Monitor developments, expect heightened security following first round of presidential election (Revised)
Level: Notice
Location: Colombia
Category: Election, Violent crime, Police/security operation
Monitor developments and expect heightened security measures following the first round of the presidential election. The 31 May vote passed without any major security incidents. According to preliminary results, a run-off will be held on 21 June between Ivan Cepeda, the candidate of the incumbent Pacto Historico party, and the far-right independent candidate Abelardo de la Espriella. President Gustavo Petro has rejected the results of the preliminary count, alleging irregularities. Cepeda has also called for clarification of the results. Although the security environment should remain stable, the political environment is likely to remain tense ahead of the scrutinised results.
Advice
- Expect heightened security measures around key government buildings. Exercise enhanced vigilance near such locations and report any suspicious behaviour or objects to the authorities.
- In the event of unrest or an armed attack, leave the area immediately and relocate to a secure location from which to stand fast. Contact your support network in such an event.
- Abide by all directives issued by the authorities, including any election-related restrictions. Plan journeys accounting for the temporary closure of land and sea borders. Reconfirm the status of all borders before undertaking travel.
- Liaise with local contacts for information on any planned or spontaneous election-related gatherings in your area. Expect localised disruption during any such events and avoid them as a precaution.
- Monitor our Colombia alerts for updates.
More detail
Impact
No major security incidents were reported on election day. A grenade was thrown at police officers in El Paujil (Caqueta department) but caused no casualties.
Following the announcement of the results, celebratory events and sporadic protests are likely, particularly in major cities. Election-related gatherings will take place in public squares, near government buildings and at other prominent landmarks.
Large-scale unrest remains unlikely. However, isolated clashes between rival supporters, politically motivated roadblocks, and demonstrations in major cities are possible, particularly if fraud allegations persist.
Violence by armed groups active in southern departments has recently increased (see related alert). However, the leftist guerrilla National Liberation Army (ELN) and Estado Mayor Central (EMC) organisations announced unilateral ceasefires to coincide with the election period. The ELN truce is due to last until 2 June, while the EMC has committed to suspending armed activity until 10 June. The credibility of the ceasefires remains uncertain.
Outlook
Deep polarisation between the two candidates, along with Petro’s rejection of the preliminary results, will fuel political tensions ahead of the scrutinised results. The build up to the run-off is likely to be characterised by heightened political tensions and polarised rhetoric.
There is a low likelihood of political violence following polling day. Adherence to the ELN and EMC ceasefires is likely to be limited, with splinter factions and other armed groups still liable to carry out attacks. Most incidents should remain small-scale, involving extortion and intimidation. The primary targets will be local political figures, activists and the security forces. It is unlikely that civilians will be singled out, though those in the vicinity of an attack will face incidental risks.
Most guerrilla attacks will occur in HIGH-risk rural areas. Such incidents in large urban centres, such as the capital Bogota, are unlikely, but isolated incidents cannot be ruled out.
Context
According to the preliminary count, both candidates failed to secure the 50% majority needed in the first round. De la Espriella secured 43.7% of the vote and Cepeda obtained 40.9%.
Petro has said he will only recognise the scrutinised official results, which can take up to a week to emerge. Meanwhile, De la Espriella warned against any attempt to challenge the election results and called on the security forces to defend the constitutional order if Petro’s government disregards the results.
The electoral period has been marked by persistent concerns over political violence and intimidation. Notable incidents include the assassinations of presidential pre-candidate and senator Miguel Uribe in August 2025 and, more recently, Rogers Devia Escobar, the former mayor of Cubarral (Meta department), on 16 May. These events highlight the potential risks faced by political figures during campaign activities.