Asia & the Pacific | Regional | Update

Level: Advisory
Location: China, Hong Kong (China SAR), Macao (China SAR); Taiwan (China)
Category: Flood, Storm, Landslide, Road disruption

Exercise caution and follow official directives over the coming days due to adverse weather. China’s National Meteorological Centre (NMC) has forecast moderate to heavy rainfall until at least 14 June in south-western and southern provinces of China and Taiwan (China). On 9 June, heavy-to-torrential rain was reported in parts of Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and Yunnan provinces, and in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (GZAR). Adverse weather is liable to cause transport disruption, landslides, flooding and damage to infrastructure.

Advice

• Monitor the China Meteorological Administration website, the NMC website (both in Chinese Mandarin), provincial meteorological bureaus and emergency response departments’ websites, as well as Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration (CWA), for information on the latest warnings and forecasts. Be prepared to adjust itineraries accordingly and follow all official directives.
• Assess your adverse weather-related contingency measures and vulnerabilities particularly for flooding if near coastal, low-lying, riverine, mountainous and poorly drained areas. Consider relocating early if you are in flood-prone areas, with projected torrential-to-very heavy rainfall or localised heavy rainfall.
• We do not hold specific information on transport methods, including flights. Contact the relevant transport provider to reconfirm bookings. In the event of any cancellations, your travel agency will be able to assist with alternative arrangements.
• Disruption to essential services, such as communications and power supply, is possible. Charge all communication devices and, if feasible, keep extra batteries for backup.
• Monitor our alerts for updates.

More detail

Impact

There have been no reports of casualties, widespread damage or large-scale power outages thus far. Seasonal heavy rainfall is forecast for parts of Tibet Autonomous Region, Hainan and Yunnan provinces and Taiwan, with localised but brief periods of torrential or extremely heavy rainfall likely. Heavy rainfall is forecast for parts of Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces and for the GZAR. Rainfall could reach up to seven inches (18cm) in some areas during the severe weather period.

On 8 June, heavy rainfall led to flooding in Guizhou province, with Changshun, Qianxi and Zunyi the most affected areas. The authorities have reportedly evacuated up to 10,000 residents from high-risk areas as a precautionary measure. In Chongqing, the Meijiang River has overflowed, causing flooding and rendering roads impassable in Hechuan district.

In Taiwan, torrential rain warnings are in place for Kaohsiung City. Meanwhile, extremely heavy rain warnings are in place for parts of Changhua, Chiayi, Miaioli, Nantou, Pingtung, Yunlin counties and Taichung City.

Level: Notice
Location: Bangladesh; India; Nepal; Sri Lanka
Category: Conflict, Infrastructure outage, Transport disruption, Civil unrest

Abide by all government directives in South Asia over the coming weeks due to the impact of ongoing conflict in the Middle East (see related alerts). Governments in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have introduced austerity measures, such as reduced working weeks, to manage fuel consumption. In India, the government has recommended measures such as working from home (WFH) and reducing fuel use and overseas travel. Disruption to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz has affected fuel prices and aggravated strain on supply chains and distribution networks. Expect localised protests by trade unions, transport operators and opposition parties over the coming weeks.

Advice

• Follow all official directives. Monitor official government channels (Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka) or reach out to your nearest International SOS Assistance Centre for verified updates on fuel conservation or related advisories.
• Check fuel availability with local contacts and account for additional time due to anticipated queues in urban centres, particularly in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Refill your vehicle’s tank when possible. Ensure you have adequate supply for planned journeys, especially intercity travel. Opt for carpooling wherever feasible.
• Reconfirm scheduled business appointments and those at government offices in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka due to reduced work week/timings.
• Avoid anticipated protests in urban centres as a precaution.
• Monitor our alerts for updates.

More detail

All times shown below are local.

Impact

Uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict and its impact on South Asian countries has triggered queues at fuel stations, panic buying and increased commodity prices. Although some governments have imposed restrictions related to fuel purchase or business operating hours, the scale and frequency of social unrest have been limited. Major commercial airlines have also revised their schedules (including reduced the daily volume of international travel) and increased flight costs to account for operational constraints.

Bangladesh

The government on 1 June again raised fuel prices following an increase in April. It also announced a 30% reduction in fuel, power and gas expenditure for its offices. In addition, electricity prices were also raised by around 16%, prompting intermittent protests by opposition parties.

Moreover, business hours for government/private offices have been limited to 09.00-16.00 from Sunday to Thursday. Banks restricted transaction services to 10.00-15.00 and closures by 16.00. Shopping centres must close by 19.00, though food outlets, pharmacies and other essential services will remain open.

On 18 May, the World Bank approved a $350m loan to Bangladesh to support liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

Nepal

The government has moved its offices and educational institutions to a five-day work week, i.e. Monday-Friday, from 09.00 to 17.00. Reports indicate that construction work has also been disrupted due to diesel and bitumen shortages.

India

India has remained broadly resilient to the conflict’s primary ramifications as its the world’s third-largest oil refiner and fourth-largest exporter of petroleum products. However, rising global prices have led state-run companies to increase petrol and diesel prices by up to three rupees per litre and compressed natural gas (CNG) prices by two rupees per kilogram, marking the first increase in four years.

The government on 8 June that India maintains 76-80 days’ worth of oil, gas and coal reserves and directed state companies to build a 30-day Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) reserve. In March, the government invoked the Essential Commodities Act to prioritise domestic use of LPG, CNG and piped natural gas (PNG) over commercial usage. This move triggered intermittent work stoppages by hotel and restaurant associations but no related protests occurred.

Fuel price increases have triggered intermittent demonstrations by opposition parties, transport unions and trade groups, though disruption has been limited. The All-India Trade Union Congress has warned of major protests if prices remain elevated.

Meanwhile, authorities in the capital New Delhi and Tripura, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal states have announced austerity measures. These include work-from-home directives for government institutions, reduced official convoys, increased use of public transport and virtual court hearings. Some petrol stations in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Kerala states and Chandigarh union territory have issued temporary fuel purchase limit during rush hours on a discretionary basis to manage crowds.

Sri Lanka

The government announced price hikes for petrol, diesel and octane on 31 May after the International Monetary Fund released financial assistance and called for recovery of rising energy costs. It has announced economic relief measures, including subsidies for electricity usage, fertilisers and fuel, until July. Fuel rationing measures remain in force, including a QR code system and issuance of fuel on an odd-even basis. Vehicles are also subject to weekly fuel quotas. Private light motor vehicles are limited to four gallons (15 litres) of fuel per week.

