonstrations. Finally, we revisit protests in Algeria, where activists are calling for presidential elections to be delayed again until more former regime officials are removed.

The Caribbean, Central America and eastern coastal areas of the US are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms every year. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin and Eastern Pacific typically runs from June through November. Storm activity during the 2019 season is predicted to be near average, with around nine to 15 named storms, including four to eight hurricanes. This Insight Report discusses how travel risk managers can prepare for and respond to hurricanes. Comprehensive procedures should be in place to ensure business continuity; this should also include appropriate thresholds for the timely suspension of travel to affected locations.

Egypt in April 2019 held a referendum on controversial constitutional amendments that passed with an overwhelming majority. The changes could potentially see President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi in office until 2030, expanding the powers of his position, and deepening the role of the military in civilian affairs. This Insight Report explores how the amendments will affect the overall political and security situation, as well as how it may affect the country’s travel security environment.

The Easter Sunday attacks in Sri Lanka marked the most significant act of terrorism to impact the Asia Pacific region in recent memory, and the first in Sri Lanka since the end of the civil war in 2009. The speed with which the hitherto little known terror group, National Thowheeth Jama'ath, was able to transform from conducting petty vandalism to complex, simultaneous suicide bombings, highlighted a previously underestimated threat from radical Islamic militancy in the country. A significant follow up attack remains unlikely; however, as this Insight Report will discuss, government crackdowns, local reprisals and social unrest will continue to shape the risk environment in the coming weeks and months.

By the end of 2019, nearly 5.75m Venezuelans will have migrated abroad, the overwhelming majority spread throughout Latin America. The profound implications of this exodus on the regional political and security environment are discussed in this Insight Report. Migrants find their host countries to be increasingly resentful, hostile and often overtly discriminatory. Nationalist and far-right politicians have exploited the crisis and find receptive audiences for their anti-migrant messages. Even if there is a quick, peaceful resolution to Venezuela’s political crisis, the effects of the migration crisis will be acutely felt for several years, with residual impacts to all travellers in the region.

The extremist Islamic State (IS) group continues to pose a significant threat worldwide, despite its major territorial losses in Iraq and Syria. The 21 April bombings in Sri Lanka demonstrate IS's operational reach and 'offensive spirit', and reinforce the importance of Asia as a recruiting and operating theatre for the group. This Insight Report looks into the factors that make Sri Lanka and other previously overlooked Asian countries attractive targets. It also explores how further complex IS attacks might take shape via low-profile extremist Islamist groups that hitherto had no public affiliation to, or association with, IS.

Guanajuato state, an important industrial hub in central Mexico, has seen a significant increase in violent crime linked to fuel theft by organised crime groups. In 2018, Guanajuato had one of the country’s highest homicide rates. This Insight Report analyses how the battle over fuel, involving both organised crime groups and security forces, has resulted in elevated levels of crime and increased risks for travellers in the acutely affected southern region of the state known as the ‘Guanajuato Triangle’. Security managers will need to implement extensive precautions for travel to this region and closely follow criminal developments and security force response to shape risk management policies.

Despite a peace agreement and ceasefire signed in 2018, the rival parties of South Sudan will struggle to implement an effective and long-lasting peace. The permanent return – scheduled for 12 May – of former vice-president and opposition leader Riek Machar, and whether forces loyal to him will accept the new agreement, will define the success or failure of the truce. Lessons learned from the July 2016 crisis have informed our analysis, including the potential for violence to affect the capital in a worst-case scenario during Machar’s return. This Insight Report outlines likely scenarios for the agreement going forward and provides practical advice for those operating in, or considering travel to, the capital Juba during this transitional period.

May 2019 is a busy period for elections across the world. Voters continue to got to the polls in India phased general elections - the biggest in the world - while votes in the Philippines will negotiate the continued threat of militancy as they got to the polls on 13 May in the country's midterm elections. Meanwhile both sides have claimed victory as vote counting continues in Indonesia following the election there last month, and the threat of low-level unrest hangs over Malawi's general and local elections that will take place on 21 May. Away from the ballot box, anti-government protests continue in Serbia and activists have returned to the streets in Honduras and Nicaragua to again demonstrate against their respective presidents. Finally, Sudan attempts to navigate a new political landscape following the removal in a coup on 11 April of long-time president, Omar al-Bashir.

Chinese businesses operating in Africa face specific risks from unrest that can cause operational or reputational damage, especially when they attract attention from local or international media. The risks posed by violent crime, social unrest and terrorism are particularly relevant in many African countries where Chinese businesses operate. This report explains the major security threats for Chinese travellers and expatriates in Africa, evaluates the existing security support available to them and suggests specific measures to mitigate such risks.

International SOS and Control Risks recorded more than 1,000 protests between May 2018 and March 2019 in South Africa - around 90 protests on average per month. The statistics support our assessment that South Africa experiences high levels of unrest, driven by a lack of access to essential services and limited employment opportunities, among other socio-economic grievances. These have evolved as determining factors of protests over the reporting period. This Insight Report analyses these trends ahead of national and provincial elections scheduled for 8 May and provides indicators to security managers to mitigate associated risks.

General elections in India will be held in seven phases from 11 April to 19 May, with legislative assembly elections being held simultaneously in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha (Orissa) and Sikkim states. The results will be declared on 23 May. The polls will be contested mainly by three major coalitions: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, the Indian National Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the Mahagathbandhan comprising several key regional parties. This Insight Report explores the key risks during this period, issues to monitor and locations likely to be affected. Based on this assessment, the report outlines measures security managers and their staff should take to be prepared for any developments during the election period.

The elections on 17 April will be the first time in which the presidential and legislative elections take place on the same day. Religion, a sensitive topic in Muslim-majority Indonesia, has been a major theme of campaigns, given the rising prominence of conservative religious groups. The incumbent presidential candidate Joko Widodo has approached the issue by appointing an influential Muslim cleric as his running mate. Meanwhile, opposition candidate Prabowo Subianto's has been cultivating the support of Islamic groups who in 2016-2017 led a series of large scale protests against a former political ally of the president. While major unrest linked to the elections is not expected, low-level clashes between rival supporters are possible, particularly during rallies, as campaign rhetoric heats up. In this regard, the authorities have identified 15 provinces with higher likelihood of unrest, during the election period.

Power in several forms dominates this Monthly Security Forecast – from the destructive force of Cyclone Idai that brought disaster to Mozambique and neighbouring countries to the electricity blackouts that have plagued both crisis-hit Venezuela and politically stable South Africa recently. There is also the political power that those running for office in India, Indonesia and Benin hope to gain or be returned to, in elections this month that will inevitably cause some disruption for travellers. In Algeria, people power has been another force in evidence. Weeks of mass demonstrations have brought the capital to a standstill and convinced the ailing president not to run for a fifth term. Demonstrators there have now turned their attention to 'le pouvoir' ('the power', this time meaning the entire ruling elite.)

This Insight Report looks into the upcoming general elections on 3 April – the first to be held in the country since the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI) ended in 2017. Isolated incidents of violence are possible, though a widespread deterioration in the security situation is unlikely. However, due to the country’s history of conflict, including election-related unrest, members should defer non-essential travel to the Solomon Islands on election day. Those in-country should minimise movement and avoid election-related events. Organisations should have contingency plans in place.

Widespread anti-government protests will continue across Algeria despite the postponement of presidential elections originally set to take place in April. While the government of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has announced a host of concessions in an attempt to solve the political crisis, uncertainty and the risk of unrest remains. This Insight Report highlights key indicators to monitor and outlines measures security managers and their staff should take now to be prepared for all possible scenarios in the coming months.

An ongoing turf war between organised crime groups has turned Cancun, Mexico’s most important tourist destination, into one of the world’s most violent cities. This Insight Report looks into the increase in violent crime in the city beyond usual trouble spots, as well as security measures imposed by the government in response. These measures, including the deployment of 600 federal troops and the inauguration of a military base north of the city, are unlikely to curb crime in the long term. Security managers will need to closely to follow criminal developments and security force response in the city to shape risk management policies.

Burkina Faso faces an increasing threat posed by Islamist militancy. While attacks continue to primarily affect northern provinces, the threat has spread to eastern provinces, particularly since 2018. Weak security force capacity continues to prevent the authorities from effectively countering the threat and militant groups have remained resilient in the face of continued operations against them. A further expansion of militant activity westward along the southern borders with Benin, Togo and Ghana is likely. This Insight Report examines the dynamics of the evolving militant threat in Burkina Faso and offers advice to mitigate associated risks.

Ukraine’s scheduled presidential election will be held on 31 March and with up a quarter of the electorate undecided, a run-off is expected on 21 April. Despite a minimal impact to the security environment, there is a heightened risk of unrest in the lead up to polls and after the results are announced. This Insight Report highlights key dates and indicators to monitor during this period. It provides security managers with guidance on key triggers to watch for and their potential impact for the travel security environment.

Normal travel can continue around general elections in Thailand on 24 March, though the most sensitive period will be around the release of results. Triggers for unrest and political violence remain. These include another delay to the polls or the perception that the military is interfering with the electoral process. Opposition parties would likely hold large, disruptive protests in response to such developments. This Insight Report helps managers monitor developments until the new government is sworn in. They should ensure in-country staff are aware of flashpoint dates, locations and how to respond. Managers should also consider a review of physical and procedural security at all offices, sites and staff accommodation, especially in Bangkok, as most popular protest venues are in or near commercial areas.

Big elections are on the horizon in Asia. In this Monthly Security Forecast we look ahead to the polls due on 24 March to restore Thailand to democracy after five years of military government. After brief controversy over a royal would-be prime ministerial candidacy, preparations seem to be back on track. Shortly afterwards, 190m people in Indonesia are expected to turn out in April for the country's first same-day presidential and parliamentary elections. Voters also go to the polls this month in Guinea-Bissau and Turkey. In the Americas, two rival leaders try to influence events in Venezuela, while Haiti's president has found himself unable to stem further socio-economic unrest. In Europe, demonstrations have also taken place in Albania over perceived government corruption. In Africa, we examine militant rivalry in Somalia and rebel raids in northern Chad.

This Insight Report looks into the anti-crime policies of new president Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (widely known as 'AMLO'). Lopez Obrador has announced two broad priorities: changes to the security forces and to government response to cartels. Security managers should monitor related developments, as a short-term increase in violent crime is likely as cartels and other criminal groups retaliate against new security initiatives, including the new administration's focus on depriving cartels of revenue, supplies and recruits.

Nigeria will hold presidential elections on 16 February and gubernatorial elections on 2 March. Incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is running against Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP). Localised violence and unrest will be a part of all phases of the election period, particularly in closely contested states or where local conflicts endure. This Insight Report highlights key dates and indicators to monitor during the election campaign. It provides security managers guidance on how to prepare for the most likely scenario and other contingencies.

More than five years after its last major attack in the Kenyan capital, the extremist militant group al-Shabab besieged a luxury hotel complex in Nairobi in January. In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the pattern of the group’s activities in Kenya, which is often limited to border regions. Venezuela has also been thrust into the spotlight with the emergence of a galvanising opposition leader. We spell out what those on essential journeys to the country need to know; facing a months-long wave of economic protests, Sudan is in similar turmoil. Looking ahead, Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria, and one of Asia’s most visited destinations, Thailand, go to the polls soon, with all the preparations and gatherings that will mean. Finally, we look beyond the headlines, examining rising gang violence in El Salvador, a watchful opposition in Moldova and tensions in Zambia.

The first round of the presidential election in Senegal will take place on 24 February. Candidates include incumbent president and favourite, Macky Sall, who is seeking a second term. The election will take place in a context marked by slightly increased political tension, after the two main opposition leaders, former cabinet minister Karim Wade and the former mayor of the capital Dakar, Khalifa Sall, have been disqualified from running due to prior criminal convictions. This Insight Report examines the travel and security implications for travellers and international assignees and gives mitigation measures to managers to maintain preparedness during the election campaign.

Amid an ongoing economic crisis that has caused shortages of hard currency, food and fuel throughout the country, President Emmerson Mnangagwa on 12 January announced a 150% increase in the price of fuel. Two days later, residents of the capital Harare and Bulawayo (Bulawayo province) took to the streets, blocking main roads and setting fire to cars. The security forces responded with live ammunition, rubber bullets and tear gas. According to human rights organisations, at least eight people were killed. This Insight Report helps you prepare for potential further outbreaks of unrest, including the identificationof key indicators of renewed unrest.

An ongoing anti-government protest campaign since April 2018 and a violent pro-government crackdown have engendered significant unrest and instability across Nicaragua. The authorities have increasingly employed paramilitary forces in an effort to crack down on dissent. This Insight Report looks at how protests and paramilitary operations will remain a concern in Nicaragua, the associated risks to travellers and expatriates visiting the country and provides advice to travel security managers on mitigating those risks.

In January's Monthly Security Forecast, we assess whether Guinea's increasingly authoritarian leader, Alpha Conde, will use a possible legislative election delay as an opportunity to also postpone the presidential election. We also look at the potential for continued political unrest in Brazil as opponents and supporters of the country's new president, Jair Bolsonaro, vow to stage protests after his inauguration on 1 January. In Bangladesh, violence and allegations of vote-rigging will taint the aftermath of the 30 December legislative election. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Jordanians continue to protest against an unpopular tax reforms, while a spike in shootings and car-ramming attacks in the West Bank - together with the Israeli security response - poses persistent incidental risks. Finally, we assess some of the the challenges that lie ahead in implementing the UN-brokered ceasefire agreement in Yemen.

This global Insight Report looks at the main security issues and trends that could affect your travel risk management planning in 2019. It highlights regional trends and flashpoints, focusing primarily on potential escalations for which early preparations can be made.

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) pose one of the main risks to travellers and expatriates in South Africa, primarily due to poor driving standards, variable road infrastructure and human factors such as drink driving, fatigue and mobile phone use. The risk tends to increase during the December and New Year festive period, when road traffic volumes increase and factors contributing to accidents are exacerbated. This Insight Report looks at key statistics that inform the observed increase in fatal RTAs and provides recommendations to better prepare individuals to mitigate the risks of conducting road travel during the period.

Originally scheduled for November 2016, elections on 23 December will decide who will replace long-time president Joseph Kabila. Tensions have intensified since electoral campaigning began. Ten people have been killed at related rallies, with the police repeatedly using live ammunition to disperse opposition supporters. Further protests before, on and after the polling date are likely as the opposition challenges the first-time use of electronic voting machines and the disqualification of leading opposition candidates. This Insight Report provides an update on key issues to monitor and outlines measures managers should take to prepare, including for a possible worst-case scenario.

Since late 2017, an Islamist militant group calling itself Ahlul-Sunnah wal Jama'a (al-Sunnah) has carried out more than 60 attacks on rural villages and security force outposts and convoys, beheading or shooting nearly 100 people and destroying buildings in villages across northern Cabo Delgado province. The group’s motivations remain unclear, although some members of the group have allegedly called for the establishment of Sharia in the area. Al-Sunnah poses a continuing threat and has increased its capabilities by raiding security force outposts and convoys for weapons and ammunition. In addition, its decentralised structure, based on multiple, semi-autonomous cells, has complicated counter-terrorism efforts. This Insight Report gives an overview of the current situation in Cabo Delgado and recommendations to members in the area to effectively mitigate against the risks posed by the group.

