Zambia | Latest developments | Update

Level: Notice
Location: Zambia
Category: Election, Protest/Rally, Road disruption

Expect disruption during the ongoing campaign period for the 13 August general election. The campaign period will run until 12 August and will entail regular public rallies and roadshows. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema and 13 other candidates have filed their nominations to contest the presidential vote. Campaign events are likely to remain orderly and peaceful. However, there is an underlying risk of localised scuffles between rival supporters at election-related gatherings. Expect an increased police presence around election-related events and political interests.

Advice

• Monitor election-related developments, including information on any planned campaign rallies near all relevant locations such as accommodation and worksites, as well as the routes between these locations. Monitor our Zambia alerts for notable developments.
• Local nationals attending political events should inform trusted contacts of their location, maintain heightened vigilance and leave at the first sign of unrest. Foreign nationals and business travellers should plan journeys bypassing such events to minimise inconvenience. If caught up in unrest, move to a secure location, such as your accommodation or office. Remain there until the situation stabilises.
• Reconfirm the status of routes through areas where gatherings are known to be taking place and allow additional time for journeys.
• Expect heightened security around all political interests, including rallies, political party offices and residences of prominent politicians. Follow all official directives and carry relevant identification documents to ease passage through security checks.
• Be aware that politics can be a sensitive subject. Avoid discussions of a political nature or criticism of the authorities for fear of causing offence or altercations. As a precaution, avoid wearing colours associated with rival parties (red is associated with the UPND and green with the PF).

More detail

Impact

Local authorities have suspended all public gatherings until further notice following unrest reported in Mazabuka town (Mazabuka district) on 7 June. The incident occurred after the police reportedly prevented a political candidate from launching his campaign at Ndeke Grounds, citing scheduling conflicts. The situation then escalated and the police deployed tear gas to disperse the candidate's supporters.

Separately, on 5 June, supporters of the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) and the Tonse Pamodzi Alliance clashed in Chawama (Lusaka District). The violence reportedly erupted after rival supporters allegedly attempted to disrupt a UPND meeting. At least five arrests have been made amid an ongoing investigation.

Disruption during the campaign period is likely to entail traffic congestion caused by political convoys and large crowds. Delays of several hours are possible in urban centres during major rallies. Socio-economic grievances could drive attendance at such events.

There is also a credible risk of sporadic political violence, including attacks targeting rival supporters and party members. While such incidents are uncommon, the potential for them occurring will increase closer to the election. Political violence ahead of the 2021 general election prompted the authorities to deploy the military to maintain order in affected areas.

The security forces are broadly viewed as politically neutral, though reports in recent years have suggested possible rising politicisation within the military. While there is little evidence to verify this, such a development may increase the likelihood of the military dispersing opposition rallies, including through forcible measures. Any ensuing disturbances would pose incidental risks to bystanders.

Outlook

The security environment is expected to remain broadly stable throughout the campaign and election periods. The UPND has begun the campaign period as the dominant political party amidst a fragmented opposition. Hichilema has emerged as a clear front-runner and several UPND candidates have already secured seats within the National Assembly after being nominated unopposed. These factors are likely to reduce the levels of electoral uncertainty nationally and in several constituencies, thereby lowering the risk of widespread election related unrest. While tensions related to the election and surrounding perceptions of its legitimacy may prompt protests and violent confrontations, such events are likely to be localised and short-lived.

Context

Assessment

Hichilema will have a strong electoral advantage. Hichilema’s UPND has established a strong coalition, with several political parties endorsing Hichilema’s candidacy. Conversely, the opposition is fragmented and there is no single dominant opposition candidate capable of consolidating sufficient support to launch a credible challenge against Hichilema.

Former president Edgar Lungu (in office 2015-21) was set to lead the main opposition Patriotic Fund (PF) in the election. However, following his death in June 2025, the party has become increasingly fractured, leading to multiple PF factions nominating or backing different presidential candidates. The dominant PF-aligned faction led by presidential candidate Brian Mundubile has sought to reunify the party. Despite this, the disruption caused by the party’s prolonged fragmentation will undermine its ability to gain sufficient momentum to successfully challenge Hichilema in the presidential vote, and the UPND in parliament.