Ecuador | Latest developments | Update

Level: Advisory
Location: Ecuador
Category: Storm, Flood, Road disruption

Exercise caution and plan journeys on 9-10 June accounting for countrywide weather-related disruption. The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) has issued orange warnings (middle of a three-tier scale, meaning ‘high level’) of heavy rain and thunderstorms, effective until at least 10.00 (local time) on 10 June. This applies to parts of Azuay, Canar, Carchi, El Oro, Esmeraldas, Guayas, Imbabura, Morona Santiago, Napo, Orellana, Pastaza, Pichincha, Santo Domingo de los Tsachilas and Sucumbios provinces. Meanwhile, yellow warnings (lowest, meaning ‘medium level’) are in place for the remaining parts of the aforementioned provinces and most of the rest of the country.

Advice

• Monitor the INAMHI website (in Spanish) for up-to-date weather forecasts and related warnings.
• Liaise with local contacts to ascertain the status of roads and ensure that your vehicle is appropriately equipped for the adverse weather conditions before setting out.
• We do not hold specific information on transport schedules. Contact the relevant service provider to reconfirm schedules and plan journeys accordingly. In the event of cancellations or delays, your travel agent will be able to assist with alternative arrangements.
• Disruption to essential services, such as electricity supply, is possible. Ensure that all communications devices are charged and keep extra batteries for backup.
• Monitor our Ecuador alerts for updates.

Level: Notice
Location: Ecuador
Category: Violent crime, State of emergency, Police/security operation

Expect heightened security and exercise caution over the coming weeks despite the expiry of States of Emergency (SoEs). President Daniel Noboa has announced that he will not renew the SoEs that are in effect until 1 June. The security forces will continue to target criminal operations across the country, particularly in the capital Quito, as well as in El Oro, Esmeraldas, Guayas, Los Rios, Manabi, Pichincha, Santo Domingo de los Tsachilas, Santa Elena and Sucumbios provinces.

Advice

• Expect a heightened security presence in the areas that were previously under the SoEs. Follow all official directives.
• Continue exercising increased caution in HIGH-risk areas of Ecuador. Carefully plan all aspects of your itinerary, including accommodation, transport, communication and security arrangements, prior to travel. We suggest travelling in a private vehicle with a trusted driver and undertaking movement in daylight hours only. Plan journeys accounting for delays or mishaps, such as a breakdown. An itinerary-specific risk assessment is advised for travel to these areas.
• Crime remains a serious concern in the HIGH-risk provinces of Ecuador and criminals are often armed. If approached, comply without resistance to reduce the risk of violence.
• Leave an area immediately or shelter in a secure location, if safe to do so, should the security forces begin to gather or a shoot-out begin.
• Monitor our Ecuador alerts for updates.

More detail

Impact

The expiry of the SoEs fully re-establishes constitutional rights that were previously restricted, such as the right of assembly and protections against warrantless arrests. Curfews that were in effect until 18 May will also not be reinstated, re-establishing freedom of movement across the country at all times.

However, security operations against criminal groups will continue in the near term and they may affect mobility and logistics. Noboa has announced an increase in collaboration with US forces, which have already participated in operations targeting criminal groups within Ecuadorian territory.

Further captures of senior criminal figures are likely to trigger retaliatory violence by criminal groups or lead to power vacuums, triggering clashes or attacks among rival criminal organisations.

Outlook

A heightened security presence and operations are likely to continue in the coming months, focused on areas with high criminal activity. The declaration of new SoEs is also possible in case of a further increase in criminal violence.

Criminal activity, including business extortion, drug trafficking, illegal mining and attacks among rival gang members, is likely to show a sustained trend, particularly in areas considered HIGH-risk.

A perception of weakening security presence following the end of the SoEs could encourage further criminal action, including increases in business extortion, kidnapping, attacks against the security forces or turf conflict among criminal groups.

Context

At least 19 SoEs were enacted and renewed almost continuously since January 2024 across the country in response to a significant increase in criminal violence. In the same month, a state of ‘internal armed conflict’ was declared following the escape from prison of Los Choneros leader Adolfo Macias, also known as ‘Fito’, and an armed attack on a national TV station by this criminal group.

Heightened security operations have aimed to reduce criminal activity and violence. However, they have drawn criticism for alleged human rights abuses, as the security forces have reportedly made arbitrary detentions in some cases. Moreover, critics of measures such as SoEs dispute their efficacy, as certain studies show an increase in criminal activity and violence even when SoEs are in effect.