Russia and Ukraine have been involved in a maritime dispute in the waters around the Crimean peninsula since mid-2014. This escalated into a direct confrontation on 25 November when Russian naval forces prevented Ukrainian vessels from passing through the Kerch strait to the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian parliament’s subsequent decision to impose martial law until 26 December in ten provinces has been followed by some travel restrictions. This Insight Report looks at the impact of these developments on the travel security environment in Ukraine, provides key indicators to monitor, and outlines steps managers and their staff can take to mitigate associated risks.

General elections are due in Bangladesh on 30 December. Elections in the country are frequently marred by high levels of social unrest, especially because of the intense rivalry between the Awami League (AL) led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Khaleda Zia. While the campaign so far has been subdued, there have been sporadic incidents of violence. This Insight Report examines the key risks around the election period and outlines the various measures and steps that managers and their staff can take to mitigate associated risks.

Despite government concessions, nationwide demonstrations and roadblocks by the 'Yellow Vest' ('Gilets Jaunes') movement are expected to continue in December, with protests occurring weekly on Saturdays in Paris. clashes, vandalism and damage to property will continue to be a risk in urban centres as radical far-right and far-left elements have co-opted the popularity of the movement. These have also inspired other groups, including students and public sector unions, to stage protests over related socio-economic grievances. This Insight Report assess the impact of increased protests on the security environment in France, provides key indicators to monitor and outlines the steps managers and their staff can take to mitigate associated risks.

Yellow-jacketed 'gilets jaunes' demonstrators have been causing major disruption in France, while extended delays at the US-Mexico border have been reported following the arrival of a migrant caravan. In this Monthly Security Forecast, we offer advice for travellers in the light of both issues, and cover a wide range of topics from political turmoil in Sri Lanka, continued communal violence in Ethiopia, a controversial referendum in Togo and hopes of getting opposing sides in the Yemen conflict to the negotiating table. In Congo (DRC), a presidential election delayed for two years is finally set to proceed. While tensions have eased over the issue – lessening the chance of previously seen high levels of unrest – travellers and managers should monitor developments closely. Protests are also possible around polls in Bangladesh.

President-elect Jair Bolsonaro's rise from relatively unknown congressman to the leader of Latin America's largest country is linked to three crises - political corruption, the economic downturn and rising crime. Bolsonaro's campaign did not make his agenda entirely explicit, but is likely to involve the reduction of the state's role in the economy and a tough approach to fighting crime. This Insight Report explains why members in Brazil should anticipate demonstrations for and against Bolsonaro. Isolated incidents of political violence are likely to continue, but we do not expect them to present a wider threat to in-country staff. Staff, particularly security managers, should closely monitor how Bolsonaro's policies - and the popular response they provoke - shape the security environment and respond with mitigation measures.

Active shooter incidents remain a threat to staff and business operations throughout the US, as recent attacks at corporate headquarters and other office locations have shown. Numerous commonalities in the planning, publicising and duration of active shooter attacks have resulted in actionable trends that security managers can use to reduce the likelihood and severity of a potential incident.

The first round of the presidential election will take place in Madagascar on 7 November. Campaigning will end on 6 November, and 36 candidates are due to contest the poll, including incumbent Hery Rajaonarimampianina and predecessors Marc Ravalomanana (2002-09) and Andry Rajoelina (2009-14). The election will be closely fought and no candidates is likely to secure an outright victory. A second round of voting on 19 December is therefore probable. Political tensions will accompany the election; however the campaign will likely pass off peacefully. The most sensitive periods will be the days following the election and the emergence of the results, as well as around any second round of voting. This Insight Report analyses the risks to travellers and expatriates visiting the country during the election and provides advice to travel security managers on mitigating those risks.

Papua New Guinea hopes that hosting world leaders for this month's Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit will put it in the spotlight as a travel and investment destination. However, there has been anger and a protest strike over the money spent on some of the preparations; visitors also need to remain vigilant about the country's high crime risks. Meanwhile, in Guatemala citizens are taking to the streets over government moves to shut down corruption investigations. Other demonstrations are possible around elections in Bahrain and Guinea-Bissau – whether or not the latter go ahead – and state legislative polls in areas of India may prompt a spike in activity by Maoist 'Naxalite' rebels. In South Sudan, the first steps towards implementing a new peace accord have renewed hope after prolonged civil conflict, but the deal is unlikely to rapidly change the travel security environment.

The APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting (AELM), often referred to as the APEC summit, will be held on 12-18 November in the capital Port Moresby. Around 10,000 participants, including many high-profile delegates are expected to attend the largest international event in the country's history. Despite heightened security measures, significant logistical challenges and security threats are a concern during the period in Papua New Guinea, a HIGH travel risk-rated environment. This Insight Report examines these risks and logistical practicalities, and offers risk mitigation measures to help facilitate preparedness during the AELM period.

One would-be contender tried to run for office from prison; another presidential candidate was stabbed on the campaign trail. These are just two of the dramatic incidents leading up to October’s election in Brazil. In this Monthly Security Forecast, we look at the mood on the ground, and what it means for visitors to the country. Brazil’s is just one of several upcoming polls, and we also assess the impact on travellers of voting in Gabon, Mozambique, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and EXTREME travel risk-rated Afghanistan. Indonesia is already preparing for April 2019 elections. In Libya, those in the capital Tripoli are hoping a recent spate of crippling inter-militia clashes has finally concluded.

A single-round presidential election will take place in Cameroon on 7 October 2018. Candidates include incumbent President Paul Biya, who could extend his 36-year rule with a seventh term. The election will take place in a context marked by insecurity in Northwest and Southwest regions due to an ongoing insurgency waged by Anglophone separatists against Cameroon's Francophone-majority government. The election will pass off broadly peacefully across Francophone regions, despite likely opposition protests in major cities; however, the electoral cycle will drive further insecurity and violence in Northwest and Southwest. This Insight Report analyses the threats and mitigation measures to take during the election cycle, and gives mitigation measures that travel risk managers should take to maintain preparedness during this period, including in the restive Northwest and Southwest.

This Insight Briefing is intended to help members prepare for travel to Bali for the IMF and World Bank Group (WBG) annual meetings, which will take place on 12-14 October. Natural disasters remain a key concern for visitors, given recent earthquakes on nearby Lombok island and increased volcanic activity at Mount Agung late last year. We will discuss risk mitigation measures in the event of disasters and associated disruption. Security measures to be implemented by the local authorities for the meetings will also be highlighted in the briefing.

While socio-economic-related protests are common in Iraq's southern governorates, this summer has witnessed an uptick in unrest. Grievances related to poor service provision and a lack of jobs have driven people to the streets, leading to clashes with the security forces and periodic disruption to transport infrastructure. In the coming weeks and months, the frequency and scale of these demonstrations will largely be driven by the outcome of the current government formation process, public health issuesrelated to contaminated water and the response of the security forces to any renewed unrest.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Maldives on 23 September, with the second round taking place within 21 days if no candidate wins a clear majority in the first round. Sporadic protests are likely throughout the election cycle in September-October, particularly by opposition parties. Flashpoint dates include the election day, run-off polls if they are held, and the announcement of results. The capital Male (including central areas), and to a lesser extent Addu city, are potential flashpoints of political unrest. Even small demonstrations can cause significant disruption due to the potential for protests to quickly spread across the island cities. This Insight Report analysis the likelihood of a deterioration in the security environment during the election cycle and mitigation measures that travel risk managers should take to maintain preparedness during this period.

Since 19 April, anti-government protests and a violent pro-government crackdown have upended Nicaragua’s fragile stability and resulted in hundreds of deaths. Pro-government paramilitaries are accused of serious human rights violations and have led to international condemnation of President Daniel Ortega’s administration. Due to the rate of incidental violence, the criminalisation of anti-government dissent, and the stalled peace process, non-essential travel to Nicaragua should be deferred until at least the end of 2018.

It has been a season of ‘carpet crossing’ – or political party defections – in Nigeria ahead of 2019’s elections; state and federal parliamentary buildings have been briefly seized and other unrest generated by discontent over the issue. In September’s Monthly Security Forecast, we look at how travellers to the country should react, with defections likely to continue. In Uganda, an outcry over the treatment of a popular opposition politician has seen roads blocked by disruptive protests. In Venezuela, amid a major currency devaluation and mass exodus, social unrest continues. In other sections, we assess the possibility of unrest around elections in the Maldives and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. As the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia votes in a referendum to change its name, an unhappy nationalist minority may make its voice heard on the streets – both in the country and neighbouring Greece.

With rapprochement underway between Ethiopia and Eritrea, we analyse the travel security implications of the thawing of two decades of conflict and mutual suspicion. Meanwhile protests over a 25% rise in fuel prices continue to impact Guinea; several demonstrations have turned violent and further action should be expected in the future. In Nicaragua there is still no end in sight to the ongoing political crisis as President Daniel Ortega digs in further in the face of widespread unrest, while in Pakistan, the opposition cries foul over Imran Khan's contentious election victory. Lastly, protests in Sudan over the price of basic services and commodities is fuelling popular discontent.

A presidential election is scheduled in Mali for 29 July, with a second round planned for 12 August if - as is likely - no candidate wins an outright first-round majority. Having visited Mali in May, our security team assesses that clashes between supporters of rival political parties are possible during the electoral cycle. The most sensitive periods are likely to be around the release of the first-round results and any second-round of voting. Some opposition demonstrations have met with a forcible response from the authorities and any government crackdown will increase the risk of unrest. This is most likely in the capital Bamako and other urban centres. The existing, underlying threat of terrorist attack will also increase during the election. This Insight Report analyses the threats and mitigation measures to take during the election period.

Campaigning is under way for landmark elections on 30 July in Zimbabwe, the first without long-standing former leader Robert Mugabe. While an explosion at a ruling ZANU-PF party rally in Bulawayo in June is likely to remain an isolated incident, this Monthly Security Forecast examines the developments that travel risk managers should nonetheless monitor during the electoral period. The forecast also looks ahead to polls in Pakistan and Cambodia, and discusses the ramifications of a partial vote recount in Iraq and associated delays in forming a new government. Those travelling to Comoros should avoid protests that have erupted over a controversial referendum. Sustained unrest in Nicaragua means we continue to recommend deferring non-essential travel to that country.

Simmering discontent in the Anglophone (English-speaking) regions of Northwest and Southwest over perceived marginalisation by the Francophone (French-speaking) majority in Cameroon has resurfaced since 2016 in the form of protests and militant violence. Demands by Anglophone protesters and militant groups range from devolution to complete secession. This Insight Report assesses that related activism and violence are likely to increase in the coming months ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections in September and October; it also provides advice to managers to help mitigate travel risks to the country.

In the wake of a significant loss of territory in both Iraq and Syria, the extremist Islamic State group (IS) is changing tactics as it attempts to remain influential in the region. Meanwhile, al-Qaida remains a credible concern, especially in Syria. Members in countries bordering Iraq and Syria, especially Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, should be aware of the risks posed by one-off attacks by former members of Islamist extremist groups who have returned to these countries, and should ensure that they have suitable escalation and communications plans in place in the event of an attack.

Pakistan will hold its next general elections on 25 July, with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Pakistan People's Party and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf being the main contesting parties. The days leading up to the polls will see large campaign rallies, while the post-election period will be marred by political uncertainty and disruptive protests. This Insight report discusses the various risks, including the potential for increased terrorism and violence, and the triggers that signal deterioration in the security environment. The report also provides recommendations on how to mitigate these risks and prepare for them.

Central America, the Caribbean, and Atlantic and Gulf coastal areas of the US are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms each year. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin and Eastern Pacific typically begins in June and runs until the end of November, peaking between mid-August and early October.This Insight Report discusses how travel risk managers can prepare for and respond to hurricanes. A comprehensive business-continuity procedure should be in place; there should also be appropriate thresholds for the timely suspension of travel to affected locations. Furthermore, a structure for communicating these decision points and actions throughout the organisation is essential.

High rates of crime - both petty and violent - pose the most significant risk to business travellers in South Africa. Travellers are particularly vulnerable during road journeys, to direct vehicle-related crime such as carjacking and 'follow-home' attacks, as well as to incidental risks posed by taxi violence. This Insight Report examines these types of vehicle crime and offers advice to short-term visitors, expats and regular travellers on minimising associated risks. A tip sheet listing safety precautions while self-driving or riding a taxi is also provided.

Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on 24 June, the first since the April 2017 referendum that changed the country's system of government from a parliamentary to presidential system. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to win, a diverse set of opposition candidates means that a runoff election on 8 July is likely and that the parliamentary election will be more competitive than initially anticipated. This Insight Report explores the issues affecting the election and how various results - including a divided government - may affect the country's travel security environment in the coming months.

Communication is an integral part of any travel risk management programme, both during regular business travel and during an emergency situation. As a part of pre-departure planning, communications systems, including the physical device being used, should be assessed against three broad factors: availability, reliability and legality. This is particularly important in HIGH or EXTREME risk locations or rural areas. This Insight Report outlines the factors to consider when thinking about communications from a risk perspective, providing examples and advice for travel risk managers and travellers.

Russia will host the 2018 FIFA World Cup from 14 June to 15 July. As travellers to the country will be exposed to a range of risks during the tournament, it is imperative that they are fully briefed on the risks, appropriate mitigation measures and how to respond to various incidents. This Insight report discusses all these and provides recommendations for both security managers and travellers.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we look at the risks posed by violent anti-government protests in Nicaragua, as well as the outbreak of the Ebola virus disease in Congo (DRC)’s Equateur province. We also discuss simmering tensions over foreign-owned commercial projects in Ethiopia’s Oromia region, and the situation on the Korean peninsula amid uncertainty over the planned US-North Korea summit on 12 June. Finally, we look ahead to elections in Turkey (24 June) and Pakistan (25 July), where protests and politically motivated attacks are likely to increase in the run-up to the polls.

The conflict between nomadic herdsmen and settled local farmers in central states has escalated in recent years and is gradually spreading southward due to increasing desertification, insecurity and the loss of grazing land. In the absence of an adequate government response, the clashes are likely to further increase in frequency, intensity and geographical scope. While they are unlikely to target foreign interests or travellers they can pose incidental risks, which are examined in this Insight Report, along with specific advice for security managers to mitigate them.

The continuing conflict between the Saudi Arabia-led coalition and Houthi rebels has led to a degradation in the aviation security environment in both Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Aircraft crew and operations continue to face risks from Houthi missile attacks targeting Saudi Arabian airports, potential damage from intercepted missile debris, and shootdown arising from misidentification by the Saudi-led coalition or Houthi forces. This Insight Report contextualises the various threats to aviation operations in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and provides an outlook as well as recommendations for aviation managers to mitigate associated risks.