Reports indicate that bus fares could increase by at least 20% in the coming weeks. Transport unions have repeatedly demanded fare rises following the fuel price increase.

The government maintained increased energy tariffs but announced relief to consumers using fewer than 90 units. It stated that intermittent power disruption are manageable, though outages are likely as summer demand rises.

Meanwhile, a four-day work week remains in place for government offices, mandating Wednesday as a public holiday until further notice. The authorities have said that fuel stocks are sufficient until August.

Outlook

Prolonged supply chain disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to increase pressure on South Asian countries over the coming weeks. Price controls, fuel subsidies and tax cuts are unsustainable for these developing economies over the medium-to-long term due to the heavy fiscal burden. The region’s significant dependency on the Middle East for fertiliser importation will negatively affect agricultural produce and food security. Countries such as Nepal that have limited domestic agricultural production are liable to experience a disproportionate impact. As a result, the likelihood of fuel price hikes to offset daily commercial losses is high.

In India, austerity measures will reflect a binary approach in the short term, with a mandated order for government offices and recommendations for private companies and locals. However, several industries with large office-based workforces can be further encouraged to implement hybrid work measures and support fuel conservation. In line with our assessment, the government will likely opt for gradual increases instead of a steep rise to minimise inflationary pressure and domestic discontent. However, fuel price hikes will trickle down and increase the costs of transport, logistics and essential commodities such as food.

Any increase in fuel prices will prompt limited protests and strikes, particularly in urban centres. Opposition parties, Left-wing groups and affiliated trade unions will stage demonstrations. Demands for public transport fare increases is also likely to trigger small-scale strikes and protests. A weak monsoon (due to the Super El Nino climate phenomenon) can also aggravate impact on crops, prompting calls for compensation and relief packages by farmers’ unions. In Bangladesh, there is a persistent risk of localised unrest near fuel outlets in semi-urban and rural areas.

Context

South Asian countries’ heavy reliance on the Middle East for crude oil has increased oil prices and costs across various sectors. Around 80% of crude oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz is marked for Asian countries, with India one of the top three importers. In addition, Bangladesh and India import almost two-thirds of LNG from the Middle East.

India has largely been insulated in comparison to its neighbouring nations. It capitalised its domestic refining capacity and diversified import options to sustain supply and assisted Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka with refined fuel and petroleum products.

Level: Notice
Location: Cambodia; Thailand
Category: Conflict, Diplomatic issue, Border disruption, Protest/Rally

Travel to HIGH-risk areas within 16-30 miles (25-50km) of the Cambodia-Thailand border can proceed with robust journey management planning. Thailand has agreed to join a UN arbitration process to resolve the maritime boundary demarcations. However, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul stated that other bilateral border talks with Cambodia will not take place while the maritime arbitration is under way. Both militaries maintain their positions in the EXTREME-risk areas within 16 miles of the joint border, sustaining tensions in the contested areas. Despite routine accusations of ceasefire violations, expect troops to show restraint in the use of military force.

Advice

Inbound travel to Cambodia and Thailand (except border provinces)

• Air travel can proceed to Cambodia and Thailand with routine security preparation, other than for Thai and Cambodian nationals, respectively. We do not have information on specific flight schedules and airport operations. Contact the relevant operator/authorities for further information.
• Do not act upon unverified information and triangulate your information sources. Keep abreast of developments by liaising with credible in-country sources, diplomatic missions and security networks, including International SOS.
• Monitor the websites and social media pages of the Thai government’s public relations department, government information centre, foreign ministry and tourism authority pages, as well as Cambodia’s foreign ministry and information ministry pages, for updates on security and travel advisories.

Inbound travel to Cambodia-Thailand border provinces

• Defer all travel to the EXTREME-risk areas within 16 miles of the shared border.
• Travel to the HIGH-risk districts within 16-30 miles of the border can proceed following:
• An itinerary-, location- and profile-specific risk assessment and a comprehensive security briefing. Foreign nationals should check with their diplomatic representation for travel advisories which could impact their insurance coverage.
• Confirmed access to a trusted local contact or a security provider able to provide locally sourced, up-to-date information and assist with transport and accommodation in case of an escalation.
• Ensure access to primary and secondary modes of telecommunication (mobile with different SIM cards, different messaging platforms, fixed-line phone, pagers and emails) and test emergency communications protocols.

Thai nationals travelling to/through Cambodia and vice versa

• Defer non-essential travel until further notice. Prior to essential travel, conduct a self-assessment of your risk tolerance and check with the local host and diplomatic representation as to their recommendation. Contact an Assistance Centre for a profile- and itinerary-specific risk assessment and security briefing prior to travel. Account for limited diplomatic support and have access to realistic escalation and evacuation plans.
• If you do not have robust logistical support, restrict travel beyond national capitals – Bangkok (Thailand) and Phnom Penh (Cambodia) – and major urban centres outside of the risk zones.
• Thai nationals should avoid booking international flights which transit through Cambodia, and vice versa.

In-country workforce

• Minimise non-essential movement within the EXTREME-risk zone of the border, especially where there are military assets and critical infrastructure. Conduct all road movements during daylight hours and do not leave sealed roads or pavements due to unexploded ordnance and landmines. Follow all official directives, including travel restrictions.
• All workforce in the EXTREME-risk zone should have defined triggers for a domestic evacuation. Confirm access to local logistics support and a security provider who would facilitate road movement towards the provincial capital or nearest urban centre with an operational airport. Keep a grab bag ready (cash, valuables, identification documents, change of clothes, toiletries, emergency medication, power banks, high-energy/canned foods, drinking water) in case movement is required.
• If you do not intend to evacuate, assess your accommodation and its proximity to known conflict locations, military assets and critical infrastructure (power transmission facilities, telecommunications towers and hospitals). Ensure access to essentials (canned foods, sanitary items, emergency medications), backup power and water supplies to sustain a prolonged standfast period – up to 72 hours in urban areas and up to a week in rural locations.
• Avoid any nationalist gatherings as a precaution, including in border districts and in Bangkok and Phnom Penh. Do not photograph military personnel/premises or any critical infrastructure.
• Expect increased security checks at Thai ports in the coastal provinces. This is unlikely to impact passenger boats and ferry services.

