Lebanon | Latest developments | Update

Level: Advisory
Location: Lebanon
Category: Conflict

Defer all travel to Lebanon amid heightened tensions despite Israel and Lebanon agreeing to the US-brokered ceasefire on 1 June. The proposal stipulates Hizbullah is obligated to cease cross-border operations and attacks on Israeli targets in exchange for Israel halting airstrikes on the capital Beirut and its southern suburbs. Hizbullah has rejected the proposal. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Israeli forces will continue operations in southern Lebanon and can target Beirut if Hizbullah continues its attacks on Israel. Israeli and Lebanese representatives are set to resume on 22 June the following round of negotiations.

Advice

Inbound business travellers

• Defer all travel to Lebanon until further notice, despite the extension to the ceasefire, due to continued Israeli airstrikes and broader regional instability.

In-country workforce

• In-country workforce should depart the country via commercial means.
• Those intending to stay should ensure access to a robust and resilient local assistance network (logistical, security and medical), as well as secure transport, accommodation, power, communications, fuel, food, water, medication and other goods. Maintain stocks of essential supplies at your accommodation. Preparations should include stockpiling food and water and ensuring access to backup power.
• Avoid known Hizbullah-affiliated facilities, as they could be targeted by airstrikes. Be ready to shelter in place in the event of an aerial attack.
• Defer all travel to southern Lebanon amid ongoing Israeli ground and aerial operations there.
• Remain informed of the latest developments via verified sources, including International SOS alerts, diplomatic missions and local contacts. Do not act upon unverified information.

More detail

Impact

Israel has attacked alleged Hizbullah positions in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire. Similarly, Hizbullah has carried out rocket attacks against Israeli positions in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) issued a warning on 4 June asking people to avoid heading towards south of Zahrani river until further notice. Additionally, the Lebanese authorities have advised residents against returning to southern parts of Lebanon due to the persistent threat of hostilities. Israel stated it will continue its ground operations in the security zone up to the so-called yellow line, a military buffer zone, including the Beaufort area (Nabatieh governorate).

Outlook

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire remains fragile, with further violations likely on both sides. Although the US-brokered agreement reduces the likelihood of immediate Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, the risk of further sporadic Israeli attacks on the city’s southern suburbs persists.

Israeli ground and aerial operations in southern Lebanon, particularly in South, Nabatieh and parts of Bekaa governorates, will continue as Israel seeks to degrade Hizbullah’s operational capacity there. These operations will prolong security risks for civilians, increasing the likelihood of casualties and damage to critical infrastructure in affected areas.

Israel-Lebanon negotiations

Further US-brokered negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese representatives are likely to continue over the coming weeks. However, fundamental divergences in Israeli and Hizbullah objectives will continue to hinder progress. Israel’s hardline stance, centred on consolidating a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and degrading Hizbullah’s capabilities, reduces the likelihood of a comprehensive near-term cessation of hostilities. Hizbullah remains firmly opposed to Israeli demands for disarmament and continues to frame Israel’s ongoing military presence in Lebanon as justification for maintaining its armed activities.

Context

Since the ceasefire’s introduction on 16-17 April, Israel has maintained a military presence in southern Lebanon and has established the yellow line, which stretches around three to six miles (5-10km) from the Israeli border into Lebanon.

Most Israeli ground operations remain concentrated within the yellow line and include demolitions, artillery shelling, land-clearing operations and airstrikes on alleged rocket-launching pads in border areas. However, Israeli forces also periodically conduct incursions beyond the line further into Lebanese territory. These ground operations are accompanied by an aerial campaign focusing on South, Nabatieh, parts of Bekaa and periodically affecting Beirut.