In this Monthly Security Forecast we look at the potential for further political violence surrounding the constitutional referendum in Burundi on 17 May and tensions in Venezuela ahead of the presidential election on 20 May. We also analyse the need to monitor events before Malaysia goes to the polls in general elections on 9 May, while protests and low-level violence are expected as Thailand commemorates the fourth anniversary of the military coup on 22 May. Meanwhile, local elections in Tunisia take place on 6 May amid continued economic and political stagnation while the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem 14 May looks set to trigger protests in the Palestinian Territories as well as Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

The 2018 general elections in Malaysia will be the country's most controversial poll since gaining independence in 1957. The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, led by incumbent Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has been accused of financial improprieties, is defending its six-decade reign against the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, led by former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad. Polls in the capital Kuala Lumpur and several states, including the opposition stronghold Penang state, will be the most hotly contested. While serious unrest is not expected, travellers in Malaysia during the electoral cycle should plan their itineraries to minimise time spent near campaign events and demonstrations.

The US, UK and France on 14 April carried out a series of missile strikes in response to an alleged chemical weapons attack by the Syrian government. Despite tense rhetoric, the strikes were limited in scope, and communication between Western and Russian officials helped prevent a direct confrontation. This Insight Report analyses the impact of the strikes on the trajectory of the Syrian conflict, and the potential for continued tensions on multiple fronts to escalate beyond Syria’s borders.

Militancy in the Maghreb countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia has been influenced by the recent deterioration in the security environment of neighbouring Libya and the Sahel region. The emergence of the extremist Islamic State group has put pressure on entrenched militant groups, notably in the high numbers of nationals from Morocco and Tunisia active in conflicts overseas. Border and interior areas have witnessed rampant smuggling, which has driven renewed links between criminal and militant groups. This Insight Report discusses the current risks for travellers in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia and provides a short-to-medium term outlook. It offers location-specific advice for security managers looking to support their mobile workforce in mitigating associated risks.

There has been a steady deterioriation in the security environment of Rio de Janeiro state amid the increasing boldness of and infighting between criminal organisations. The police have been unable to mitigate this threat because of corruption, lack of adequate training and budget cuts. As a result, President Michel Temer handed full responsibility for security in the state to the military on 16 February. The intervention, ratified by congress, will be in effect until at least December. However, it is unlikely that the military deployment will lead to a long-term reduction in violent crime in Rio de Janeiro city.

The murder of a campaigning councillor in Rio de Janiero city has provoked demonstrations across major Brazilian cities, and in this Monthly Security Forecast we provide advice on avoiding trouble spots. In the French overseas department of Mayotte, tensions over socio-economic conditions have again boiled over into street unrest, and travellers may need to navigate blockades on major routes. The forecast looks ahead to elections in Lebanon in May and revisits the Maldives after the lifting of a state of emergency. The Commonwealth Games in Australia, Coptic Easter in Egypt and New Year festivals in Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand are among our 'On Watch' issues.

In 2018, rebel activity will continue to pose significant risks for aircraft operating in Congo (DRC), as underscored by recent attacks targeting a Congolese government helicopter gunship and a UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO base. Although the bulk of rebel activity is concentrated in the east of the country, any flights within Congo (DRC)’s airspace should be appropriately prepared for the possibility of encountering rebel activity. This Insight Report discusses how recent developments highlight the capabilities of rebel forces operating within Congo (DRC), and how flight operators can successfully mitigate the risks involved in operating to the country’s complex security environment.

The 2018 Commonwealth Games will be held in the Queensland city of Gold Coast on 4-15 April, with events also being held in Cairns, Townsville and the state capital Brisbane. Some 1m spectators are expected to attend what will be the largest sporting event in Australia this decade, causing significant travel disruption and creating crime and terrorism risks. This Insight Report analyses the multiple plans put in place for the event, including Protective Security Zones and changes to public transport and road networks, combined with the strain on accommodation and other services. It will also looks at how these will necessitate careful planning for business operations and travel to the host cities during the Games.

This Insight Report looks at the key factors affecting Colombia's travel security environment in 2018. These include the continued activity of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, crime in urban areas, the ongoing operations of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group and the upcoming presidential and congressional elections. Despite a peace agreement between FARC and the government, the activities of splinter groups - including banditry and kidnapping - will remain a concern for the foreseeable future. In addition, the activities of Grupos Armados Organizados (organised crime groups) and security operations to combat them will continue to be a significant concern in HIGH risk areas. Ahead of congressional and presidential elections in March and May, respectively, tensions are likely to escalate amid mooted candidacies by controversial figures, such as former FARC leader Rodrigo Londono Echeverri (popularly known as Timochenko).

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we look at the travel implications of a new six-month state of emergency in Ethiopia and the prospects for unrest around the 7 March elections in Sierra Leone. There remains a need for careful journey management in Colombia despite a new ceasefire by leftist guerrillas, while a state of emergency remains in force in the Maldives, where tensions persist. Impending elections have prompted incidents of localised unrest in Italy and a potential increase in protests and bomb hoaxes in Russia, while security will be particularly tight for the presidential poll in Egypt.

General elections are scheduled for 7 March in Sierra Leone, with a potential run-off for the presidential vote, if necessary, due around two weeks later. The stakes are particularly high as incumbent President Ernest Bai Koroma has reached the maximum term limit while none of the contenders is likely to achieve the 55% threshold required to win the first round outright. This Insight Report looks at potential drivers of deterioration and travel security issues during the election period. It also provides insight to travellers and security managers on how to prepare to mitigate related risks.

The Lebanese Shia Muslim movement Hizbullah's involvement in the Syrian war has enabled the group to defend its weapons supply chain and expand its arsenal. Amid an increasingly entrenched position in Syria, Hizbullah - along with Iranian and other Iranian-backed forces - poses a key threat to Israel. Tensions along Israel's northern border with both Lebanon and Syria increase the potential for a miscalculation by one side to quickly escalate. Although war between Hizbullah and Israel in Lebanon remains unlikely in the medium-term, the impact that such a conflict would have in Lebanon in particular means that security managers should maintain updated evacuation and business continuity plans.

After three years of drought, the surface dams supplying Cape Town (Western Cape province) with municipal drinking water are at dangerously low levels. It is estimated that, at current rates of rainfall and water consumption, the city will be forced to cut off water to households and businesses, including hotels, on 11 May. Water thereafter will only be available from centralised distribution points. This is being referred to as 'Day Zero'. The drought has also affected municipalities in Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape provinces. This Insight Report analyses the likely impact of the water crisis and the ways in which travellers and travel managers should be prepared. It also identifies drivers and indicators of deterioration to inform decision-making on inbound travel and internal relocation.

Since 2015, at least 83 ballistic missiles have been fired into Saudi Arabia by the Yemen-based Zaydi Houthi movement. Although Saudi Arabian air defences remain capable of intercepting most missiles, the threat remains a concern for travellers and civil aviation operators. In this Insight Briefing, TSMS and Medaire clients can join our experts in discussing the latest information on the Houthi group's ballistic missile capabilities and how travel managers and civil aviation operators can best manage the associated risks.

Togo has been experiencing a political crisis since August 2017, with the opposition calling for the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbe through numerous large - sometimes violent - demonstrations. While we assess that a national destabilisation is unlikely in the foreseeable future, this Insight Report examines the travel security implications of any associated unrest. It also provides recommendations to managers and expatriates on how to manage related risks.

For the February 2018 Monthly Security Forecast, members of our team visited Tunisia to assess how recent anti-austerity protests have been affecting the travel security environment there. They identified key flashpoints and carried out numerous hotel audits, updating our lists of suitable accommodation for clients. Elsewhere, we have examined the situation around February elections in Nepal, Guinea and Nigeria's Plateau state, as well as a snap presidential poll to be held in Venezuela before the end of April. Additionally, the forecast covers travel security in Turkey following the country's recent launch of military operations in northern Syria. Click also to see the issues we have 'on watch', including in Brazil, Greece and Jordan.

Following a visit to Libya by our security team in October 2017, we have reduced from EXTREME to HIGH the travel risk rating for the capital Tripoli and Misrata (Misrata district). We now assess that essential travel to Tripoli and Misrata is possible with a specific pre-travel threat assessment, as part of a comprehensive and fully co-ordinated security programme. This Insight Report highlights the key threats in Tripoli and Misrata with advice on security support capability, road travel, accommodation, international air travel and other practicalities. It also details the main escalation points to monitor and the necessary measures to take in response to a deteriorating security situation

A series of fatal attacks since October 2017 on villages and government and security force targets in Cabo Delgado province has caused considerable concern, particularly due to increasing foreign investment in nearby offshore gas fields. This Insight Report analyses the recent security incidents in the region and contextualises the evolving militant threat in northern Mozambique.

Our Insight analytical products, available exclusively to subscribers of our Travel Security Management Service (TSMS), examine trends, themes or events likely to impact the travel security environment in the short-to-medium term and provide recommendations on the planning required. They aim to be actionable and enable timely preparation for periods or circumstances in which business travellers and expatriates may face specific challenges.

Tensions remain high across Israel and the Palestinian Territories since the 6 December 2017 announcement by US president Donald Trump recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and plans to move the US embassy there from its current location in Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district). This Insight Report provides an overview of the practical travel security implications of the US decision in the short-to-medium term, not only for members travelling in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, but the wider region. It also addresses potential triggers for escalation and de-escalation to monitor.

The 2018 Winter Olympics will be held on 9-25 February in Pyeongchang and neighbouring cities of Gangneung and Jeongseon (all Gangwon province), followed by the Paralympic Games on 9-18 March. Around 250,000 people are expected to travel to Gangwon for the event. South Korea is a LOW travel risk environment, where the primary travel risks include overland travel delays due to heavy snowfall, petty and opportunistic crimes and tensions on the Korean peninsula. This Insight Report will examine such risks and various logistical practicalities to help facilitate a more prepared, knowledgeable and safer Olympic experience.

This issue of the Monthly Security Forecast looks at the ongoing protests in Burundi over proposed constitutional changes to be voted on in a referendum in February and the persistent ethnic tensions between the Amhara and Oromo communities in Ethiopia. It also analyses the continuing political unrest in Honduras triggered by the controversial election in December of Juan Orlando Hernandez as well as the implication of the decision by the Philippines parliament to extend martial law in Mindanao island. The issue also assess the ongoing implications in the Middle East generated by the 6 December decision by US president Donald Trump to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital. In this context, a visit to Israel and Egypt in mid-January by US vice-president Mike Pence is likely to trigger further protests.

This global Insight Report looks at the main security issues and trends that might affect your travel risk management programme in 2018. Following an overview of global issues, it looks at regional trends and flashpoints, focusing primarily on potential escalations for which early preparations can be made, such as the adoption of additional personal safety precautions, or travel restrictions. Issues of note include: crime – including violent crime, particularly in Latin America – and the continuing threat from Islamist terrorism in many parts of the world. Natural hazards also continue to pose challenges, highlighted by the unusually severe impact of storms in the Caribbean and North America. While such weather systems can usually be detected and evaluated with some accuracy, sudden unpredictable events, including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, will require flexibility and reinforce the need to be able to quickly locate and account for staff.

The 1 October shooting in Las Vegas (Nevada state), during which 58 people were killed and more than 500 injured, highlights the persistent risk posed to bystanders by active shooter events in the US. According to the Department of Homeland Security, active shooter incidents in the US have increased in recent years. This Insight Report will explore how such scenarios typically unfold, as well as how managers can better prepare their staff to respond.

Heightened tensions between North Korea and the US continue to drive concerns that military hostilities remain a credible possibility on the Korean Peninsula. These concerns have led to a steady stream of queries by travel and security risk managers seeking to adopt best practices in developing business continuity plans. This Insight Report seeks to answer some of the most frequently asked questions.

This Insight Report provides an aviation-focused overview of some of the challenges inherent with operating in Africa. Most flights operating to Africa are likely to fly in or around airspace over HIGH or EXTREME risk rated environments and areas that lack adequate maintenance, medical and security infrastructure. As such, in the event of an in-flight emergency, suitable diversion locations may be more than two hours flight time away. These constraints require that planners and crews be aware of the inherent risks that come with operating in Africa and necessitate incorporating detailed and flexible mitigation measures into pre-flight contingency planning.

The October 2017 mass casualty militant attack in the capital Mogadishu has again put the spotlight on Somalia's persistently complex security environment. This Insight Report analyses the current situation in Somalia's distinct regions - Federal Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland - where the respective security environments pose differing arrays of threats and risks. With the exception of Somaliland, security conditions are likely to remain complex and volatile. This will complicate travel to the country, including to urban centres such as the capital Mogadishu and Bosaso (Puntland) for the foreseeable future.

In this Monthly Security Forecast, we examine the travel security implications of Anglophone protests in Cameroon, and what may happen if the Liberian presidential election is delayed until February 2018. Opposition protests in Venezuela have decreased as the government forges ahead in elections; more polls are scheduled this month. In Nepal, some low-level violence is possible around the second round of provincial and federal elections. There is controversy over Cambodia's dissolution of the main opposition party, while protesters in Ukraine have been calling for the president's impeachment. In Saudi Arabia, a change in the travel security environment is unlikely, despite missile strike attempts from rebels in neighbouring Yemen.

The Sahel region has seen the geographical expansion of instability as a result of growing militancy since 2015, targeting previously unaffected parts of central Mali, western Niger and northern Burkina Faso. There has been an increase in hit-and-run guerrilla-style raids on security posts and official targets, as well as attacks and kidnappings targeting foreigners. Capital cities in the region are also vulnerable, with foreigners possible targets. The launch of a regional counter-terrorism force, the 'G5 Sahel', is not expected to significantly reduce related risks in the short-to-medium term. This Insight Report examines the dynamics of the growing insecurity in the Sahel and offers advice mitigating associated risks.

Uncertainty in the Catalonia region of Spain remains high following a 1 October independence referendum and subsequent unilateral declaration of independence. The Spanish government's invocation of Article 155 of the country's constitution has revoked Catalonia's autonomy, triggering fresh elections on 21 December. Social unrest and industrial action is likely to remain a fixture of Catalonia's travel security environment in the short-to-medium term. This Insight Report assesses the impact of the polls on the travel security environment in Catalonia region as well as Spain more broadly, and addresses the steps travel risk managers and their staff can take to mitigate associated risks.

Chile's general election was held on 19 November, and with no presidential candidate receiving more 50% of the vote, a runoff election between Sebastian Pinera and Alejandro Guillier will take place on 17 December. Although the first-round passed off largely peacefully, growing discontent with official corruption, a struggling economy, President Michelle Bachelet's alleged failure to keep several key campaign promises and continuing indigenous Mapuche activism are factors likely to continue driving protests in the short-to-medium term. This Insight Report contextualises the likelihood of these and other risks posed to travellers during the electoral period, and provides recommendations to travellers and security managers on mitigation.