Thai workforce in Cambodia and vice versa

• Non-essential Thai and Cambodian workforce, dependants and those with a low-risk appetite should conduct an individual risk assessment for their exposure and available support. Keep a grab bag ready in case an emergency relocation is required. In Thailand, they can move towards the nearest urban centre; in Cambodia, they should move to the capital.
• Maintain a low profile (in person and on social media). Do not wear garments that display flags, or consume Thai entertainment and products publicly in Cambodia, and vice versa.

More detail

Impact

On 5 May, Thailand unilaterally revoked Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) 44, which guided negotiations regarding exploration activity in disputed maritime areas. Thai officials stated that the cancellation follows a lack of mutually beneficial outputs and one-sided maritime disputes, alongside the recent stalled talks and tensions. Following its revocation, MoU 44 will be replaced by the legal framework under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Cambodia has announced its decision to undertake compulsory conciliation under UNCLOS to resolve the maritime dispute. While Thailand is a signatory of UNCLOS, it continues to reject international intervention and is expected to seek separate bilateral mechanisms to negotiate maritime boundary demarcations. It is therefore unlikely to participate in any negotiations with Cambodia under the compulsory conciliation mechanism, further stalling talks.

Meanwhile, an ad hoc Thai Senate committee has recently recommended scrapping the agreement on land border demarcation with Cambodia.

The mandate of the ASEAN Observer Team, the bloc’s peacekeeping and monitoring force, has been extended until July.

Outlook

Due to unresolved territorial disputes, we do not expect the combatant countries to recall troops or weapons systems to peacetime locations until the General Border Committee and Joint Boundary Commission meetings are held. Thailand has repeatedly said that the meetings will be held after Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s government is more stable and has made personnel appointments to the negotiating bodies.

The conflict is more likely to resume in areas where Thailand has ‘reclaimed’ territories or installed fencing in Cambodia-claimed locations. These include the borders of the following provinces:

• Buriram/Surin (Thailand) - Oddar Meanchey (Cambodia)
• Sisaket/Ubon Ratchathani (Thailand) - Oddar Meanchey/Preah Vihear (Cambodia)
• Sa Kaeo (Thailand) - Banteay Meanchey (Cambodia)
• Chanthaburi/Trat (Thailand) - Battambang (Cambodia)
• Trat (Thailand) - Pursat (Cambodia)

Land border crossings will remain closed for trade and people movement. Further airspace restrictions and negative impacts on commercial flights are unlikely.

Increased security buildup and infrequent incidents of small-arms gunfire are also likely along aforementioned border areas. However, these will be aimed at sustaining tensions along the border amid talks rather than triggering a possible escalation of conflict.

Meanwhile, the opaque information environment and distrust will persist, stoking nationalist rhetoric. These could prompt demonstrations in Bangkok and authorised gatherings in Phnom Penh.

Assessment

Thailand has stated that military operations will continue until it deems its sovereignty and territorial integrity to be unchallenged. Anutin is not likely to overrule military decisions and transnational organised crime compounds along the borders will continue to be used to maintain a security presence and keep the land border crossings closed. As such, a withdrawal of weapons or troops remains unlikely in the near term.

Thailand’s military and political intent align on its objectives to hold on to the regained contested territory and not allow international multilateral organisations to intervene. Therefore, it will be challenging for the bilateral JBC to agree on permanent territorial demarcations which will satisfy both parties.

A sustained conflict puts Cambodia at a disadvantage since Thailand has a much stronger military and larger economy. Its ratification of UNCLOS and joining the Board of Peace are perceived as attempts to internationalise the conflict. Moreover, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet is consolidating his political legitimacy and will not cede culturally significant disputed temple sites, which are tied to ideas of national sovereignty. The military escalation serves as a distraction from internal economic challenges and reinforces the Hun family’s image as protectors of the country.

Some escalatory triggers include:

• Fresh landmine explosions (not met)
• Military clashes resume in EXTREME-risk border areas (not met)
• JBC is cancelled (not met)
• Violent protests at the Thai embassy in Cambodia or the Cambodian embassy in Thailand (not met)
• Nationalist sentiment leads to attacks on Cambodian nationals/businesses in Thailand or Thai nationals/businesses in Cambodia (not met)
• Visa suspensions or deportations of Cambodian nationals from Thailand and vice versa (not met).

Advice for managers

• Cambodian organisations in Thailand, and vice versa, should review the activation triggers for the corporate crisis management team and linked response. Review the levels of exposure by location of assets, operations (urban, rural, border areas) and workforce nationality. Ensure that verifiable information is available and shared. Be circumspect during public discussions to avoid being perceived as anti-national.
• Account for all workforce in border provinces and for Thai/Cambodian foreign workforce. Differentiate between essential and non-essential workforce and their risk tolerance. Consider the extent of the organisation’s obligations in the event of an evacuation. Notify them of the level of evacuation preparedness and journey management required within the EXTREME- and HIGH-risk zones.
• Thai nationals in Cambodia, and vice versa, should have access to secure accommodation and on-site guarding arrangements, where required. Ensure that workforce and their dependants have up-to-date passports and visas and that manifests are up to date and on hand. Those with a limited risk tolerance should consider relocation to a city with access to an airport or back to their home country. Evacuation plans should consider the current operational challenges related to closure of land border crossings, fuel supplies disruption and aviation fare hikes, as well as the likelihood that movement challenges will become more pronounced if tensions escalate.
• Monitor domestic rhetoric to gauge the level of bilateral tensions and nationalist sentiments affecting the operating environment for business. Ensure business-continuity, site-shutdown and evacuation plans are adjusted accordingly and account for further contingencies. Identify actionable steps, such as the need to suspend or resume business activities, diversify supply lines and stock up on raw materials, or even for workforce to relocate.

Level: Notice
Location: Brunei; Cambodia; Indonesia; Laos; Malaysia; Myanmar; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; Vietnam
Category: Natural Hazards, Infrastructure outage, Transport disruption

Maintain flexible itineraries and expect intermittent weather-related disruption to travel and essential services in Southeast Asia until at least November. The south-west monsoon season in Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam typically lasts until October. Meanwhile, the north-west Pacific tropical storm (typhoon) season is forecast to peak between mid-June and October-November. Prolonged periods of rainfall, strong winds and thunderstorms impact travel, transport and essential infrastructure, even in major urban centres. Routinely monitor meteorological updates prior to travel and reconfirm the location and / or route’s susceptibility to weather-related disruption.

Advice

• Monitor seasonal forecasts and multi-country weather systems on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) and the US Navy and Air Force’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) websites. Check daily and weekly weather advisories and typhoon-related warnings on the meteorological websites of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Follow all official directives, including any to stay indoors or evacuate.
• Maintain flexible travel itineraries as heavy rain, strong wind and poor visibility will lead to short-notice flight/railway/public transport delays or cancellations. Ensure all transport and accommodation bookings are modifiable and refundable. We do not hold information on transport schedules. Contact service providers and travel agents directly to confirm transport schedules.
• Reconfirm the feasibility of road travel with local contacts before setting out and map out the route to avoid crossing areas prone to landslides and flooding. Ensure that your vehicle is in good condition and appropriately equipped for the weather conditions and the terrain. Do not drive in poor visibility conditions. Keep a grab-bag with essentials (high-energy food, drinking water, emergency medication, flashlight, portable charger or battery pack, and rain gear) in the vehicle.
• Strong winds and heavy rainfall disrupt the power grid, water supply and telecommunications networks. Ensure your accommodation has back-up power and water supply. Charge all communications devices and, where feasible, keep portable chargers and extra batteries for backup.
• Contact International SOS Assistance Centres for a pre-trip location- and itinerary-specific briefing tailored as per your risk appetite. Have clear escalation triggers and contact details of the local disaster response authorities. Monitor our alerts for updates.

More detail

Impact

Typhoons are characterised by strong winds, sea surge and heavy rainfall, impacting coastal areas, islands and maritime communities. Their passage poses significant security and humanitarian risks to the immediate area (‘eye’ and ‘cone of influence’ of the typhoon). Monsoons bring widespread heavy rain, flash flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying, mountainous or riverine areas, especially where the soil cover has degraded or drainage is poor.

In the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, typhoons will also interact with the monsoon and result in short periods of torrential rain and storm surges in locations outside their immediate path.

Along with causing material damage to buildings, roads and other infrastructure, strong winds and heavy rains cause significant travel and transport disruption. They are also likely to impede road access to transport hubs, the nearest port of departure or major urban centres, complicating evacuation and rescue efforts. The risk of waterlogging will be more pronounced in low-lying and riverine areas, particularly where unplanned urbanisation has degraded the soil cover.

Forecast

The ASMC has forecast below- to near-normal rainfall over much of southern ASEAN region (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, southern Philippines, Singapore and southern Thailand) in June, with below-normal rainfall continuing until August. At the same time, northern ASEAN region (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, northern Philippines, northern Thailand and Vietnam), is forecast to experience a range of rainfall levels until August.

This coincides with the development of the El Nino weather phenomenon in June, which will intensify by October-December. A stronger El Nino equates to less rainfall and higher temperatures, with drought-like conditions likely to emerge in 2027.

These conditions are conducive to typhoon formation in the north-west Pacific and are more likely to move towards North Asia. Around 9-13 typhoons will enter the Philippines Area of Responsibility from June to November, with peak activity in July-September.

Assessment

Disruption to logistics and supply chain is highly likely during peak rainfall periods, particularly in flood-prone areas and on hilly terrain. The number of travel-related incidents, including road accidents, increases, especially in poorly lit or unpaved areas. Emergency services personnel are likely to be delayed while travelling to isolated or waterlogged locations.

Continued weather monitoring and pre-emptive action are crucial in mitigating the risks posed to workforce and assets. Challenges to the fuel supply due to the Middle East conflict (see separate alert) and the increased cost of living will directly impact the government’s disaster response and relief capabilities.

The post-disaster recovery period is likely to be prolonged in countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia where the governments are under fiscal pressure. Weather-related disruption and these challenges will exacerbate the triggers for anti-government unrest, as evidenced by the nationwide protests in the Philippines in late 2025.

Advice for managers

• Assess the typhoon and flood exposure of worksites, accommodations and key infrastructure, especially in coastal areas and urban low-lying zones. Conduct tabletop exercises to ensure escalation plans for disaster preparedness – including clearly defined triggers for flexible working arrangements and evacuating, alternative communications protocols – are understood, updated and rapidly implementable.
• Review business-continuity plans and ensure they are realistic and ready to be implemented at short notice. Maintain close contact with external support providers (including International SOS) and ensure management, internal stakeholders and workforce are fully informed of the situation.
• Ensure that all sites have stand-fast capability for at least 48 hours, including adequate supplies of food, drinking water, medical supplies, backup power and fuel, reliable communications systems, and access to emergency contact lists.
• Workforce travelling during this period should maintain flexible itineraries and have access to weather-resilient accommodation with back-up power and essentials such as food, water and medicine. Liaise with the local authorities and transport partners to confirm road and air travel viability during periods of adverse weather. Restrict access or enforce robust journey management requirements for up to 48 hours to a location impacted by a typhoon’s passage.

Level: Notice
Location: American Samoa (US); Australia; Cook Islands; East Timor; Fiji; French Polynesia (France); Kiribati; Micronesia; Nauru; New Zealand; New Caledonia (France); Northern Mariana Islands (US); Palau; Papua New Guinea; Samoa; Solomon Islands; Tonga; Tuvalu; Vanuatu; Wallis and Futuna (France); Marshall Islands
Category: Conflict, Infrastructure outage, Transport disruption, Diplomatic issue

Monitor developments related to fuel supplies over the coming weeks in Australia, New Zealand and Pacific countries due to the impact of the Middle East conflict (see related alerts). Rising fuel costs and potential supply issues could intensify socio-economic strain, increasing the possibility of transport disruption, strikes and protests. Aviation operations have been affected, with reduced capacity on some routes. Disruption to fuel supplies will likely continue amid US-Iran negotiations and the increasingly uncertain security environment in the Middle East.

Advice

• Our inbound and in-country travel advice for Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific remains unchanged in relation to the Middle East conflict. Consult our Travel Security Guides for country-specific information and advice.
• Keep abreast of developments linked to fuel supplies and energy-conservation measures. Monitor official government channels or reach out to your nearest International SOS Assistance Centre for verified updates. Do not act on unverified information. Follow official directives.
• Check fuel availability and prices with local contacts. Expect queues at fuel stations and refill your vehicle’s tank when possible. Ensure you have adequate fuel supply for planned journeys, especially intercity travel.
• Maintain access to reliable means of communication and ensure that critical electronic devices, such as mobile phones and laptops, are always fully charged.
• Protests are liable to erupt at short notice. Liaise with local contacts for information on related developments and protests in your vicinity. Although most protests are likely to pass off peacefully, avoid all such gatherings as a precaution and leave an area at the first sign of unrest. Monitor our alerts for updates.