The security environment in Afghanistan has worsened since the end of NATO combat operations in 2014. Amid a reduced international presence and persistent political instability, militant groups - namely the Taliban and the so-called Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) - have expanded their geographical reach and continue to carry out attacks on coalition targets, state and security assets and minority communities. Although Taliban and IS-K militants have reportedly carried out joint attacks in some districts, clashes between the two groups have contributed to the deteriorating security environment, and efforts to broker a ceasefire are unlikely to reduce this violence. This Insight Report provides an assessment of the current security environment and an outlook for the next 12 months, as well as the key escalation points to monitor which might mark a change in the current threat dynamics.

The Monthly Security Forecast is intended to give travel risk managers insight into our assessment of significant events and the likely changes to the travel risk outlook in the coming 30 days; the major indicators or drivers of deterioration being tracked by our regionally based security analysts; and how you can prepare, including any significant or emerging planning constraints. We will also give insight into any in-country research or planning trips we have coming up.

Road accidents are one of the leading causes of death globally, including in South and South-east Asia. An estimated 1.25m people die every year in road traffic accidents, 25% of which occur in the region. Up to 90% of road traffic fatalities take place in low- and middle-income countries. In South and South-east Asia, the countries with high rates of road traffic accidents are Thailand, Myanmar, India, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The major factors contributing to road traffic accidents include inadequate road infrastructure, poor condition of vehicles and driving standards and lax regulations and enforcement. This Insight Report looks at which countries in the region have the highest road traffic fatality incidents, and the steps travel risk managers and their staff need to take to mitigate those risks when conducting travel in South and South-east Asia.

Road-traffic accidents continue to be the most common risk affecting foreign travellers globally and across the Middle East and Africa. This risk is heightened by a range of factors including poor driving standards, variable vehicle conditions and lax road-safety laws. This Insight Report looks at the main contributing factors and associated statistics that drive road-traffic related risks and fatalities in the Middle East and Africa. It provides regional case studies and assesses the impact of technological changes on road-traffic related risks. It also includes practical advice on how travellers can minimise road-traffic related risks as well as how to manage an incident after it has occurred.

The royal cremation ceremony for Thailand's late King Bhumibol Adulyadej will be held in Bangkok on 26 October, more than a year after his passing. The late king remains highly revered in the country and the cremation is expected to draw thousands of people wishing to pay their respects. This Insight Briefing looks at the preparations for this event and how the developments fit in with our recommendations and advice for both business travellers and security managers travelling to Thailand during the royal cremation period.

Legislative and presidential elections will be held in Liberia on 10 October. Unlike previous polls, the election incumbent President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf is not able to stand and the fragmented political landscape augurs a closely contested election. While the run-up to the vote has so far remained peaceful overall, several indicators or drivers of deterioration remain of concern. This Insight Report examines what might be expected during the course of the election campaign and provides recommendations to travellers and security managers on mitigating related risks.

The Monthly Security Forecast is intended to give travel risk managers insight into our assessment of significant events and the likely changes to the travel risk outlook in the coming 30 days; the major indicators or drivers of deterioration being tracked by our regionally based security analysts; and how you can prepare, including any significant or emerging planning constraints. We will also give insight into any in-country research or planning trips we have coming up.

On 25 August, militants allegedly linked to the Islamist militant Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA; also known Harqah al Yaqin) carried out a co-ordinated attack on 30 police posts and an army base in northern Rakhine state.The attack was the immediate trigger for the ongoing security operations and fighting between Buddhist and Muslim militias in northern Rakhine. However, communal tensions and violence between the state's Rakhine Buddhist majority and Rohingya Muslim minority communities are a long-term feature of Rakhine's travel security environment. The fighting in northern Rakhine could trigger violence in other parts of Rakhine and other parts of Myanmar. Similarly, such tensions will fuel radicalisation amongst the Rohingya community, increasing the influence of Islamist extremist groups. This Insight Report assess the impact of the violence on the travel security environment in Rakhine as well as Myanmar more broadly.

The selection of an appropriate hotel is an integral part of a travel risk management programme. The importance of reviewing accommodation risks has been highlighted in recent years by several terrorist attacks on hotels. Accommodation selection must also be driven by more than cost constraints and comfort preference. The prevailing security environment at the travel destination, the profile of the traveller, the duration of the journey and risks ranging from terrorism and crime to natural disasters, are all factors requiring consideration. This Insight Report outlines the issues and factors involved in selecting suitable accommodation for business travellers and provides a risk-based approach for travel risk managers.

The Monthly Security Forecast is intended to give travel risk managers insight into our assessment of significant events and the likely changes to the travel risk outlook in the coming 30 days; the major indicators or drivers of deterioration being tracked by our regionally based security analysts; and how you can prepare, including any significant or emerging planning constraints. We will also give insight into any in-country research or planning trips we have coming up.

The ethnic Uighurs of eastern and central Asia have historic cultural, linguistic and religious ties to segments of the Turkish population, which have led to expressions of solidarity with the Uighur cause in recent years. The uptick in militant Islamist violence in Turkey since 2015, along with ongoing conflicts in neighbouring Iraq and Syria, has led to heightened scrutiny on the potential threat posed by militant Islamist Uighurs in the country. This Insight Report assesses the scale of the threat posed by Uighur militants in Turkey and the key escalation points to monitor for what might mark a change in the current threat dynamics.

The Philippines is classified as a Category A (highest priority) country on the basis of our country categorisation process. Over the next 12 months, Islamist militancy – in the form of small-scale attacks in Metro Manila and other urban centres, seaborne kidnapping raids and seizure of territory in rural areas of south-west Mindanao – will be the key driver of volatility in the Philippines.The threat from terrorism could be managed by individual actions, primarily awareness and vigilance, as well as appropriate accommodation selection. However, there are several developments that could occur in the next 12 months that would likely result in an escalation in our travel advice for the Philippines. These include: (a) the spread of fighting between the Abu Sayyaf Group-Maute Group and the security forces beyond Lanao del Sur province to other areas in south-west Mindanao; (b) increasingly frequent attacks in urban centres of Mindanao, including those outside the south-western conflict zones; and (c) regular attacks in urban centres outside Mindanao, particularly Metro Manila

The vast majority of client support provided by the Security Operations team at International SOS-Control Risks consists of preparatory briefings, education and advice. However, in some circumstances, we provide direct assistance to clients withdrawing their employees from a country in crisis. To do this effectively, we place a premium on effective forecasting to understand how, where, why and what form the next potential crisis will take. This Insight Report explains our approach to this task, analysing how we identify our priority countries or destinations and how we identify and monitor potential crises. It also looks at the steps we take to ensure we provide effective support to our clients to help maintain continuity of travel and business resilience, up to and including evacuation.

The Monthly Security Forecast is intended to give travel risk managers insight into our assessment of significant events and the likely changes to the travel risk outlook in the coming 30 days; the major indicators or drivers of deterioration being tracked by our regionally based security analysts; and how you can prepare, including any significant or emerging planning constraints. We will also give insight into any in-country research or planning trips we have coming up.

There is a clear precedent for violence during Kenyan national elections, most notably illustrated by the post-election unrest of 2007-08. More than 1,000 people were killed and thousands displaced amid inter-ethnic clashes in the wake of the announcement of results. Kenya will hold general elections on 8 August, and violence continues to be a concern, particularly following the recent chaotic party primaries. This Insight Report looks at the main drivers of instability ahead of the polls and the period directly after the results are announced, as well as what measures should be put in place to effectively mitigate any possible risks stemming from election-related unrest.

For the past decade, the increasing importance and development of technology has expanded the way criminals target foreigners in Latin America. The number of internet-connected devices in the region is expected to continue to grow by at least 21% annually, offering more technologically-adept criminals increasing numbers of potential targets. Key factors contributing to the likelihood of a traveller or business being targeted in a technology-based crime include systemic vulnerabilities in security, prominence of a group or individual's public profile and ease of accessibility to personal information online through social media sites and other platforms. This Insight Report examines this situation and its related risks in greater depth, analysing what might be expected in the coming months and years, and provide recommendations to travellers and security managers on mitigating such risks.

General elections will be held in Angola on 23 August, with the campaign period expected to commence on 23 July. Unlike previous polls, the August election will not feature incumbent president Jose Eduardo dos Santos , who has been in power since 1979 and is currently the second longest ruling leader in Africa. Despite the end of the dos Santos era, the ruling party's political hegemony and the lack of a unified opposition should ensure that the elections pass off largely peacefully. This Insight Report looks at potential travel security issues faced by travellers over the course of the election period.

The Monthly Security Forecast is intended to give travel risk managers insight into our assessment of significant events and the likely changes to the travel risk outlook in the coming 30 days; the major indicators or drivers of deterioration being tracked by our regionally based security analysts; and how you can prepare, including any significant or emerging planning constraints. We will also give insight into any in-country research or planning trips we have coming up.

Soldiers in Côte d'Ivoire led mutinies in January and May 2017, officially over the payment of bonuses. Under a January deal, the mutineers were promised bonuses of around CFA 12m; they received two CFA 5m payments with the last instalment expected in late June. Main cities affected by previous unrest included the commercial capital Abidjan (Abidjan district) and urban centres in northern and central Côte d'Ivoire. We assess that there is a low likelihood of further localised disturbances in late June, should the payments due to soldiers be delayed. Nonetheless, this Insight Report looks at potential implications of any renewed unrest for business travellers and expatriates, and provides recommendations to best prepare for such a scenario.

Since 2014, an estimated 130 Trinidadian nationals have travelled to Syria and Iraq with the aim of fighting alongside the Iraq- and Syria-based extremist Islamic State (IS) group– the highest number per capita in the Western hemisphere. Although there is no known evidence of organised Islamist militant cells in Trinidad and Tobago at this time, or of formal links between international terrorist groups and local Islamist organisations, the longer-term threat from Trinidadians returning from Middle Eastern conflict zones, combined with continuing radicalisation at the community level will represent a growing security concern for travelers in the coming months and years. This Insight Report will examine this situation and its related risks in greater depth, analysing some of the underlying causes and providing recommendations to travelers and security managers on what they might expect going forward.

The Danakil depression, in north-eastern Ethiopia, is one of the most inhospitable environments on earth. Despite its remoteness, adverse weather conditions, and logistical challenges, the region has attracted a number of mining companies seeking to exploit vast potash deposits, while the unique landscape has become an increasingly attractive tourist destination. This report is based on an April 2017 country visit to Ethiopia by an International SOS and Control Risks team member, which included a specific assessment of infrastructure and the travel security environment in Afar region.

President Rodrigo Duterte on 23 May declared martial law on Mindanao for 60 days following security operations against Islamist extremist militants in Marawi (Lanao del Sur province). The capital Manila, as well as other parts of Luzon and the Visayas region, are not subject to martial law, though they remain under the ‘state of lawless violence' that was imposed in September 2016. This Insight Briefing provides our security outlook for travel to the Philippines, particularly Mindanao; what security measures can be expected under the martial law; and how recent developments fit in with our recommendations and advice for both business travellers and security managers.

Four Russian cities – the capital Moscow, St Petersburg, Kazan (Republic of Tatarstan) and Sochi (Krasnodar krai) – will host the FIFA Confederations Cup football tournament between 17 June and 2 July. The event will attract thousands of visitors in what will be a dress rehearsal for the country's hosting of the FIFA World Cup in 2018. This Insight Report looks at the main risks faced by visitors attending the event and advises travellers and managers on how to manage them.

Women now represent nearly half of business travellers; while most safety and security concerns apply to all travellers, there are a number of unique risks for female travellers and expatriates that must be considered. According to a 2016 survey by global travelling businesswomen network Maiden Voyage, approximately 31% of female business travellers have encountered sexual harassment during a business trip. Handbag theft accounts for the second most frequent gender-related risk, followed by drink-spiking and sexual assault. Inadvertent violations of cultural norms or laws also feature among the risks that female travellers may encounter. This Insight Report aims to advise managers on how best to mitigate and manage female-specific travel risks and provides a checklist that recaps basic precautions.

Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on 5 June announced they had severed diplomatic ties and closed all land, sea and air borders with Qatar. While these developments will impact travel between the affected countries, they do not change the regional travel security environment. This insight report examines the practical implications for travellers in the region, why these measures have been taken, how Qatar has responded and the triggers for escalation and de-escalation to monitor.

Road safety remains one of the most significant risks for travellers and local nationals throughout much of the world, including Latin America and the Caribbean where it represents a more pronounced concern than in more economically developed regions such as Europe and North America. While the UK and France have respectively experienced around 2.9 and 5.1 road fatalities per 100,000 people, Latin American countries averaged around 15.8 fatalities per 100,000 in 2013, the most recent year for which collective statistics are available. This Insight Report will explore some of the underlying causes of elevated rates of traffic incidents in the region, examine representative case studies and offer recommendations to travel managers to help manage the risks posed along the region's roads.

Central America, the Caribbean and eastern parts of the United States are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms each year. Hurricane season typically begins in June and runs until the end of November, peaking between mid-August and October. This Insight Report discusses how travel risk managers can prepare for and respond to hurricanes. A comprehensive business-continuity procedure should be in place; there should also be appropriate thresholds for the timely suspension of travel to affected locations. Furthermore, a structure for communicating these decision points and actions throughout the organisation is essential.

The travel security environment in the capital Juba and elsewhere in South Sudan has evolved since a major escalation of violence in July 2016. This has left Juba as something of a security bubble within the wider country. This report, based on a recent visit, examines the current operating environment for travellers and expatriate workers in the capital, and explores how these threats can and should be mitigated. It closes by focusing on the scenarios most likely to lead to a deterioration in the security situation that could require those in-country to take additional security precautions.

The Monthly Security Forecast is intended to give travel risk managers insight into our assessment of significant events and the likely changes to the travel risk outlook in the coming 30 days; the major indicators or drivers of deterioration being tracked by our regionally based security analysts; and how you can prepare, including any significant or emerging planning constraints. We will also give insight into any in-country research or planning trips we have coming up.

This Insight Report looks at the travel and security implications of the 22 May bomb attack in Manchester. The attack underlines the continued evolution of the threat from Islamist terrorism in the UK and across Western Europe, and the targeting of an entertainment venue also highlights the wide scope of potential targets. While the incident does not alter our travel advice for the UK, it emphasises the need for vigilance in public places, particularly among large crowds.

After more than a decade, the mandate for the United Nations Stabilisation Mission (Minustah) in Haiti will end on 15 October 2017. A smaller UN operation will subsequently be established, to further develop the National Police of Haiti (PNH) and to support the government in strengthening rule of law and political institutions. The end of Minustah's mandate is not expected to lead to a serious deterioration in the country's security environment in the short-to-medium term. Nevertheless, the travel security environment remains highly challenging and, in the longer term, a substantial improvement in the security environment is unlikely. This Insight Report looks at the national police capability in the face of continuing gang violence and periodic bouts of unrest, and details key indicators of a deterioration in the travel security environment.