More detail

Impact

Australia

On 15 April, a fire broke out at a refinery in Geelong (Victoria state), which is currently operating at 60% capacity for petrol and 80% for diesel and jet fuel. However, capacity is expected to return to over 90% in the coming weeks.

The Australian government has enacted Level Two of its National Fuel Security Plan. While overall supply remains stable, the government has released 20% of baseline minimum stock and has also introduced measures to combat price gouging. The fuel excise will end on 30 June, likely leading to a temporary surge in fuel costs. Some domestic airline routes have been reduced or suspended due to rising fuel costs. There have been no protests associated with fuel price increases thus far.

Cook Islands

The country remains highly vulnerable to disruption of fuel supplies, briefly falling to 20 days of fuel cover in late March. Flights have been cancelled due to the rising cost of aircraft fuel, which will likely increase economic pressure on the tourism-dependent economy. However, no protests have been reported or announced thus far.

East Timor

The government is actively considering load-shedding to the electricity grid to cut costs amid fuel price hikes, though the measure has not yet been introduced. This may mean nightly planned power outages.

Fiji

Fiji has experienced no fuel shortages, though farmers are actively considering not harvesting crops due to rising fuel costs for agricultural machinery. Similarly, truck companies have warned that rising fuel prices may limit operations, impacting the food supply chain..

In recent months, sharp price increases in fuel have led to long queues at petrol stations. The government has activated the National Fuel Emergency Action Plan, which has introduced phased consumption and storage limits. Flights have yet to be significantly disrupted. There have been no protests reported or announced thus far.

Marshall Islands

On 26 March, the government declared a 90-day nationwide state of emergency in a bid to conserve government fuel usage. This has seen measures such as the shutting down of most government offices at 15.00 (local time) daily. Since then, fuel prices have increased.

New Zealand

The government introduced phase one of its National Fuel Plan 2026. This includes stock updates through the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment website. The government will also expand diesel storage capacity to ensure long-term supply. Rising jet fuel costs have forced some carriers to cancel domestic and international flights. A protest on 1 April regarding fuel prices passed off peacefully.

Northern Mariana Islands (US)

Austerity measures have been introduced to reduce government fuel consumption and operational costs. There have been no reports of protests or announcements thus far.

Palau

According to media reports, some regional leaders, including the Palau government, invoked the Biketawa Declaration on 17 April. The declaration represents the region’s emergency response mechanism to implement unified regional conservation measures.

Papua New Guinea

No nationwide shortages have been reported thus far, but the government has indicated risks to the three-month fuel reserves. The government implemented financial measures to build stock. Arrangements have been discussed with Australia and the US. Although there have been no protests related to the price surge of fuel, it is likely to exacerbate existing economic inequities.

Samoa

On 4 June, the government shifted the country’s fuel crisis response to an amber alert (second-highest on a three-tier scale). The Disaster Advisory Committee (DAC) indicated that the alert was issued as a precautionary step with 55 and 54 days of diesel and petrol fuel reserves available, respectively.

Earlier in the crisis, a Petroleum Task Force was activated to monitor fuel distribution and stock levels. There is no shortage of fuel thus far, with pre-crisis fuel contracts shielding it from supply issues.

Solomon Islands

The prime minister activated the Biketawa Declaration on 17 April. On 22 April, the national carrier announced reduced flight operations. It will also introduce a temporary domestic fuel levy.

Tonga

Tonga reportedly agreed to the Biketawa Declaration on 17 April. It has activated Level 1 of its emergency response framework, tackling price gouging and conducting daily reviews of fuel reserves.

Tuvalu

On 13 April, the government declared a two-week state of emergency on Funafuti island in response to potential fuel and electricity supply shortages. The declaration allows the government significant powers to control fuel supplies and transport. It also increases the possibility of potential fuel rationing measures.

Vanuatu

Contingency measures were put in place in late March to ensure uninterrupted fuel supply to essential industries.

Outlook

Following failed US-Iranian peace talks, volatility and military activity in the Middle East will likely continue over the coming weeks. For the region, this means supply chain security remains uncertain. In the long term, the effects of the conflict on fuel markets are likely to have an ongoing impact on travel and client operations, though this will vary between countries.

There was an initial reduction in crude oil prices following the 8 April ceasefire agreement. However, prices have since risen due to failed peace talks and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Should an agreement eventually be reached, it will likely take time to filter through to Pacific fuel markets. Furthermore, shipping costs are likely to remain high even if a new ceasefire holds. This is due to ‘toll booth’ operations in the Strait of Hormuz, US blockades on vessels transiting through Iranian ports and insurance premiums remaining elevated.

Context

Regional countries are overwhelmingly reliant on refined fuel imports, with the region importing around 90% of its liquid fuel. Most of these imports come from the Southeast Asia region, where Singapore serves as the essential energy hub for refining Middle Eastern crude oil into petrol, diesel and aircraft fuel. However, a significant portion of Singapore’s crude oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with countries in the region vulnerable to relying on both locations' operations.

Furthermore, given their remote geographic situation, most Pacific countries are at the end of long shipping supply chains, increasing freight and transportation costs. Despite movements towards renewable energy in recent years, most countries remain tied to fossil fuel-based energy sources, especially diesel, for between 49 and 80% of their electricity generation.

Assessment

Impacts will vary from country to country in the region. General, regionwide indicators that suggest a deterioration in the situation include, though are not limited to:

Fuel-supply and price indicators

• Sustained increases in fuel prices at the national level
• Widespread closures and fuel shortages at petrol stations
• Significant transport disruption, including reduced travel and supply-chain networks
• Long queues and congestion at petrol stations
• Panic buying and reported incidents of fuel hoarding
• Infrastructure outages impacting commercial and domestic consumers

Socio-economic indicators

• Sharp increase in costs for essential goods, including staple food items and fuel
• Reports of violence at petrol stations
• Large-scale demonstrations in response to fuel-supply shortages or price increases, which may be accompanied by rioting and looting
• Industrial action, particularly among transport unions or energy-sector workers

Government and regulatory indicators

• Formal declaration of energy emergencies or nationwide conservation measures
• Implementation of electricity rationing or rolling blackouts
• Deployment of the security forces to fuel stations or critical infrastructure
• Introduction or expansion of fuel subsidies or price controls.