Papua New Guinea will hold general elections from 24 June to 8 July, with the campaign period will lasting until 15 June. The final results are scheduled to be announced 14 days after polls close (around 22 July). Campaign-related gatherings and events are expected to increase as the elections draw nearer. Any such activity is expected to be small-scale, localised and primarily focused on town squares, party offices and government buildings. There is also the potential for sporadic violence consisting of arson, vandalism and intra-tribal clashes, particularly in Highland region. Following the announcement of results, protests are likely by dissatisfied groups, particularly around national and provincial government buildings across the country. While widespread or destabilising unrest is not expected, security managers should note that there is a potential for unpredictable and sudden outbreaks of violence. Such incidents could result in movement restrictions.

The Iranian presidential election on 19 May will see the incumbent, Hassan Rouhani, face-off against five other candidates as he tries to secure a second term in office. Issues around the economy and the nuclear deal are likely to dominate the campaign. The last presidential election in 2013 passed off largely without incident, though the elections in 2009 were followed by major anti-government protests against the result. This Insight Report examines the impact of May's election on the travel security environment in Iran, profiles the frontrunners, their policy positions and the most likely election outcome. It also details trigger points that may presage a deterioration in the travel security environment.

The Monthly Security Forecast is intended to give travel risk managers insight into our assessment of significant events and the likely changes to the travel risk outlook in the coming 30 days; the major indicators or drivers of deterioration being tracked by our regionally based security analysts; and how you can prepare, including any significant or emerging planning constraints. We will also give insight into any in-country research or planning trips we have coming up.

Heightened tension on the Korean Peninsula has raised concerns that military hostilities are imminent. However, despite the heated rhetoric of recent weeks, the likelihood of war between North Korea and the US and South Korea is low. Nonetheless, there is room for miscalculation, as even the limited use of military force could trigger a rapid succession of events which would be difficult for organisations to respond to effectively. Similarly, if the North Korean regime believed that its survival was imminently threatened, the risk of a conflict would increase significantly. This Insight Report provides recommendations in the event of escalation. Security managers should be prepared to defer non-essential inbound travel at short notice and organisations should review business continuity plans, which should identify ‘stand-fast' locations with several days of supplies in case the situation prompts the closure of local airports. Plans should also include a provision for internal relocation of staff or withdrawal from South Korea at short notice.

The political environment in Libya remains fractured, and the country continues to serve as a major base of operations for transnational terrorist groups. While there are a few reasons to anticipate a substantial further deterioration of Libya's security environment in the short term, travel to the country should continue to be deferred. This Insight Report discusses why the continuance of intermittent militia clashes and schisms remains the most likely scenario for the foreseeable future, and tracks which political and security measures would have to be in place before travel risk managers could loosen their guidance and operating procedures for travel to the country.

Several high-profile attacks in March marked an end to the nearly nine-month lull in Islamist militant violence since the July 2016 attack on the Holey Artisan Bakery in the capital Dhaka. The recent incidents reinforce our assessment that militant violence will remain an important challenge to the country's travel security environment for the foreseeable future. This Insight Report assesses militant capabilities and targeting patterns and offers recommendations on transport and accommodation to mitigate associated travel risks.

This Insight Briefing discusses the travel security implications of the current election cycle in the capital Jakarta and focuses on the current movement against incumbent governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, locally known as Ahok. Islamist groups have held several large protests against Ahok, an ethnic Chinese Christian, for allegedly insulting the Koran, Islam's holy book.

Students and schoolchildren in West Africa sporadically stage protests in urban centres, which can pose significant incidental risks and disruption to business travellers. The unrest has clear triggers and follows recognisable patterns; identifying these can help security managers factor the likely consequences of protests into business travel plans. This Insight Report details the various forms this type of unrest can take and identifies likely triggers and flashpoint locations. It also provides recommendations on how to anticipate and prepare for such unrest.

Protests by nationalist groups opposed to the deployment of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea triggered several demonstrations in the country, most notably outside a South Korean-owned private business franchise. There have also been reports of Chinese-owned commercial establishments refusing to serve Korean customers, calls for a boycott of South Korean products, and official directives for travel agents to cancel tours to South Korea. Further tension between China and South Korea could incite further demonstrations or lead to an escalation in the scale of protests. Organisations should ensure that local management is trained to react to both generalised protests over THAAD as well as protests aimed specifically at their operations in the country. These exercises should be designed to test local management's ability to respond to such scenarios by creating awareness of the potential triggers that could require the activation of incident response plans, by clarifying the individual roles and responsibilities during an incident, and by rehearsing incidents.

Turkey's travel security situation has received much attention over the last 18 months. The country will continue to face a number of challenges in 2017, both domestically and internationally. ‎This Insight Briefing examines the current context and resulting outlook for the year ahead through the evolution of the travel security threats posed by terrorism, social instability and earthquakes. It concludes by focusing on how travel to the vast majority of the country remains possible with standard precautions.

Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) leader Afonso Dhlakama and President Filipe Nyusi agreed in late December to a week-long ceasefire, which was generally respected and extended by 60 days in January. The extension is due to expire on 4 March, just as the two sides are expected to resume peace negotiations. If the talks succeed and prolonged stability in the central provinces is achieved, it will likely result in a reduction of the current HIGH travel risk rating for rural areas of the central provinces to MEDIUM. However, if negotiations stall, there is a credible risk that violence will resume, thereby requiring travellers to implement enhanced security measures. This Insight Report analyses the risks and challenges surrounding the peace negotiations.

Turkmenistan, the second-richest state in Central Asia, is a challenging environment to travel in, combining arcane immigration and registration processes, unreliable communications, limited evacuation options and concerns over information security and surveillance which require specific preparation and enhanced awareness. This Insight Report, drawing on observations by our team following a recent visit to the secretive country, aims to provide an overview of the main risks and difficulties facing business travellers in Turkmenistan in order to help security managers better plan staff deployments.

This Insight Report looks at the impact on travel of ongoing political tensions revolving around President Park Geun Hye. The National Assembly in December 2016 voted to impeach the president on charges related to influence-peddling and corruption. However, the Constitutional Court of Korea is unlikely to issue a verdict on the vote by the widely anticipated date of 13 March; a final verdict must be handed down by 6 June. Large protests over the issue will continue to be the primary concern for travellers.

This Insight Report looks at some of the main issues affecting travel security in the Americas region in 2017, as well as key dates to factor into planning. Petty and violent crime will continue to represent the greatest security threat to members in the region, while political instability and popular discontent will continue to drive social unrest in parts of Latin America. There are also several key dates throughout the year that are likely to have a disruptive impact on business travel or entail travel security risks.

On 27 January, the president signed an Executive Order which, among other things, specifically dealt with issues of immigration and travel to the United States. This Insight Briefing will provide context for the law, address some of the most frequently asked questions surrounding the order, underscore its potential effects on travellers and outline some of what can be expected going forward. This briefing has been revised to reflect a judicial ruling on 3 February that placed a temporary stay on the Executive Order nationwide.

Increased drone use by Islamist militant groups is indicative of the evolution of cheap and effective tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) now available to terrorist organisations. Technological advances and falling prices have made drones increasingly available to militants for reconnaissance, propaganda development and weaponisation. Hizbullah, Islamic State (IS) and Tahrir al-Sham have all used drones in Iraq and Syria in the last 12 months. IS's drone weaponisation capabilities are among the most advanced used by a terrorist group, and the potential proliferation of their TTPs is a serious concern. Having tried and tested these methods in Iraq and Syria, they could be replicated outside the region by returning foreign fighters and extremists inspired by online propaganda. This Insight Report analyses trends in terrorist TTPs and provides recommendations for security managers to consider as part of wider corporate and travel security strategies designed to protect physical assets and personnel security.

On 27 January, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order which, among other things, specifically dealt with issues of immigration and travel to the US. This Insight Briefing will provide context for the law, address some of the most frequently asked questions surrounding the order, underscore its potential effects on travellers and outline some of what can be expected going forward.

Local elections will be held across Indonesia on 15 February. The gubernatorial election in the capital Jakarta is the most high-profile, with incumbent governor, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, known locally as ‘Ahok', running for a second term. However, he is currently under trial over blasphemy charges for allegedly insulting the Koran. Hardline Islamist groups have led several large anti-Ahok demonstrations in the capital, and further demonstrations are expected in the coming weeks, particularly on the dates of Ahok's trial. While it is currently not known when the trial will conclude, the verdict is unlikely to be announced before the results of the elections are declared. While we continue to assess that the country's overall security environment is likely to remain stable throughout the election period, travel risk managers should monitor for flashpoint events which could result in spikes in protests or potential for violence. This Insight Reports analyses the issues surrounding these events, potential triggers for protests and the likelihood of unrest.

Social attitudes and legal protections for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) communities are generally favourable across Europe and are likely to continue to improve in the medium-to-long term. However, there are still substantial variations across the continent, with Central and Eastern European countries being generally more conservative than Northern and Western Europe. In addition, differences between legislation and degrees of acceptance exist. Intolerant or – more rarely - hostile social attitudes toward LGBT groups continue to be reported even in countries where same-sex relationships are legal. In this Insight Report, we examine some of the challenges that LGBT individuals may face when travelling in Europe, as well as the precautions required to mitigate associated risks.

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte won the 9 May 2016 presidential election. Since assuming office, Duterte has adopted a tough campaign against criminal gangs and has engaged in diplomatic and rhetorical posturing against the West, in particular the United States. This Insight Report articulates the travel security implications arising from the persistent reports of drug-related killings, posturing vis-a-vis the West, as well its policies towards militant groups operating in Mindanao.

This global Insight Report looks at the main security issues and trends which might affect your travel risk management programme in the coming year. It identifies those issues for which early preparations can be made and highlights those countries or regions which could require additional precautions, or even restrictions on travel. Issues of note include: the continuing threat from Islamist terrorism in Western Europe and many other parts of the world; violent crime, particularly in Latin America; political violence and social unrest affecting wider stability, especially during contentious elections; and conflicts and insurgencies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria and Yemen. Turkey faces a complex mix of challenges, and for that reason is addressed in its own section. Natural hazards continue to pose a number of challenges; while seasonal issues such as typhoons or hurricanes allow robust preparation, sudden unpredictable events, including earthquakes, require flexibility and reinforce the need to quickly locate and account for staff. In addition, we continue to recommend comprehensive travel risk management programmes to address medical and public health risks – and their wider operational and logistic implications – as well as more mundane issues such as road safety.

Congo (DRC) is experiencing a political crisis which could meet a turning point after the mandate of President Joseph Kabila ends on 20 December. Main cities could see renewed unrest which would pose increased travel risks and we are recommending restricting travel in the short term. This Insight Briefing is aimed at helping you prepare for this period; it provides our assessment of the situation and recommendations based on our experience of previous escalations and a recent visit to the country by our team.

The ability to stand fast is an important part of any response to a deteriorating security environment or in the aftermath of a sudden or rapid-onset crisis. Depending on the circumstances, it offers a viable - and often safer - alternative to relocation or evacuation. It also marks a step in the evacuation process itself, particularly when evacuation options become compromised. Stand-fast options can be implemented in a number of different scenarios, whether in anticipation of unrest or as a reaction to an event, including foreseeable natural disasters. This Insight Report details these scenarios and what preparations are required to facilitate a stand fast posture.

The legal status and social acceptance of same-sex relationships varies greatly across Africa. Differences between legislation and degrees of social conservatism can be difficult to navigate for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) travellers and expatriates, exposing them to risks they may not have anticipated during previous or other business postings abroad. Sexual orientation and gender identity laws do not always accurately reflect social attitudes towards same-sex relationships, and hostile social attitudes and harassment of LGBT groups exist in countries where same-sex acts and relationships are legal. This Insight Report aims to help security managers factor into their travel risk management strategies nuances associated with both legislation and social attitudes towards the LGBT community at different destinations .

On 9 October 2016, in response to escalating anti-government protests - some of which targeted foreign-owned commercial assets - the Ethiopian government imposed a state of emergency. The measures associated with this have somewhat reduced the levels of violence and unrest across parts of the country, but have done little to address the underlying grievances of many of the protesters, most of whom come from the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups. This Insight Report examines the background to the unrest and the impact of this, and the state of emergency, on business travellers and expatriates. It provides recommendations to travel risk managers, giving clear escalation points to monitor in the weeks and months ahead.

This Insight Report provides an analysis of anti-narcotics aircraft shoot-down policies within Latin America and the impact on civilian air travel in the region. Incidents affecting commercial airliners over Latin America are rare, but there is a low but latent risk to chartered jets, light aircraft, private aircraft and helicopters. This report provides recommendations to business travellers, travel risk managers and aviation entities to mitigate the risks posed to air travel by aerial anti-narcotics operations across Latin America.

People who identify themselves as lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) are travelling more. There is an increasing need for LGBT employees and their managers to conduct due diligence on the countries that they are travelling to, particularly in the Asia-Pacific where a mix of liberal and conservative secular societies that practice traditional cultural values and non-secular societies inform legal status and social attitudes. This report looks closely at the implications of being a LGBT traveller in different ‘types' of societies across the APAC region. In general, LGBT travellers should maintain a low profile and avoid public expression of sexual orientation and gender identity at all times, even in societies where legal status and social attitudes are deemed favourable to same-sex relationships.

The passage of Hurricane Matthew on 4 October caused extensive flooding and infrastructure damage in south-western Haiti, particularly Grand-Anse, Sud, Sud-Est and Nippes departments. Logistical difficulties in providing humanitarian assistance have been compounded by security risks. Tensions are expected to increase further in the coming days due to growing levels of desperation among locals, and real or perceived delays in the delivery of aid. This is likely to lead to more frequent looting of aid supplies and social unrest in affected areas. This assessment looks at the situation in the south-west in the aftermath of the hurricane, and provides advice on pre-deployment preparations and additional precautions to undertake while travelling in affected locations.

This Insight Report looks at the fallout and future impact of the dramatic developments in Turkey in recent months including the July coup attempt and the military incursion into northern Syria. As a result of the post-coup crackdown, shifting militant dynamics and new political developments, this report examines why security conditions in Turkey are likely to worsen in the coming months.

The increasing political tension between the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) and the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) is ushering the country into a new period of instability. The CPP is expected to continue its efforts to weaken the opposition ahead of the commune and general elections in June 2017 and July 2018, respectively. Meanwhile, the CNRP is likely to respond by mobilising potentially disruptive demonstrations. The political situation remains fluid and there remains a heightened risk of large-scale protests and accompanying violence. While an escalation into wider unrest remains unlikely, low-level protests will persist and continue to pose mainly incidental risks to foreign business travellers, particularly in the capital Phnom Penh. This Insight Report looks at key scenarios and indicators of a potential escalation that will need to be factored into the planning of business trips to Cambodia in the short-to-medium term.

Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) travellers face significant challenges and restrictions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Attitudes hostile to LGBT individuals vary between countries according to legal and political systems, and religious and cultural norms. This report takes a closer look at the specific issues LGBT travellers face in some of the major countries in the region, namely Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Morocco and Gulf states.