Advice for managers

• Take stock of fuel and energy supplies. Update business-continuity and escalation plans to account for prolonged shortages and associated logistical disruption.
• Be prepared for remote working measures by identifying essential and non-essential workforce, commuter routes and business operations.
• Brief workforce on the impact of fuel shortages and price increases on daily activities such as access to motor fuel, cooking fuel or potential power disruption. Ensure workforce are able to work remotely if required.
• Account for secondary impacts on the security environment, including protests and heightened security at fuel stations. Ensure workforce have up-to-date information on potential demonstrations so they can plan in advance to avoid them.

Level: Notice
Location: Singapore; Johor state - Malaysia
Category: Border disruption, Road disruption

Allow additional time for journeys until 28 June through the Tuas and Woodlands border checkpoints with Malaysia ahead of the holiday period. Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) has forecast an increase in vehicular traffic during the school holiday period. This increase is also expected ahead of the upcoming Islamic holiday of Hari Raya Haji (also known as Eid al-Adha, 27 May) and the Buddhist festival of Vesak Day (1 June). Additionally, longer waiting periods can be expected as heightened security measures have been enforced across all checkpoints amid Middle East conflict (see related alerts). Workforce should ensure they have valid passports, entry permits to prevent delays and follow all official directives.

Advice

• We do not have specific information on travel times. Monitor the ICA website for the latest travel advisories for the Tuas and Woodlands checkpoints. For real-time traffic updates, call the CHECK-TIPS hotline (6863 0117) or monitor the live traffic cameras at One Motoring.
• Use public transport to reduce traffic congestion. Check MyTransport.SG app or the bus operators’ websites for frequency and schedule of buses.
• Motorists should use QR codes instead of passports for faster immigration clearance. More information is available on the ICA website.
• Expect a heightened security force presence at the checkpoints during the holiday periods. Ensure your passport, vehicle registration, entry and re-entry permits are valid and updated. Follow all official directives.
• Monitor our alerts for updates.

Level: Notice
Location: Bangladesh; Bhutan; India; Maldives; Nepal; Sri Lanka
Category: Storm, Landslide, Flood, Transport disruption

Expect intermittent disruption to travel and essential services in parts of South Asia until at least September during the south-west monsoon season. The season typically begins around the end of May in India, Maldives and Sri Lanka, and by June in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. Monsoons also coincide with the North Indian Ocean cyclone season, which peaks from May to early November. Flooding frequently occurs after extended periods of rainfall, especially in low-lying areas, and can also affect major urban centres with poor drainage. Maintain flexible itineraries and monitor updates from meteorological agencies and local contacts to reconfirm the feasibility of travel.

Advice

• Monitor seasonal forecasts, regular weather advisories and cyclone-related warnings on the meteorological department websites of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Follow all official directives, including any evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
• Reconfirm the feasibility of overland journeys with local contacts before setting out and avoid surge-prone or flooded areas. Ensure that your vehicle is in good condition and appropriately equipped for the weather conditions. Do not attempt to drive in poor visibility conditions. Do not drive across flooded roads, landslide- and surge-prone areas.
• Heavy rain and poor visibility may cause short-notice flight/railway/public transport delays or cancellations. We do not hold specific information on transport schedules. Contact the relevant service providers directly to confirm schedules.
• Essential services such as electricity and communications may be disrupted by severe rainfall. Ensure your accommodation has back-up power and water supply. Charge all communications devices and, where feasible, keep portable chargers and extra batteries for backup.
• Monitor our alerts for updates.

More detail

Impact

Monsoons bring widespread heavy rain, flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying, mountainous and riverine areas.

Forecasts

Below-normal rainfall is forecast for most parts of South Asia. However, there is a chance of normal to above-normal precipitation in the north-eastern, north-western, extreme southern parts of the region.

In Bangladesh, the season is forecast to continue until September.

In India the south-west monsoon advance into the South Andaman Sea, parts of the south-east Bay of Bengal and the Nicobar Islands (Andaman and Nicobar union territory) by end of May. The India Meteorological Department has forecast that the monsoon will cover India’s northernmost states by end of June. The south-west monsoon made landfall in the southern state of Kerala on 4 June.

Nepal is expecting a below-normal monsoon, mainly due to increasing likelihood of El Nino conditions.

Sri Lanka’s ‘yala' monsoon season in May-September will affect the south-west, including the commercial capital Colombo (Western province). The forecast for the country is near-normal rainfall in most parts of the country, with below normal rainfall over North Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts (Coth central province).

Flashpoints

High-risk locations in Bangladesh include coastal areas, such as Bagerhat (Khulna division), Barishal and Bhola (both Barishal division). Flat and low-lying plains such as Brahmanbaria, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Cumilla (all Chattogram division) and Habiganj (Sylhet division) are also liable to be affected.

Bhutan and Nepal’s mountainous terrains make them susceptible to rainfall-induced landslides, affecting road travel and cutting off entire population centres.

Urban centres in India such as the capital New Delhi, Bengaluru (Bangalore, Karnataka state) and Mumbai (Maharashtra state) are vulnerable to flooding due to their inadequate drainage systems. Rural regions may experience longer-term isolation and infrastructural damage.

Rough seas in the Maldives can impede movement between islands.

In Sri Lanka, flooding and landslides mainly affect western and south-western areas, including Galle, Matara (both Southern province) and Gampaha (Western) districts. Rivers such as Kalu, Kelani, Mahaweli, Malvathu, Walawe and Yan Oya regularly overflow during periods of heavy rain.

Assessment

Logistics and supply chain disruption is probable during peak rainfall periods, particularly in flood-prone corridors and hilly terrain. Adverse weather may also affect flight schedules at major airports. Road transport and inter-city travel will be subject to short-notice suspensions during periods of severe weather.

Travel-related incidents, including road accidents, may increase, especially in poorly lit or unpaved areas. Emergency services personnel may be delayed while travelling to isolated or waterlogged locations. Continued weather monitoring and pre-emptive action will be crucial in mitigating the risks posed to workforce and assets.