Attitudes and laws toward the acceptance and rights of Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) individuals span a wide spectrum throughout the Americas region, often contrasting the progressive result of decades of increased economic and political development with entrenched social and religious norms. Although levels of social acceptance are likely to continue to generally improve in the medium-to long-term, the region experiences some of the highest rates of violence against LGBT individuals in the world and same-sex acts remain illegal in eleven countries. This Insight Report examines some of the challenges LGBT travellers may face in the Americas and provides recommendations for managing and mitigating such risks.

A growing political crisis surrounding the timetable of the next presidential election looks set to intensify towards the end of 2016, with incumbent Joseph Kabila constitutionally due to step down on 20 December after completing a second mandate and no elections planned until mid-July 2017 at the earliest. As some opposition groups, including the main Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), jointly reject a prolongation of Kabila's tenure, they are expected to mobilise supporters in the coming months; this could result in disruption and unrest in some major cities, particularly in the capital Kinshasa, Lubumbashi (Haut-Katanga province), Goma (North Kivu province), Bukavu (South Kivu province), Kisangani (Tshopo province) and Mbuji-Mayi (Kasai Oriental province). This Insight Report looks at key scenarios and indicators of a potential escalation that will need to be factored into the planning of business trips to Congo (DRC) in the short-to-medium term.

In this Insight Briefing, we provide our assessment of the deadly bombing at the Roxas Night Market on 2 September in Davao City (Mindanao). We closely examine the aftermath of the incident, the government's response and the impact on travellers. Finally, we discuss how this incident fits within our travel security outlook for the Philippines, and set out our recommendations for travellers and security managers.

Attacks claimed or inspired by Islamist militants in Western Europe have experienced a marked increase in 2016. Recent developments in France and Germany indicate that the number of groups and individuals motivated to carry out attacks is increasing; the impact of those incidents is also rising, regardless of sophistication. The threat posed by small groups or individuals acting without close operational control or support from transnational organisations, but inspired or motivated by them, is increasing and is probably the most important recent tactical shift. This Insight Report analyses the attacks that have so far taken place in Western Europe in 2016 and provides advice and recommendations to travellers and managers on how to mitigate the risks posed by the emerging new trends in Islamist militant activity.

At the August municipal elections, support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) fell to below 60% for the first time since 1994, while the party lost its majority in some major cities. This Insight Report examines the potential impact of the outcome on the travel security environment, and how travel risk managers should prepare and respond.

The renewed outbreak of fighting on 7-11 July in the capital Juba between elements of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA, the South Sudanese army) and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO) has set the country back substantially in terms of its progress towards stability, greatly complicating the travel security environment. There are many factors and unresolved issues that will continue to drive instability, and many scenarios under which travel security conditions in South Sudan could deteriorate dramatically and rapidly. This Insight Report provides a detailed outlook of travel security conditions in the country and advice for how organisations and travel risk managers can mitigate the risks to employees and operations in the country by being prepared to manage a wide range of credible eventualities.

Attacks claimed or inspired by Islamist militants in Western Europe have experienced a marked increase in 2016. Recent developments in France and Germany indicate that the number of groups and individuals motivated to carry out attacks is increasing; the impact of those incidents is also rising, regardless of sophistication. The threat posed by small groups or individuals acting without close operational control or support from transnational organisations, but inspired or motivated by them, is increasing and is probably the most important recent tactical shift. This Insight Report analyses the attacks that have so far taken place in Western Europe in 2016 and provides advice and recommendations to travellers and managers on how to mitigate the risks posed by the emerging new trends in Islamist militant activity.

The UN Permanent Court of Arbitration on 12 July issued a ruling on the territorial dispute in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines. The ruling has lead to a hardening of positions between China and the Philippines and is likely to result in raised diplomatic tensions between China and several regional states, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam. This Insight Report looks at the travel security implications of these increased tensions.

Presidential elections in the country are due to take place on 27 August. The polls are likely to generate some politically motivated unrest amid controversy over incumbent president Ali Ben Bongo's eligibility, mounting socio-economic grievances and a restive student population. This Insight Report looks at the travel security risks associated with the electoral cycle and vulnerable locations, and provides recommendations on what to do in the event of sustained street violence.

This Insight Report looks at the travel security implications of the upcoming presidential and national assembly elections in the country on 11 August. The presidential election is likely to be a close contest between incumbent Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF) and opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND). Tensions have risen in the run-up to the polls; while low-level unrest is possible during the electoral cycle, the overall security environment is likely to remain stable.

This Insight Report provides an analysis of aviation-focused threats in East Africa since 2014 and demonstrates the ongoing intent of the Somalia-based Islamist extremist group al-Shabab to carry out 'spectacular' and symbolic attacks using bomb-making and concealment tactics. Al-Shabab has used Somali territory as a springboard for attacks outside Somali borders, including in both Kenya and Uganda. Since the start of 2016, both Kenyan and Ugandan authorities have announced that they had received information of plots by al-Shabab to carry out attacks against the aviation sectors within their respective countries. The report provides recommendations to international travellers, travel risk managers and aviation managers in the event of a terrorist attack targeting the aviation sector, or any related hoaxes, bomb threats or security alerts.

The United States will hold general elections on 8 November. Strong public opinions on the two presumptive presidential nominees – Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party – have resulted in substantial polarisation and related activism in recent months. As a result, this year's election has already been one of the more contentious and disruptive in recent US history, and politically motivated protests will continue in the lead-up to the polls. Such demonstrations are highly likely to remain isolated and occur mainly in the vicinity of election-related locations on key dates, particularly the Republican Party and the Democratic Party national conventions, which take place in the cities of will Cleveland (Ohio state) from 18-21 July and Philadelphia (Pennsylvania state) from 25-28 July. Precedent indicates that gatherings related to Trump in particular are likely to entail increased tension and disturbances. Proper attention to security arrangements and planning will be necessary during the electoral period to minimise disruption and ensure the safety of staff undertaking journeys to affected areas.

This Insight Report looks at the travel security risks during the current period of heightened activism in Thailand. A referendum on the new constitution will be held on 7 August; the proposed constitution will replace the one that was annulled when the NCPO (the military junta) seized power in a coup in 2014, ousting the elected Puea Thai government. The draft elections will take place in mid-2016 if the new constitution is approved.

Since January 2016, there has been an increase in the number of co-ordinated shootings and low-level explosions in the insurgency-affected provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala, as well as the southern districts of Songkhla. These are likely driven by the frustrations of some insurgent factions at the pace of the peace process, including the government's refusal to consider core separatist demands and the perception that the MARA Patani, an umbrella organisation of separatist groups, lacks the legitimacy to be the main representative in the negotiations. Amid uncertainty over the peace talks, we assess that there is a low possibility that separatist factions would turn to high-profile and out-of-area attacks to express their anger over issues ranging from the alleged impunity of the security forces to the slow progress of peace negotiations or the perceived lack of attention from the central government. Nonetheless, an escalation of the insurgency that could potentially threaten stability and security is unlikely to affect the country more broadly.

This Insight Briefing provides an overview of the key differences between the travel security information and advice produced by national governments, and their diplomatic missions, and our own. We are fully aware that travellers and risk managers will consult a number of information sources prior to travel to complex risk environments, and ‘state-issued' travel security advice – such as from the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office or the US Department of State – is often prominent among them. Advice issued by government bodies often does not align with our own, and this in turn can create a level of uncertainty, particularly when it is regarding travel to complex or rapidly evolving risk environments. This briefing examines the nature of state-issued travel security advice and how and why it may differ from ours.

Social media gives real-time access to a vast array of content and is increasingly being used by a variety of actors. Meanwhile, platforms such as Twitter and Facebook are reshaping the way we anticipate events and exercise crisis management. This Insight Briefing explains why security managers should incorporate social media into their intelligence cycle to help prepare for and monitor complex, fast-moving security situations. It explores ways of doing this, as well as the potential limitations and pitfalls of using social media as a source of reliable intelligence and information.

Central America, the Caribbean and eastern parts of the United States are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms each year. Hurricane season typically begins in June and runs until the end of November, peaking between mid-August and October. This Insight Report discusses how travel risk managers can prepare for and respond to hurricanes. A comprehensive business-continuity procedure should be in place; there should also be appropriate thresholds for the timely suspension of travel to affected locations. Furthermore, a structure for communicating these decision points and actions throughout the organisation is essential.

The 2016 Summer Olympics will take place from 5 to 21 August in the city of Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro state), while the Paralympic Games will be held on 7-18 September. Around 500,000 visitors are expected to travel to Rio de Janeiro to attend the Games, which will take place in 32 venues across the city. Around 85,000 additional security personnel will be deployed to maintain security during the period. Despite such measures, petty and violent crime will present the primary risks to travelers during the Games, though social unrest and a low, but persistent risk of terrorism will also remain travel security concerns. This Insight Report will examine such risks, as well as various logistical practicalities, to help facilitate a more prepared, knowledgeable and safer Olympic experience.

The 12 June 2016 mass shooting at a nightclub in Orlando (Florida state), in which 49 people were killed, highlights the threat of domestic terrorism. Although the overall risk of a terrorist incident remains low, attacks linked to Islamist extremism pose an increasing threat for foreigners in the United States. Instances whereby the suspects in a planned or actual attack were inspired by online international militant propaganda have grown in frequency over the past 18 months, highlighting the ability of extremist groups to incite violence via the internet. This Insight Report analyses the terrorist threat in the United States, including potential tactics and targets and provides recommendations for travel risk managers to manage associated risks. Basic recommendations for responding to active shooter and siege/hostage scenarios are also provided.

This Insight Report provides an analysis of aviation-focused terrorism in Europe since 2001 and demonstrates the ongoing intent of terrorist organisations to carry out 'spectacular' and symbolic attacks using bomb-making and concealment tactics that have been refined over the years. The report provides recommendations to international travellers, travel risk managers and aviation managers in the event of a terrorist attack targeting the aviation sector, or any related hoaxes, bomb threats or security alerts.

The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will commence on 6 June and end with a two- or three-day public holiday celebrating Eid al Fitr on 5 July. The degree to which Ramadan is observed varies from country to country, depending on local, legal, cultural and religious practices. However, significant travel and business disruption should be expected, especially in Muslim-majority countries, during the period and travel plans should be adjusted to take account of these conditions. The risks from increased militancy, crime rates and road traffic accidents also differ widely during the Ramadan period and travellers should be aware of how these risks pertain to their specific destination prior to departure. In addition, the underlying risks associated with normal travel to affected countries should always be taken into consideration when planning itineraries.

This Insight Report explains some common issues for women travellers around the Middle East, includes case studies highlighting some of the specific risk factors in major countries, and offers actionable advice women should take before and during travel to mitigate their exposure to profile-specific risks.

This Insight Briefing looks at the possible impact on business travel of the disruption and security risks commonly associated with election cycles in Western Africa. Largely based on precedents and lessons learnt from our own experience of poll-related security crises in the region – in Congo (DRC), Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali or Guinea-Bissau, to name just a few – it provides tips on how to evaluate risks, including through the appropriate identification of sensitive locations and dates, and plan business travel during election cycles. This briefing is presented by Natacha Crnjanski, Regional Security Information Manager (lead analyst) in charge of the Europe region, covering West Africa, and Charline Gelin, Co-ordinating Security Operations Manager, who both have experience analysing evolving risks and advising travellers in West African crises.

After months of protests and political turmoil, Brazil finds itself on the precipice of a political crisis that may result in President Dilma Rousseff's impeachment and early exit from office. This Insight Briefing will provide context for the political crisis, as well as its travel security implications and recommendations for navigating associated risks. Well-attended anti-government protests have taken place in recent months, and further related demonstrations are likely in urban centres throughout the coming months.

Following the announcement in late 2015 of plans for the capital Addis Ababa's expansion– known as the ‘Master Plan' - Ethiopia has witnessed a notable increase in social unrest, characterised by protests and demonstrations in Oromia region. The grievances of the Oromo people originally related to perception of land expropriation by the government, but security force crackdowns have brought long-standing perceptions of marginalisation to the fore and intensified the scale of the movement. Despite the cancellation of the ‘Master Plan' in January 2016, protests are likely to persist. The potential for further protests will largely depend on the nature of the authorities' response; further heavy-handed security force crackdowns could increase tension and violence. Travel risk managers should familiarise themselves with the prevailing security conditions and monitor for signs of escalating unrest, factoring in that extensive media restrictions will limit access to reliable security information.

Ten cities in France will host the 2016 UEFA European Championship (Euro 2016) from 10 June to 10 July and the country will welcome up to 8m supporters. The event will take place amid heightened vigilance linked to the threat posed by Islamist militancy in Western Europe in light of the high-casualty terrorist attacks carried out by the Islamic State (IS) group in Paris (November 2015) and Brussels (March 2016). This Insight Report explores the likely impact on travel and security of the tournament as well as the possibility of further terrorist attacks during the period throughout Western Europe. It provides practical recommendations to travel risk managers and business travellers to manage associated risks.

The US government's amendments to trade and travel restrictions regarding Cuba have led to an unprecedented influx of foreign travellers to the island over the last year, and this number is expected to continue to rise as relations between both countries further improve. This Insight Report examines the practicalities of business travel in Cuba, including banking, accommodation, telecommunications and aviation infrastructure, as well as some key security threats.

Despite missing a 23 March deadline, a peace agreement is likely to be reached between the leftist guerrilla Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the government in the coming months, after nearly three and a half years of negotiations. This Insight Report examines the significant challenges associated with integrating former combatants back into society, battling the spread of organised criminality and securing formerly FARC-occupied territories, and outlines the areas most likely to be affected by post-agreement conflict.

The Philippines will hold general elections on 9 May 2016. This Insight briefing looks at main trends in the election cycle and how such developments could potentially impact on travellers. The country's overall security environment is likely to remain stable throughout the election period, and we continue to advice that travel can continue with standard security precautions and close monitoring of political developments. While we assess that widespread unrest during the election period remains unlikely, bouts of low-level unrest and isolated scuffles between supporters of rival candidates, especially during the campaign period, are very likely to occur.

There has been growing speculation about the structural integrity of the Mosul Dam following a US Department of State report in January that warned of the barrier's possible failure. The impact of a collapse would be manifold and very large-scale; this Insight Report outlines the likely impacts of a dam breach and what travel risk managers can do to be prepared now to respond to such an event.

A series of attacks since November 2015 highlight the re-emergence of anti-government activity as a notable factor in the travel security environment in the mountainous remote areas of Luang Prabang, Vientiane, Xaysomboune and Xiengkhuang provinces. The attacks are likely to have been carried out by organised anti-government groups that are at least partly made up of former ethnic Hmong insurgents. The primary risk to foreigners is from exposure to attacks while conducting intercity overland journeys in the abovementioned provinces. Staff in at risk areas will need access to local knowledge, language support, the most recent locally sourced threat intelligence, journey management support, appropriate accommodation, and emergency response capabilities.

Congo will hold on 20 March 2016 the first round of its presidential election, which was initially slated for July 2016. Given that incumbent President Denis Sassou-Nguesso is expected to win in the first round amid increased political tensions between opposition groups and the government, demonstrations against the results are likely even though the electoral campaign has seen no related unrest. Based on the findings of a recent research trip by our team, this Insight Report explores the likely impact on travel and security of any unrest associated with the controversial election and provides recommendations to manage associated risks to business managers and expatriates.

The scope of the travel sharing economy – an on-demand system of peer-to-peer-based sharing of access to goods and services – has broadened significantly in recent years. Ease of accessibility and use while mobile means non-traditional ground transport and accommodation services are increasingly being used by business travellers. This Insight Report looks at two of the most popular shared services for business travellers – ride sharing and house sharing – to better understand the benefits and risks.

Afghanistan is likely to have its most challenging year in a long time in 2016, and this will directly affect the capital Kabul in many ways. This Insight Report provides a year-ahead outlook for the travel security situation in Kabul ahead of the approaching annual commencement of the Taliban fighting season following our visit to the city in early March. Our outlook for travel security conditions in Kabul in 2016 is broadly negative, but the capital is highly unlikely to fall to insurgents in the year ahead. Travel to Kabul requires a very high degree of resilience, preparedness and professional security support. While we expect the insurgency to escalate significantly this spring and summer (especially in May-August), we do not anticipate a need for mass evacuations, and this report details the key considerations for travel risk managers with staff in or travelling to the capital.

The failure of the Philippine government to pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) has heightened tensions in Mindanao and put pressure on the ceasefire with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). This Insight Report looks at possible scenarios that may arise from the non-passage of the BBL. Regardless of the BBL's fate, the long-term security environment in Mindanao will remain fluid, and will continue to be undermined by the presence of various militant and criminal groups whose activities are increasingly indistinguishable.

This report is aimed at assessing the potential impact of Russia's military intervention in Syria and its implications on the viability of travel, particularly in some government-held areas where prospects for a gradual de-escalation of fighting are greater than elsewhere in the country. It is intended for individuals and organisations that continue to travel to Syria, or are considering conducting such travel in the short to medium term, despite our standing advice to defer all travel to the country. The recent ceasefire agreement excludes powerful extremist Islamist factions, and is therefore unlikely to have a significant positive impact on the country's travel security environment. Travel security risks for Syria continue to be rated as EXTREME. The inherent risks are further complicated by the very limited ability to support travellers, even in government-held areas, where travel would otherwise be viable.

The capital Mexico City has long been perceived as impervious to the often high-levels of drug-related violence that have affected other parts of the country in recent years. However, a US report in mid-2015 said that several of the country's most powerful drug trafficking organisations all maintained operations within the capital. Although violent crime is likely to continue to increase in Mexico City in the medium term, most such incidents are expected to remain within low-income areas.

Since September 2015, Israel has witnessed a steady number of small-scale stabbing, shooting and car-ramming attacks targeting its security forces and civilians. The wave of unrest was triggered by an incident at the flashpoint Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount) compound in Jerusalem. However, the number of civilian casualties remains low, with most perpetrators apprehended or killed by the security forces. This Insight Report identifies patterns in this violence and provides advice aimed at mitigating associated risks.

Since September 2015, Israel has witnessed a steady number of small-scale stabbing, shooting and car-ramming attacks targeting its security forces and civilians. The wave of unrest was triggered by an incident at the flashpoint Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount) compound in Jerusalem. However, the number of civilian casualties remains low, with most perpetrators apprehended or killed by the security forces. Unsophisticated, low casualty attacks are likely to remain the most common expression of anti-Israeli violence, and are most likely to occur in Jerusalem. The main risks to travellers therefore stem from being in the vicinity of one of these attacks. This Insight Report identifies patterns in this violence and provides advice aimed at mitigating associated risks.

We raised the travel security risk rating for Turkey's two main cities, the commercial capital Istanbul and the political capital Ankara, from Low to MEDIUM on 21 January, nine days after a suicide bombing killed 12 foreigners in Istanbul's central Sultanahmet Square. The bombing highlighted key security issues affecting our assessment of the threats facing foreigners in these cities, and it became increasingly important to differentiate the security environments in these two cities from the surrounding parts of the country. This Insight Briefing provides a thorough explanation of our decision to increase the travel security risk rating for these two major cities.

Uganda will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on 18 February. President Yoweri Museveni and his ruling NRM will seek to retain their dominance over domestic politics, but the presidential candidacies of two well-supported opposition leaders have elevated the potential for election-related tensions and unrest. Travel risk managers should familiarise themselves with security conditions and monitor signs of escalating unrest ahead of the polls, or signs that an election outcome with negative security implications is in prospect.

This Insight Report looks at some of the main issues affecting travel security in the Americas region in 2016, as well as key dates to factor into planning. Petty and violent crime will continue to represent the greatest security threat to members in the region, while political instability and popular discontent will continue to drive social unrest in parts of Latin America. There are also several key dates throughout the year that are likely to have a disruptive impact on business travel or entail travel security risks.

Iran has recently conducted numerous arrests of alleged Islamic State (IS) members, highlighting the militant group's likely efforts to establish a presence or alliances in Iran and its intent to stage attacks in the country. The authorities' tight grip on domestic security conditions is unlikely to loosen as the recent lifting of international sanctions gradually brings foreign business travellers back to the country, and we expect the travel security environment to remain broadly stable in the year ahead. This Insight Report provides an overview of the current issues, vulnerabilities and outlook for militancy, which will remain an important potential threat in Iran, but one that is unlikely to escalate to a point requiring avoidance of inward travel. Travel risk managers should monitor the frequency of attacks, targeting patterns and relative capabilities of key militant groups, and have an updated and viable evacuation plan for all travellers and expatriates in Iran.

A series of high-profile attacks since end-September – including three shootings of Western nationals – highlights that the threat posed by militancy has emerged as an increasingly important challenge to the country's travel security environment. Despite the claimed affiliation to transnational militant networks, domestic militant groups are unlikely to gain the operational expertise that is needed to carry out large-scale or sophisticated attacks. While the highest risk to foreigners is from incidental exposure to small-scale attacks in poorly secure public places, opportunistic and narrowly targeted attacks against individual Western nationals cannot be ruled out. The frequency of attacks has put an upward pressure on Bangladesh's MEDIUM travel risk rating. In the longer term, travel risk managers with regular travel to the country should prepare for the impact that a potential HIGH travel risk rating would have, particularly in terms of travel approvals, and the degree of preparation and education of travellers.

Successful counter-terrorism operations over the past five years have significantly limited the ability of organised militant networks to operate. However, Islamist militancy remains a credible threat, and there has been a resurgence in affiliations between local militants and foreign extremists, including the Iraq- and Syria-based Islamist extremist group Islamic State. This Insight Report looks at the evolution of the capabilities and motivations of Islamist militants; we assess that counter-terrorism operations will continue to significantly limit the ability of extremists to plan and execute sophisticated, high-profile attacks, though the authorities will find it increasingly difficult to detect and prevent all plots. In the longer term, influence from Indonesians returning from Middle Eastern conflict zones is likely to increase the risks associated with terrorism to foreigners.

Throughout November, heavy rainfall affected large parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states. Rainfall peaked in early December, when widespread flooding occurred in Tamil Nadu's capital Chennai. India's monsoon season lasts from June to mid-September and southern India is affected additionally from mid-October to end-December. During this period, frequent disruption to overland travel lasting several hours will be the primary concern for travellers. However, every few years, major urban centres will face widespread and sustained flooding. This could result in citywide restrictions and businesses could be forced to restrict or suspend operations for several days. This Insight Report looks at various case studies to highlight the need for business continuity plans and escalation preparedness, as well as to discuss how International SOS-Control Risks can assist members.

Scams and confidence tricks directed at travellers continue to be reported across countries in the Asia Pacific region. Each year, many travellers fall victim to these schemes or worse, find themselves in dangerous situations. The aim of this Insight Briefing is to prepare travellers by identifying scams that they are likely to encounter upon their arrival, during their trip and upon departure. We also look at the more common methods used by scammers and the profile of preferred targets, with specific advice and mitigation measures for personal travel security.

A run-off vote to elect the next president of Haiti is set to be held on 27 December between the two top-polling candidates from the first-round ballot on 25 October. However, allegations of electoral fraud have led to growing unrest, putting the run-off schedule in doubt and further destabilising the travel security environment. Related protests have become a near-daily occurrence in cities across the country, particularly in the capital Port-au-Prince. Distrust in officials and the electoral process will likely lead to increased unrest in the coming weeks, posing an incidental risk to travellers.

This Insight Report looks at the Islamist militant threat in Central Asia following the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)'s pledged of allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) in July 2015. Despite Islamist militancy and radicalization being genuine concerns for Central Asian states, the region is more of a recruiting field rather than an actual theatre of operations at this stage.

This global Insight Report looks at the main travel security issues and trends which might affect your travellers in the coming year. Comprehensive travel risk management programmes need to address threats from terrorism; violent crime; political violence and protests affecting wider stability; civil conflicts and insurgencies; natural hazards; and medical and public health risks.

The November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris (France) highlighted that Islamist militants may be gaining the capability to launch larger and more complex attacks, in addition to the threat currently posed by individual low-tech ‘lone wolf' gunmen. This Insight Report analyses the incidents in Paris, looks at governments' responses and discusses how travel security managers should prepare their travelling staff.

Tensions between the armed opposition movement Renamo and the government have persisted in recent months. We expect clashes to remain confined to rural areas of Manica, Nampula, Sofala, Tete and Zambezia provinces. Nevertheless, travel security managers should monitor developments for signs of deterioration, maintain up-to-date contact information for in-country staff, and implement journey management policies for travellers visiting central provinces.

Elections to fill all 167 seats in Venezuela's unicameral congressional body, the National Assembly, are set to take place on 6 December in cities and states across the country. This Insight Report looks at the potential impact of the electoral period and its aftermath on travel and security, as well as how travel risk managers should prepare their travelling staff and expatriates.

Following the 31 October crash of a Russian-operated commercial airliner that departed from Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport, investigations have increasingly been circling around the conclusion that an explosive device planted on board the aircraft prior to take-off is likely to have been the cause. If confirmed that the incident was indeed the result of a terrorist act, the implications for travel and aviation security would be manifold. This Insight Briefing looks at what we know so far about the incident, the key risk factors that may inform threats to air travel associated with extremist groups around the region, and an outlook for aviation security in the wake of the crash from International SOS's aviation security specialist MedAire department.

Saudi Arabia has recently experienced a surge in extremist violence, primarily targeting Shia Muslims and the security forces. Militant attacks have forced the authorities to escalate their already-robust counter-measures, including initiating major security force crackdowns. Nonetheless, despite what seems to be an effective crackdown against extremist elements, there are no clear indications that radicalised individuals (some of whom have fought for extremist groups in Syria and Iraq) will surrender to the crackdown. As a result, violent extremism is likely to continue to present a serious domestic threat, and could worsen in the coming year. The main issues requiring monitoring are signs that domestic militant groups are changing their targeting patterns and more directly threatening the security of foreign nationals, or indications that the authorities are losing control of local militant activity. However, neither scenario appears likely in the near term.

Côte d'Ivoire's presidential election on 25 October is the first to be held in the country since the post-electoral crisis of 2010-11, during which the country was paralysed for several months and more than 3,000 people are estimated to have been killed. The security situation remains volatile and This Insight Report looks at the potential impact of the electoral period on travel and security, as well as how travel risk managers should prepare their travelling staff and expatriates.

General elections in Myanmar are scheduled for 8 November, with the results expected to be announced on 22 November. Large-scale and disruptive demonstrations could occur if the main opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) were to reject the results. While unlikely, if this scenario were to unfold, widespread unrest would substantially increase the likelihood of exposure to incidental violence, requiring members to potentially suspend inbound travel.

One year has elapsed since the disappearance of 43 students from the town of Iguala (Guerrero state). This report looks at how the travel security situation has evolved since, and how managers can ensure the safety of their travellers in the region in the coming weeks and months.

Officials have attributed two bomb attacks that occurred in the capital Bangkok in August to a criminal gang involved in human trafficking, potentially of ethnic-Uighurs (Turkic-speaking Muslims) from China. The attacks were allegedly motivated by the government's crackdown on such activities, though police statements also suggest a potential affiliation between the gang and militant cells supportive of the deposed former government. This Insight Report looks at the threat of militancy in the country from a variety of groups.

This Insight Report addresses potential sources of instability for travel over the course of the potentially volatile 25 October national elections. We assess that the principal security issue will stem from opposition-driven unrest in identified flashpoint areas in Zanzibar and the country's northern and central regions. The overall security environment should remain stable, but enhanced security precautions identified in this report are required.

Large demonstrations have taken place since late July following corruption allegations against Prime Minister Najib Razak. We expect protests to grow in scale and frequency in the coming months, driven by the country's economic issues and ongoing investigations into Najib's corruption charges. Travel risk managers should remain informed of any planned protests and prepare staff for associated disruption. In addition, they should monitor the triggers outlined in this report for indications of a substantive deterioration in the security environment and outlook.

The June parliamentary elections were followed by significant changes in the government's foreign and domestic security policies that have had substantial implications for the travel security environment. Turkey's main Kurdish militant group has effectively ended a ceasefire that had held since March 2013 and Turkey's apparent reluctance to confront extremist Islamic State (IS) elements may have lifted. This Insight Report identifies key triggers to watch and provides security advice for managers to mitigate their exposure.

Haiti's upcoming electoral season could prove to be one of the most complicated, and institutionally important, in the country's recent history. The first round of long-overdue legislative elections will be on 9 August, followed by presidential elections and the second round of legislative elections on 25 October and, if needed, a presidential run-off on 27 December. Unruly and often violent demonstrations by opposing political parties occur regularly during electoral periods; however, it is highly unlikely that protest activity would require countrywide evacuation from Haiti.

The recent re-election of President Omar al-Bashir suggests that Sudan's travel security environment is likely to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. However, while the general outlook for stability remains positive, this Insight Report examines several potential sources of instability and provides recommendations to travel risk managers on how to mitigate the associated risks.

El Salvador has experienced a significant increase in gang-related violence over the first half of 2015. This Insight Briefing gives a brief overview of the origins, structure, and modus operandi of criminal gangs in El Salvador, the current situation in the country, and the travel security implications of rising violent crime.

This Insight Briefing looks at what security managers can do to mitigate the travel disruption and security risks arising from two types of natural disasters – tropical storms and earthquakes – that regularly affect both the Asia Pacific region, as well as the Americas. We use several case studies, including Typhoon Haiyan (Philippines 2013), Hurricane Odile (Mexico 2014), as well as earthquakes in Nepal (2015) and Haiti (2010), to draw out those implications.

The road to Argentina's 25 October general elections is expected to be marked by persistent political and labour unrest. Growing discontent with official corruption, socio-economic conditions, and the current administration's inability to provide sustainable solutions to the problems facing the working class will also drive protests. While the travel security environment is unlikely to significantly deteriorate in the lead-up to the elections, travel security managers should maintain accurate contact and itinerary details for all travellers as a basic precaution.