Advice for managers

• Assess the flood exposure of worksites, accommodation and key infrastructure, especially in urban low-lying zones. Conduct tabletop exercises to ensure escalation plans for disaster preparedness – including clearly defined triggers for flexible working arrangements and evacuating, as well as alternative communications protocols – are understood, updated and rapidly implementable.
• Review business-continuity plans, ensuring they are realistic and ready to be implemented at short notice. Maintain close contact with external support providers (including International SOS) and ensure management, internal stakeholders and workforce are fully informed of the situation.
• Ensure all sites have stand-fast capability for at least 72 hours, including adequate supplies: food, drinking water, medical supplies, backup power and fuel, reliable communications systems and access to emergency contact lists.
• Workforce travelling during this period should maintain flexible itineraries and have access to weather-resilient accommodation with back-up power and essentials such as food, water and medicine. Liaise with the local authorities and transport partners to confirm road and air travel viability during periods of adverse weather.

Level: Advisory
Location: Cambodia; Indonesia; Laos; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; Vietnam
Category: Infrastructure outage, Transport disruption, Protest/Rally

Follow all government directives in Southeast Asia over the coming weeks due to the impact of the Middle East conflict (see related alerts). Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have either directed or recommended rostering changes or flexible work arrangements to reduce fuel consumption. Around 400 fuel stations in Cambodia, Laos and some sites in north-western Thailand’s border districts have closed. Disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has impacted fuel prices, straining supply chains and transport networks and affecting organisations. Avoid related protests by transport unions, citizens’ groups and activists as a precaution.

Advice

• Monitor official government channels (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) or reach out to your nearest International SOS Assistance Centre for verified updates on energy conservation measures and fuel-related impact. Follow official directives.
• Check fuel availability and prices with local contacts. Expect queues at fuel stations and refill your vehicle’s tank when possible. Ensure you have adequate fuel supply for planned journeys, especially intercity travel.
• Reconfirm in-person business appointments and restrict non-essential road travel in private vehicles. Opt for public transport or carpooling. We do not hold information on specific transport schedules. Liaise with the appropriate authorities or your travel agent to confirm bookings.
• Avoid related protests in urban centres. In case of transport union strikes, pre-book private vehicles and reconfirm travel arrangements.
• Monitor our alerts for updates.

More detail

Impact

Queues at fuel stations and rising transport costs have been reported in most countries. Regional governments have encouraged organisations to adopt energy conservation measures and work-from-home (WFH) arrangements, enact measures to optimise logistical routes to reduce travel and move towards renewable energy sources.

A jet fuel shortage is expected to impact Southeast Asia by June, resulting in a decline in airline capacity and operations. Multiple regional carriers have announced increased ticket prices alongside cancellations and reductions in the frequency of services due to high fuel costs.

Indonesia

The authorities have completed the road trials for the nationwide rollout of the B50 biodiesel programme from 1 July to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports. Testing for maritime transportation is expected to finish by the end May, while trials for railway applications are targeted for completion in October.

The government has issued a WFH mandate every Friday for national and regional government employees, excluding public service providers, until at least 1 June. The Ministry of Manpower has also encouraged private sector companies to adopt similar measures.

The government announced a daily purchase limit of 13 gallons (50 litres) per vehicle for private consumers. However, the authorities do not plan to adjust the price of fuel and will not restrict fuel purchases for public transport vehicles. Reports indicate that vehicles with engine capacities above 1,400cc may no longer be eligible to purchase Pertalite, a subsidised fuel, from 1 June. State-owned energy company Pertamina is currently awaiting government guidance regarding the implementation of the policy.

Additionally, the authorities on 15 May increased the cap of fuel surcharge to 50% for aircrafts, leading to a rise in airfares. Rising aviation fuel costs have been reported by national carrier Garuda Indonesia. A VAT exemption for economy class tickets on domestic flights will be in effect until 26 June.

Approximately 60% of Indonesia’s fuel supply is comprised of imports. The authorities announced an agreement with Russia on 24 April that will see the import of 150m barrels of Russian crude oil. In addition, the government has announced the suspension of low-grade diesel fuel imports from 1 July, due to the launch of Indonesia’s biodiesel programme.

Long queues have been reported at petrol stations, and several outlets have run out of non‑subsidised fuel. Several provincial governments are also facing the issue of subsidised fuel. Central Kalimantan province also introduced a purchase limit of five-eight (20-33 litres) per vehicle for private consumers, depending on the fuel type.

Laos

More than 1,000 fuel stations have closed nationwide. Vientiane and Xiangkhouang provinces, where more than 50% of fuel stations are reported to be shut, have been most significantly affected. The Bus Rapid Transit network in the capital Vientiane has been expanded to connect with the China-Laos railway and Wattay International Airport (VTE).

Meanwhile, the government has intensified inspections of fuel importers and retailers under the Petroleum Business Decree and warned against illegal price rises in agricultural commodities. Import tax on standard-grade unleaded petrol has been reduced from 20% to 15% to stabilise retail prices. The government has also signed an agreement to switch to electrically powered trucks. However, the transition will most likely be a protracted process due to a lack of required charging infrastructure.

Malaysia

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that the government is currently reviewing the eligibility criteria for the recipients of fuel subsidies primarily within the higher-income groups.

The National Economic Action Council is reportedly reviewing the status of energy supplies every two days. Current fuel supplies are expected to last until the end of June.

Logistical issues linked to delivery of imports have caused disruption at fuel stations across multiple states, including Kedah, Kelantan, Penang, Perak, Perlis and Selangor.

The Finance Ministry has announced an increase in the retail prices of unsubsidised RON95 petrol and diesel by 20 Malaysian cents and 10 Malaysian cents per litre, respectively, while the price of RON97 will increase by 15 Malaysian cents from May 21 to 27.

A three-days-a-week WFH policy remains in effect for public sector employees, excluding those in health, education, security and defence sectors. This applies to employees living more than five miles (8km) from their workplaces in state capitals. The government’s measures to manage energy supply and limiting price shocks include a reduced monthly quota of subsidised RON95 fuel.

The police have been deployed along 151 petrol stations in high-risk areas along the borders to prevent the smuggling of fuel. Petronas, the state-owned oil company, has announced that fuel supply has been secured until the end of June.