South Sudan's civil conflict has been particularly intense in recent months, while peace negotiations have failed to make significant progress. The conflict has also had knock-on effects, including undermining the economy and allowing more localised conflicts to proliferate amid the resultant security vacuum. This Insight Report identifies and assesses four key trends that could lead to further deterioration in the travel security environment, and how managers can mitigate the associated risks to their staff.

The 2015 Pan American and Parapan American Games will be held in Toronto (Ontario province), Canada, on 10-26 July and 7-15 August, respectively. The main impact of the games on business travellers will be from petty and opportunistic crime, and localised protests and traffic congestion. There is no specific threat to foreign travellers from criminal activity; however, individuals should take basic security precautions to mitigate the risk of petty crime.

The siege of the capital Nairobi's Westgate shopping centre by the Somalia-based al-Shabab group in September 2013 was the most high profile terrorist incident in the country since the 1998 bombings. The threat of another attack on a comparable scale is persistent; this Insight Briefing will assess how the militant threat has evolved in the last two years and what security managers can do to mitigate risks to their staff.

Incumbent president Pierre Nkurunziza's nomination on 25 April as the candidate of the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party for the 26 June presidential elections has triggered an ongoing opposition-led protest campaign and an unsuccessful military coup. This Insight Report looks at the travel and security impact of this evolving situation and at how travel security managers should prepare their in-country staff for a further deterioration in the situation.

Mexican citizens will head to the polls on 7 June to cast their vote in federal legislative mid-terms as well as state and local elections in 17 of Mexico's 32 federal entities (federal district and 16 states). Local and state elections have traditionally exacerbated unrest and led to increased violence, and the 2015 electoral period has already seen an uptick in related disturbances.

Nearly all Asian countries are affected by tropical cyclones. The overwhelming majority form between May and November and the 2015 north-west Pacific typhoon season is forecast to be the most active in a decade. Managers should ensure they have comprehensive business-continuity procedures in place. There should also be appropriate thresholds for the timely suspension of travel to affected locations. A structure for communicating these decision points and actions throughout the organisation is essential.

A magnitude 7.9 earthquake on 25 April struck around 50 miles (80km) north-west of the capital Kathmandu, killing more than 7,000 people and injuring more than 13,500 others. Relief operations are under way. While the magnitude of the damages is significant, the situation has notably improved in major urban centres, including the capital Kathmandu and Pokhara (Kaski district, Western region). However, in the worst-affected areas (concentrated in Western and Central regions), reconstruction will take months.

The travel security environment in Yemen has steadily deteriorated in recent months, as the Zaydi Shia Muslim Houthi movement has gradually expanded its territorial control in many parts of the country, often violently. This Insight Briefing provides an overview of current security conditions in the country and our forecast of where the conflict is going. It also details the challenges we faced, successes we achieved and lessons we identified in assisting clients in this hostile environment.

Low-intensity fighting between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels persists in the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, threatening a ceasefire agreed in February and continuing to make travel to these regions extremely difficult. This Insight Report discusses the impact of the conflict on the travel security environment in Donetsk, Luhansk and other parts of the country, as well as the potential for a resumption of full-scale hostilities.

Business travel can lead to increased vulnerability to cyber threats, because travellers often do not enjoy the same information security protection as when they are working at their offices. This Insight Report addresses the issue of cyber security during business travel, and provides practical recommendations for how travel risk managers and business travellers should approach this challenge. Organisations need to understand the specific threat they face when developing cyber security controls and travel security policies that address the risks that business travellers may face. Any approach that seeks to reduce exposure to the threat needs to be tailored to each individual organisation, but there are also recommendations that all travellers can follow. Failing to understand and mitigate cyber threats to travellers can have a significant business impact, and with the threat to business travellers always evolving and showing signs of becoming more acute, it is a source of risk that all organisations should take seriously.

This global Insight Report looks at the main travel security issues and trends which might affect your travel risk management programme in the coming year. It identifies those issues for which early preparations can be made and highlights those which could require additional precautions or restrictions on travel.

The Mexican authorities arrested two of the country's most high-profile criminal kingpins in February and March 2015. However, these arrests are unlikely to lead to any significant improvement in the country's travel security environment. Clashes between – and within – cartels, and retaliatory attacks against the security forces, are likely to continue and potentially increase in the near to medium term. Criminality in Mexico is highly dynamic and security conditions should be regularly assessed, as changes in the security landscape occur rapidly.

The threat posed by militancy in Egypt continues to evolve, and presents the most important long-term challenge for the country's travel security environment. Egypt faces militancy threats from various groups on several fronts, driven by dynamics within the local population and an increasingly volatile regional situation. However, the most likely medium-term scenario is that militancy will remain underground and not evolve into a widespread phenomenon that could spiral out of the authorities' control.

Violent street activism will remain a constant aspect of Bangladeshi life for the foreseeable future, given the zero-sum dynamic between the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the ruling Awami League. This Insight Report will discuss the well-established patterns of opposition-led street violence, as well as the potential growth in opposition-instigated political violence. The primary risk to foreigners is from incidental exposure to such opposition-related protest activity and political violence.

The security environment in Angola's capital, Luanda, is characterised by severe crime and latent potential for socio-economic unrest. As falling oil prices increasingly restrict public spending, rising anti-government sentiment over economic disparities poses the most credible threat of deterioration in security. This Insight Report examines the potential for deterioration in security in Luanda, with particular reference to crime, unrest and political instability. Travel risk managers should actively monitor a range of escalation triggers to ensure appropriate contingency plans are in place.

Violent crime in El Salvador has steadily risen since June 2014. March 2015 was the most violent month in the last decade, and homicide levels are likely to remain high and potentially rise in the medium term. Travel to El Salvador requires stringent security protocols; all travellers should receive pre-travel briefings prior to deployment. Although there is potential for an increase in gang violence, we do not anticipate that this will directly affect the safety of foreign business travellers, or require that travel be deferred.

Despite improvements in the country's security infrastructure since 2008, Islamist militants retain both the capacity and intent to launch attacks in major cities around the country. This Insight Report looks at the expected evolution of the capabilities and motivations of Islamists militants, their targeting patterns, and their modus operandi. We assess that the key threat is from domestic Islamist groups with links to regional extremist networks, though there are growing concerns around the threat posed by local sympathisers acting in an individual capacity.

Predominantly Shia Muslim opposition groups still lack the means to force the ruling Sunni Muslim al-Khalifa family to make significant political concessions, and demonstrations will therefore continue for the foreseeable future. Heightened security measures in the capital Manama have largely restricted persistent anti-government protests to a few neighbourhoods of the city and outlying villages. This Insight Report examines the threat that the continuing unrest poses to Bahrain's travel security environment, and provides tangible advice to both travellers and travel risk managers to mitigate the associated risks.

The threat from Islamist terrorism in Western Europe is increasingly taking the form of so-called ‘lone wolf' attacks by locally-based individuals. This reflects that transnational Islamist groups are increasingly using sophisticated and effective media strategies, especially through internet, to encourage the self-radicalisation of disenfranchised young Muslims. However, these attacks do not pose a significant threat to business travellers in Europe, as they have a limited impact: we are very unlikely to change our travel risk ratings for western European countries in light of the current threat. This Insight Report looks at the ongoing, and potentially evolving, threat posed by jihadist activity in Western Europe and how travel security managers should prepare their travelling staff.

This global Insight Report looks at the main travel security issues and trends which might affect your travel risk management programme in the coming year. It identifies those issues for which early preparations can be made and highlights those which could require additional precautions or restrictions on travel.

Opposition defiance towards the government of President Joseph Kabila remains high following the president's attempt to adopt an electoral law linking the 2016 presidential election to a prior national census, which would have delayed the polls beyond 2016. Heightened political tensions and spikes of unrest are likely to continue in the run-up to the scheduled 2015 local, municipal, provincial and senatorial elections and to the December 2016 legislative and presidential polls. This will pose direct and indirect risks to business travellers and expatriates over the coming months.

East Timor's nearly two year period of stability has been recently interrupted by nearly a month of gang violence, which has been linked to the politically connected ex-guerrilla Mauk Moruk and his opposition to the government of the now ex-prime minister, Xanana Gusmão. The ability of the political and military establishment to foment unrest is of particular concern as East Timor heads towards a period of political fluidity. Our travel advice remains to defer non-essential travel to affected areas.

Venezuela currently faces plummeting oil revenues, runaway inflation, widespread scarcity of basic goods, rising insecurity and mounting pressure on the government to improve the country's economic and security outlook. The economic crisis is likely to worsen, with continuing implications for travel security in the short to medium term. Travel to the country should be for essential business only. Plans should be in place to ensure that adequate food, water, medical supplies and fuel are available to sustain travellers.

The heightened presence of active Sunni militants on Lebanon's eastern borders presents a serious and credible threat to the country's security, as spillover violence has been intensifying in the country's Syrian border areas in recent months. Despite retaining the ability to create instability in border areas, the militants have lost much of their capacity to launch attacks in and around Beirut. Border insecurity in Bekaa and North provinces are separate but related issues; securing the north against expanding militancy is a security challenge that will continue to divert security resources from Bekaa and elsewhere, limiting capacity to respond to multiple crises. This Insight Report examines the threat that these developments pose to Lebanon's overall security environment, and provides tangible advice to both travellers and travel risk managers to mitigate the associated risks.

The rainy season on the island of Java, including the capital Jakarta, runs from October to April, with rainfall peaking in late January and February. During this period, frequent disruption to overland travel lasting several hours will be the primary concern for travellers. In a worst-case scenario, decisions regarding stand-fast, internal relocation or evacuation would be determined by an organisation's internal support capabilities, as well as the availability of support by emergency services and local providers.

The 26 September 2014 police attack on student protesters in Guerrero state, in which six people were killed and 43 others disappeared, sparked outrage and highly disruptive protests across the country. On the three-month anniversary of the attack, protest leaders and families of the missing students said that they felt the movement was 'stronger than ever' and that they would begin a new stage of the protest campaign. High levels of violent crime and highly disruptive protests will continue in Guerrero in the near to medium term.

Opportunistic crime is a significant problem in many major cities of western Europe, especially during holiday periods. Petty crime rates are higher in urban areas, where people, transport facilities and tourist venues are concentrated. Foreign nationals might be at greater risk than locals due to their perceived wealth and because they are considered easier targets. This Insight Report gives advice on how to mitigate the risk and how to deal with crime if it occurs.

Nigeria will hold general elections in February 2015, which are expected to see outbreaks of politically motivated unrest and violence. This Insight Briefing looks at main scenarios in the election cycle and how electoral developments could fuel insecurity on the ground, presents generic triggers that can serve as a basis for the implementation of contingency measures aimed at shielding travellers from any developing disturbances or disruption, and provides related recommendations for managers.

Rates of crime are on the rise and are creeping towards the record-breaking levels of 2006-08. Rising income disparity, the wide availability of weaponry and other factors mean this trend is set to continue in the coming years. South Africa is thus unlikely to shake off the ‘fear factor' that continues to shape foreign perceptions of the country. This Insight Report investigates crime statistics, identifies trends and provides five simple principles that travellers can adopt to significantly reduce the risks.

Conventional combat troops of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will withdraw at the end of 2014, concluding a 13 year deployment. Around 13,000 foreign troops will remain in the country, mainly in an advisory and training capacity. This report provides an assessment on the security outlook post-ISAF and provides recommendations for travel risk managers with staff in or travelling to Afghanistan, as well as indicators of increased insecurity that should be factored into decision-making.

Africa has some of the world's longest-serving heads of state, many presiding over fragile governments which might not survive their deaths. This report examines the main factors which might affect business travel during consequent potentially disorderly transitions of power, and gives recommendations on how to prepare for them.

Africa has some of the world's longest-serving heads of state, many presiding over fragile governments which might not survive their deaths. This report examines the main factors which might affect business travel during consequent potentially disorderly transitions of power, and gives recommendations on how to prepare for them.

Nigeria in February 2015 will hold probably the most hotly contested elections since the restoration of democracy in 1999, particularly the presidential contest between the incumbent Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP)'s Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian southerner, and the All Progressives Congress (APC)'s Gen Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler and Muslim northerner running for the fourth time. Members visiting Nigeria during that period should be briefed carefully on the location-specific risks they could face, including from incidental violence, impromptu travel disruption and lawlessness, and required security measures.

Since mid-May 2014, when a coalition of nationalist militias attacked Islamist brigades in Benghazi on the same weekend that Zintan-based groups targeted the Islamist-leaning parliament in the capital Tripoli, Libya's security environment has become increasingly polarised and complex. This Insight Briefing will provide a thorough description of current travel security conditions, as well as our journey-management recommendations for how travel to certain areas may still be possible.

Unless parliamentary elections are held by 12 January 2015, parliament will dissolve and President Martelly will rule by decree. The deadline is unlikely to be met. Anti-Martelly protests are expected to increase leading up to the deadline, and could become violent. Spontaneous demonstrations and violent political protests can occur with no warning. Managers should identify locations where staff can be centralised and can stand fast for up to five days. Members should be prepared to postpone travel at short notice.

Recent events highlight concerns about the impact of the activities of the Iraq- and Syria-based extremist group Islamic State (IS) on South-east Asia. IS's ideological appeal means that there is an increased likelihood that regional sympathisers may stage one-off and unsophisticated attacks and incidental exposure to such incidents poses the main risk to foreign travellers. An effective incident management plan is necessary to address a security incident involving one or more members of staff; this should include the ability to quickly locate and communicate with staff.

This Insight Briefing serves as a review of the 2014 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin and Eastern Pacific and provides lessons learned from this year's storm activity. As hurricane season comes to a close on 30 November, companies should review any vulnerabilities that were identified during this year's storm activity and begin addressing them to mitigate threats to personnel and facilities for the upcoming 2015 season.

Myanmar has experienced a dramatic increase in foreigners visiting the country over the past three years. This Insight Briefing looks at the measures that can be taken to mitigate these risks, and also explores other issues related to travel in Myanmar, such as money, communications and the selection of accommodation.

General elections are scheduled for 19 November, and will be the first since the military component of the Australia- and New Zealand-led Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI) withdrew in 2013. While the vote itself is expected to pass off largely without incident, developments in the post-election period may result in protests and associated violence, particularly in the capital Honiara.

Persistent conflict across the Syrian border from Turkey's Sanliurfa province has triggered the biggest refugee crisis and Turkish military response since the Syria civil conflict began. The cross-border impact of fighting in Kobane (Syria) has been unprecedented, though foreigners in Turkey have not been directly targeted in any related security incidents. This Insight Report looks at travel security in Turkey's Syrian border areas and provides advice to travel risks managers on how to keep staff in that area safe.

The country will host the 9th Group of 20 (G20) Leaders' Summit on 15-16 November in Brisbane, the capital of Queensland state. This Insight Report assesses the travel security impact of the G20 summit, with the principal concern for most business travellers likely to stem from travel disruption associated with the event. Additionally, numerous groups are expected to stage protests in central Brisbane between 8 and 16 November, some of which are likely to involve localised unrest involving hardline activists.