Meanwhile, Batik Air Malaysia has announced a reduction in its scheduled flight operations. Additionally, AirAsia X has announced a 10% reduction of scheduled flights across the aviation group and an increase in air fares due to fuel surcharge rises.

Philippines

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr declared a one-year National State of Energy Emergency on 24 March to manage energy supply amid fuel shortages. Associated measures are likely to include fuel subsidies, diesel reserves and expedited approvals for energy projects. The Department of Energy has announced that the country’s fuel supply is expected to last until June.

On 20 May, the House of Representatives approved the Kalinga Act, aimed at enabling rapid government response to fuel inflation, energy supply risks and disruption to essential services.

On 13 April, the authorities implemented a programme to provide a minimum daily wage to public utility vehicle (PUV) drivers to support the transport sector. A total of 938 fuel stations nationwide have implemented the Fuel Subsidy Program (FSP) for eligible PUV and UV Express drivers to help absorb some of the impact of higher oil prices.

Earlier on 1 April, the Senate proposed the implementation of a retail fuel cap and rationing programmes. The Department of Energy has called for retailers to adjust prices according to the weekly fuel price ranges provided by the government. Adjusted fare increases previously approved for PUVs have been suspended, triggering protests from transport groups. Monitoring measures are in place at fuel stations.

The government has stated that preventative measures are being implemented to avoid an aviation fuel shortage. Surcharges for aviation fuel were raised on 23 April. Philippines Airlines and Cebu Pacific have announced the suspension of several routes until October.

The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) reduced the fuel surcharge from Level 19 to Level 15 until 31 May, indicating a reduction of airfares. The board is revising the fuel surcharge every 15 days.

A four-day on-site working week and a designated WFH day in executive government offices are already in effect, excluding agencies providing essential public health and safety emergency services. The local authorities announced the resumption of a free ride programme from 15 April in the capital Manila. On 13 April, Marcos Jr announced the suspension of the excise tax on liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene.

The Homefront Crisis Ministerial Committee has warned of an increase in food and fuel prices. Cooking gas prices have also risen, with broader fuel and electricity costs expected to remain elevated.

Singapore

While fuel prices have risen in Singapore, the government is yet to utilise its fuel reserves or introduce rationing measures.

Public transport use has been encouraged to reduce energy use. Additionally, government workers have been instructed to reduce air conditioning usage, and the public and businesses have also been advised to do so accordingly.

Thailand

Thailand’s oil reserves are expected to last until August, with current fuel prices subsidised by the country’s Oil Fuel Fund. Full WFH measures for government agencies are in place until further notice, with exemptions for agencies involved in public service delivery. Intermittent closures and fuel shortages have been reported at several gas stations, especially in border provinces. Myanmar-registered vehicles have been prohibited from refuelling, while purchase limit recommendations have been issued for Thai vehicles. In addition, the authorities have implemented reduced overnight services at petrol stations from 20 April, selling only B20 diesel and E20 petrol between 22.00 and 05.00 (local time). The Department of Energy Business has launched a website to help people to check the status of fuel stations in their respective area.

On 17 April, the government announced a financial assistance programme for diesel- and petrol-reliant transporters to limit price increases. While the state-owned energy supplier PTT is still operating refineries, it has implemented an emergency energy strategy as domestic fuel demand has tripled due to panic buying. Further restrictions will be imposed if oil consumption does not decrease. Fuel exports to countries other than Laos and Myanmar were previously banned. However, due to excess stockpiles of jet fuel the National Security Council (NSC) has approved the export to Philippines and Vietnam on request.

Fuel shortages have also affected the airline industry. Thai Airways, Thai AirAsia and Lion Air have announced reductions and cancellations in their flights, many until 30 September. Bangkok and Thai Airways have increased airfares.

The ongoing fuel crisis has exacerbated fuel smuggling throughout the country, worsening supply chain issues. The Land Transport Federation has called for the government to address and investigate reported irregularities in the supply chain.

Vietnam

The authorities are set to implement the roadmap for the mandatory nationwide use of E10 bio-gasoline from 1 June, as part of the clean energy transition strategy. The Domestic Market Management and Development Department has issued an official notice requesting gas stations make the switch. The Finance Ministry has also proposed new pricing mechanisms and tax incentives for the adoption of E10.

On 23 April, the authorities stated that Vietnam has implemented measures to maintain a stable fuel supply, including working with foreign partners.

Rail fares have risen, while more than 20 domestic flights have been cut per week from April due to a fuel shortage. However, the local authorities in the capital Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have announced proposals for free bus services to ease travel costs.

Furthermore, Bamboo Airways, VietJet Air, Vietnam Airlines and Vietravel Airlines have announced reductions in their flight schedules. On 17 April, the Civil Aviation Authority requested support from the China’s Civil Aviation Authority to maintain stable aviation fuel supplies. Organisations and individuals have been urged to stop panic buying and/or illegally stockpiling fuel. The government has suspended import taxes on fuel until 30 June.

Outlook

WFH measures will not affect the delivery of essential services and will be mandated by regional governments if the crisis deepens and national fuel supplies deplete. Once the academic year starts, the authorities will revisit these measures.

Expect governments to increase or cap electricity prices, as demand will increase over the coming months with the use of air-cooling units during summer. Rolling blackouts are likely to be implemented, affecting commercial and domestic consumers. Further national energy emergency declarations and related conservation measures are possible.

Anticipate heightened security deployments at fuel stations, as well as spot-checks of these premises and queuing vehicles to prevent hoarding and illegal price rises. Related protests are likely outside energy and transport ministry buildings, while demonstrators may seek to march towards Iranian, Israeli and US diplomatic missions. Fuel and electricity price increases and/or rationing are emotive issues, especially in the Philippines. Protests therefore carry an underlying risk of confrontations between participants and the security forces.

Expect fuel-sharing arrangements between Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states under the recently concluded Asean Petroleum Security Agreement framework. This allows members to supply oil to neighbouring states facing shortages of at least 10% of their domestic requirement.

Context

Southeast Asia, other than Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, is reliant on oil and gas imports from the Middle East. About 90% of crude and oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz is bound for Asia. There is disproportionate reliance on fossil fuels in the agriculture, electricity, industry and transport sectors. Although governments are taking measures to stabilise prices and manage their reserves, they are unable to keep up with increased demand due to panic buying. Temporary subsidies and price caps to assuage consumer concerns will have short-term socio-political and long-term budget impacts.